Weather improvement drops crop futures

Better weather and profit-taking were the likely culprits driving crop futures to losses Monday, making them the weakest component of the commodities complex.

“There was a fair amount of pressure on the U.S. market at times,” said broker Ken Ball of P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.

“The weather’s looking a bit better. The rains (in the Midwest) have lightened up.”

Heavy rains from early June to early July caused much stress to U.S. corn, wheat and soybean crops in the eastern corn belt and caused harvest problems for winter wheat in large areas.

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That helped create a rally that recovered crop futures prices from dreary early summer lows.

But with the lessening of the saturation in recent days, crops in deluged areas are looking better, giving many traders a good excuse to lock in profits on recent successful bullish bets.

Ball said canola prices mostly kept pace with U.S. soybeans and components, but only after recent days in which canola lost some of its relative premium to soybeans.

However, he is still bullish canola, at least in relative terms to other vegetable oil crops.

“It still looks like a crop that’s below annual usage rates, so there’s still a rationing that has to be done,” said Ball.

“That’ll continue to support canola.”

The strong U.S. dollar and weak Canadian loonie helped keep canola flat, with the U.S. dollar also part of the reason that commodities were relatively soft Monday.

Oil World magazine projected lower canola oil carryout stocks for 2015-16.

The blurry picture of western Canadian crops might be cleaned up a bit by the CWB crop tour, which begins tomorrow morning and runs to Friday.

Analysts and crop watchers will leave from Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Calgary to travel through farm country, checking on crops to see what’s really there.

Anyone interested in seeing what those on the tour are seeing can look at The Western Producer’s website or follow the progress of its reporters on Twitter at #CWBtour15.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 74 cents to US$50.15 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US77.03 cents, up from 76.93 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2982.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015   516.90   -4.50   -0.86%
Canola Jan 2016   516.80   -4.70   -0.90%
Canola Mar 2016   513.10   -5.00   -0.97%
Canola May 2016   508.10   -5.20   -1.01%
Canola Jul 2016   502.00   -5.30   -1.04%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015   229.00   -5.00   -2.14%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015   229.00   -5.00   -2.14%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016   233.00   -4.00   -1.69%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015   335.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015   345.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016   360.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2015   217.40   -1.00   -0.46%
Barley Dec 2015   218.10   -2.30   -1.04%
Barley Mar 2016   220.10   -2.30   -1.03%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2015   1007.75   -7   -0.69%
Soybeans Sep 2015   998.25   -7.5   -0.75%
Soybeans Nov 2015   999.5   -7.25   -0.72%
Soybeans Jan 2016   1005.5   -7.25   -0.72%
Soybeans Mar 2016   1000.25   -7   -0.69%
Soybeans May 2016   992   -7   -0.70%

Soybean Meal Aug 2015   356   -5.1   -1.41%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015   348.5   -4.5   -1.27%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015   343.5   -5   -1.43%

Soybean Oil Aug 2015   31.68   -0.1   -0.31%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015   31.78   -0.09   -0.28%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015   31.86   -0.08   -0.25%

Corn Sep 2015   405   -15.25   -3.63%
Corn Dec 2015   416   -15.25   -3.54%
Corn Mar 2016   426.25   -15.25   -3.45%
Corn May 2016   432.25   -15   -3.35%
Corn Jul 2016   436.75   -14.5   -3.21%

Oats Sep 2015   241.25   -9   -3.60%
Oats Dec 2015   253.5   -9   -3.43%
Oats Mar 2016   264.75   -9.75   -3.55%
Oats May 2016   267.75   -9.75   -3.51%
Oats Jul 2016   268.75   -9.75   -3.50%

Wheat Sep 2015   532.75   -21.25   -3.84%
Wheat Dec 2015   542.5   -21   -3.73%
Wheat Mar 2016   551.75   -20.25   -3.54%
Wheat May 2016   556.5   -19.5   -3.39%
Wheat Jul 2016   557.25   -19   -3.30%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2015   559   -15.75   -2.74%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015   576   -15   -2.54%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016   591   -14.25   -2.35%
Spring Wheat May 2016   600.5   -13.75   -2.24%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016   606.75   -13.5   -2.18%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015   525.5   -21   -3.84%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015   545.25   -20.75   -3.67%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   559.5   -20.75   -3.58%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016   568.25   -20.5   -3.48%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   574.5   -20.5   -3.45%