The U.S. Department of Agriculture increased its forecast of Brazil’s soybean crop more than expected on Thursday, putting downward pressure on oilseeds.
But in the end, May soybeans fell only about one percent and canola barely budged.
The USDA pegged Brazil’s soybean crop at 108 million tonnes, up four million from the previous month and two million more than the trade expected.
While the extent of the increase in Brazil’s crop was more than the average of pre-report private forecasts, it was no surprise that Brazil is harvesting a record shattering large crop, so that might account for the limited market response.
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Brazil’s agricultural statistics agency Conab by coincidence also issued a new estimate for the country’s soybean crop, raising it to 107.6 million tonnes, almost identical to the USDA number.
The USDA also said that the flood of Brazilian soybeans would limit the amount the United States will export this year. With fewer exports, the USDA also raised its year end U.S. soybean stocks forecast to 435 million bushels, up 15 million from the month before.
The weak Canadian dollar, now trading at about US74 cents, provided support to canola.
The USDA also raised its forecast for Brazil’s corn crop, to 91.5 million tonnes, up five million from last month.
Conab pegged Brazil’s corn crop at 88.9 million tonnes.
USDA kept its forecast of Argentina’s soy crop unchanged at 55.5 million tonnes and raised the corn outlook for that country one million tonnes to 37.5 million.
WHEAT
USDA’s numbers for U.S. corn and wheat ending stocks came as expected.
It raised it estimate of Australia’s wheat crop by two million tonnes to 35 million and Argentina by one million to 16 million.
It sees global wheat stocks at the end of the year climbing to almost 250 million tonnes, up about one million from last month and about 10 million more than at the end of 2015-16.
Chicago corn futures fell 1.4 percent but wheat was mixed with Chicago and Kansas winter wheat down a few cents but Minneapolis up a few cents.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Crude oil fell below US$50 a barrel, the lowest price so far in 2017, on rising U.S. inventories as signs that OPEC’s production cuts are not addressing the global glut as producers in the United States gear up to raise production.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell, dropping $1 to US$49.28 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.00 cents, down from 74.11 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.351.
Stock markets were little changed in later session trade.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2017 526.50 -0.70 -0.13%
Canola Jul 2017 528.90 -0.50 -0.09%
Canola Nov 2017 505.90 -1.30 -0.26%
Canola Jan 2018 511.60 -1.30 -0.25%
Canola Mar 2018 515.90 -1.10 -0.21%
Milling Wheat May 2017 235.00 +3.00 +1.29%
Milling Wheat Jul 2017 237.00 +2.00 +0.85%
Milling Wheat Oct 2017 229.00 +2.00 +0.88%
Durum Wheat May 2017 282.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2017 281.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2017 268.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2017 137.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2017 1000.25 -10.75 -1.06%
Soybeans May 2017 1011.00 -10.75 -1.05%
Soybeans Jul 2017 1020.50 -10.75 -1.04%
Soybeans Aug 2017 1021.50 -10.25 -0.99%
Soybeans Sep 2017 1010.00 -8.50 -0.83%
Soybeans Nov 2017 1004.50 -5.75 -0.57%
Soybean Meal Mar 2017 324.10 -2.40 -0.74%
Soybean Meal May 2017 328.50 -2.60 -0.79%
Soybean Meal Jul 2017 331.90 -2.30 -0.69%
Soybean Oil Mar 2017 32.87 -0.42 -1.26%
Soybean Oil May 2017 33.11 -0.43 -1.28%
Soybean Oil Jul 2017 33.38 -0.43 -1.27%
Corn Mar 2017 359.75 -5.50 -1.51%
Corn May 2017 367.00 -5.25 -1.41%
Corn Jul 2017 374.50 -5.25 -1.38%
Corn Sep 2017 381.25 -5.00 -1.29%
Corn Dec 2017 388.25 -4.50 -1.15%
Oats Mar 2017 264.00 -3.25 -1.22%
Oats May 2017 240.50 -3.25 -1.33%
Oats Jul 2017 233.00 -3.25 -1.38%
Oats Sep 2017 230.00 -3.00 -1.29%
Oats Dec 2017 231.50 -1.50 -0.64%
Wheat Mar 2017 426.00 -1.50 -0.35%
Wheat May 2017 444.00 -3.00 -0.67%
Wheat Sep 2017 474.75 -3.00 -0.63%
Wheat Dec 2017 492.50 -3.00 -0.61%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 534.75 +8.25 +1.57%
Spring Wheat May 2017 538.75 +4.25 +0.80%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 546.25 +3.75 +0.69%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 552.75 +2.50 +0.45%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 562.00 +1.25 +0.22%
Kansas
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 453.25 -3.75 -0.82%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 462.50 -3.50 -0.75%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 474.25 -3.50 -0.73%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 488.75 -3.00 -0.61%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 508.00 -2.25 -0.44%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 116.50 +0.53 +0.46%
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 106.72 +0.47 +0.44%
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 102.40 +0.35 +0.34%
Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017 126.15 +1.78 +1.43%
Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 124.62 +1.85 +1.51%
Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 124.08 +1.78 +1.46%
Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 68.08 -0.34 -0.50%
Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 73.08 -0.27 -0.37%
Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 76.92 -0.41 -0.53%
