Better weather and profit-taking were the likely culprits driving crop futures to losses Monday, making them the weakest component of the commodities complex.
“There was a fair amount of pressure on the U.S. market at times,” said broker Ken Ball of P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.
“The weather’s looking a bit better. The rains (in the Midwest) have lightened up.”
Heavy rains from early June to early July caused much stress to U.S. corn, wheat and soybean crops in the eastern corn belt and caused harvest problems for winter wheat in large areas.
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Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures touched a two-week high on Friday on worries that heat may threaten U.S. crops and expectations that the country’s biofuel policy would boost demand for soyoil, analysts said.
That helped create a rally that recovered crop futures prices from dreary early summer lows.
But with the lessening of the saturation in recent days, crops in deluged areas are looking better, giving many traders a good excuse to lock in profits on recent successful bullish bets.
Ball said canola prices mostly kept pace with U.S. soybeans and components, but only after recent days in which canola lost some of its relative premium to soybeans.
However, he is still bullish canola, at least in relative terms to other vegetable oil crops.
“It still looks like a crop that’s below annual usage rates, so there’s still a rationing that has to be done,” said Ball.
“That’ll continue to support canola.”
The strong U.S. dollar and weak Canadian loonie helped keep canola flat, with the U.S. dollar also part of the reason that commodities were relatively soft Monday.
Oil World magazine projected lower canola oil carryout stocks for 2015-16.
The blurry picture of western Canadian crops might be cleaned up a bit by the CWB crop tour, which begins tomorrow morning and runs to Friday.
Analysts and crop watchers will leave from Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Calgary to travel through farm country, checking on crops to see what’s really there.
Anyone interested in seeing what those on the tour are seeing can look at The Western Producer’s website or follow the progress of its reporters on Twitter at #CWBtour15.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 74 cents to US$50.15 per barrel.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015 516.90 -4.50 -0.86%
Canola Jan 2016 516.80 -4.70 -0.90%
Canola Mar 2016 513.10 -5.00 -0.97%
Canola May 2016 508.10 -5.20 -1.01%
Canola Jul 2016 502.00 -5.30 -1.04%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 229.00 -5.00 -2.14%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 229.00 -5.00 -2.14%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016 233.00 -4.00 -1.69%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 335.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 345.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016 360.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2015 217.40 -1.00 -0.46%
Barley Dec 2015 218.10 -2.30 -1.04%
Barley Mar 2016 220.10 -2.30 -1.03%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2015 1007.75 -7 -0.69%
Soybeans Sep 2015 998.25 -7.5 -0.75%
Soybeans Nov 2015 999.5 -7.25 -0.72%
Soybeans Jan 2016 1005.5 -7.25 -0.72%
Soybeans Mar 2016 1000.25 -7 -0.69%
Soybeans May 2016 992 -7 -0.70%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 356 -5.1 -1.41%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015 348.5 -4.5 -1.27%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015 343.5 -5 -1.43%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015 31.68 -0.1 -0.31%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015 31.78 -0.09 -0.28%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015 31.86 -0.08 -0.25%
Corn Sep 2015 405 -15.25 -3.63%
Corn Dec 2015 416 -15.25 -3.54%
Corn Mar 2016 426.25 -15.25 -3.45%
Corn May 2016 432.25 -15 -3.35%
Corn Jul 2016 436.75 -14.5 -3.21%
Oats Sep 2015 241.25 -9 -3.60%
Oats Dec 2015 253.5 -9 -3.43%
Oats Mar 2016 264.75 -9.75 -3.55%
Oats May 2016 267.75 -9.75 -3.51%
Oats Jul 2016 268.75 -9.75 -3.50%
Wheat Sep 2015 532.75 -21.25 -3.84%
Wheat Dec 2015 542.5 -21 -3.73%
Wheat Mar 2016 551.75 -20.25 -3.54%
Wheat May 2016 556.5 -19.5 -3.39%
Wheat Jul 2016 557.25 -19 -3.30%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 559 -15.75 -2.74%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 576 -15 -2.54%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 591 -14.25 -2.35%
Spring Wheat May 2016 600.5 -13.75 -2.24%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 606.75 -13.5 -2.18%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 525.5 -21 -3.84%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 545.25 -20.75 -3.67%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 559.5 -20.75 -3.58%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 568.25 -20.5 -3.48%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 574.5 -20.5 -3.45%
