Canola ended a waffling week with an up day, as Canadian dollar weakness helped strengthen what had been a weakening commodity.
November canola edged above $500 per tonne and January pushed to $505.70, as the loonie weakened to almost 79 cents U.S.
Generally it was a day that ended with little movement in most crop futures.
It’s an odd time in the canola market, with traders, analysts and hedgers not sure what to expect from the canola crop now growing on the Canadian Prairies.
On one hand, most of the canola zone is outside the drought zone that has been ravaging spring wheat.
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But on the other hand, some of that dryness affects the edges of the canola heartland. As well, much of the canola area had early problems with excessive moisture and other conditions that don’t predispose a crop to maximum yield.
The heat blast at the end of July also threatened the yield potential when thousands of fields were blasted at a key time for pod development. How much damage was done won’t be known for weeks.
“I can’t see that we still have a 20 million tonne crop,” said Ken Ball, a broker with P.I. Financial.
“It’s more in the 18-19 million tonne range. But we used over 20 million tonnes last year.”
That sets up a bullish prospect for canola some time in the coming months.
“We know the canola market has a rationing job ahead of it. We don’t know if it’s a one, two or three million tonne rationing job.”
Canola crush margins have weakened recently after a strong year for the processors.
In the 2016-17 crop year, which ended July 31, canola crushers processed 9.14 million tonnes of canola, versus 8.32 million in 2015-16. That represents a use of 88.1 percent of capacity versus 84 percent the year before, according to estimates of the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
Canadian crushers are likely to slow processing in coming weeks for their yearly maintenance, as the old crop virtually runs out and the new crop still has a few weeks until large amounts are available to crush.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 55 cents US$49.58 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US79.02 cents, down from 79.21 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2655.
Canadian unemployment rate in July slipped to 6.3 percent, the lowest since October 2008. The U.s. rate droppd to 4.3 percent.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 66.01 points, or 0.43 percent, at 15,257.97.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3 percent to end at 22,092.81, an all-time high.
The S&P 500 gained 0.19 percent to 2,476.83 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.18 percent to 6,351.56.
For the week, the TSX composite was up 0.9 percent, the Dow climbed 1.2 percent, the S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent and the Nasdaq fell 0.4 percent.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 17 500.30s +2.70 +0.54%
Canola Jan 18 505.70s +2.80 +0.56%
Canola Mar 18 509.50s +2.80 +0.55%
Canola May 18 511.90s +2.40 +0.47%
Canola Jul 18 513.90s +2.00 +0.39%
Milling Wheat Oct 17 277.00s +3.00 +1.09%
Milling Wheat Dec 17 280.00s +3.00 +1.08%
Milling Wheat Mar 18 286.00s +3.00 +1.06%
Durum Wheat Oct 17 313.00s +4.00 +1.29%
Durum Wheat Dec 17 314.00s +4.00 +1.29%
Barley Oct 17 145.00s unch unch
Barley Dec 17 141.00s unch unch
Barley Mar 18 141.00s unch unch
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybeans Aug 17 949-2s -1-2 -0.13%
Soybeans Sep 17 952-2s -1-6 -0.18%
Soybeans Nov 17 956-6s -3-6 -0.39%
Soybeans Jan 18 965-6s -4-0 -0.41%
Soybeans Mar 18 973-4s -4-2 -0.43%
Soybean Meal Aug 17 303.5s -2.8 -0.91%
Soybean Meal Sep 17 305.3s -3.0 -0.97%
Soybean Meal Oct 17 306.8s -3.2 -1.03%
Soybean Oil Aug 17 33.60s +0.22 +0.66%
Soybean Oil Sep 17 33.69s +0.21 +0.63%
Soybean Oil Oct 17 33.80s +0.20 +0.60%
Corn Sep 17 366-4s +3-0 +0.83%
Corn Dec 17 381-0s +3-2 +0.86%
Corn Mar 18 392-4s +2-6 +0.71%
Corn May 18 398-0s +2-6 +0.70%
Corn Jul 18 403-4s +2-6 +0.69%
Oats Sep 17 283-6s -1-4 -0.53%
Oats Dec 17 284-2s -1-4 -0.52%
Oats Mar 18 285-4s -1-2 -0.44%
Oats May 18 284-6s -1-0 -0.35%
Oats Jul 18 283-4s -1-0 -0.35%
Wheat Sep 17 454-6s -3-0 -0.66%
Wheat Dec 17 482-4s -2-4 -0.52%
Wheat Mar 18 503-6s -2-6 -0.54%
Wheat May 18 517-6s -2-6 -0.53%
Wheat Jul 18 526-2s -3-2 -0.61%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 17 716-2s +3-0 +0.42%
Spring Wheat Dec 17 729-2s +3-0 +0.41%
Spring Wheat Mar 18 730-4s +1-6 +0.24%
Spring Wheat Jul 18 710-4s +2-0 +0.28%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 17 459-4s -0-2 -0.05%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 17 487-2s -0-2 -0.05%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 505-2s -0-2 -0.05%
Hard Red Wheat May 18 519-2s unch unch
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 534-2s unch unch
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Aug 17 115.450s +0.225 +0.20%
Live Cattle Oct 17 114.100s -0.725 -0.63%
Live Cattle Dec 17 115.175s -0.725 -0.63%
Feeder Cattle Aug 17 149.950s -0.700 -0.46%
Feeder Cattle Sep 17 150.850s -0.350 -0.23%
Feeder Cattle Oct 17 149.925s -0.450 -0.30%
Lean Hogs Aug 17 83.225s +1.250 +1.52%
Lean Hogs Oct 17 66.775s +1.275 +1.95%
Lean Hogs Dec 17 61.450s +0.925 +1.53%
