January canola futures tickled the $500 level following bullish soybean numbers released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, but failed to break through.
The over-$10 per tonne rise in both November and January contracts was, however, a welcome continuation of the recovery from $480-area levels that had put a pall on farmer prospects for the crop.
The USDA crop production estimates dropped corn and soybean average yields both from previous estimates and from analyst expectations.
Crop futures soared quickly after the report was issued, but most settled back during the day and closed only moderately higher. Corn contracts closed about 10 cents higher on most contracts and spring wheat contracts closed less than two cents per bushel higher for the December contract.
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Soybeans closed up 43 cents per bushel for November and up 42 cents for the January. Canola rose $10.20 per tonne to $493.90 for November and up $10.30 to $499.50 for January.
The strong price motion higher was a seldom-witness phenomenon in recent months, but many analysts doubted it necessarily signaled a bottom of the market or a turnaround in direction.
“Everyone is bullish the yield, so you can be bearish the price,” said analyst Lorne Boundy of Paterson GlobalFoods.
“I think the longer term trend is still to the downside, and there might be a good opportunity here on some short-covering” to price unpriced crop.
The bullish USDA numbers, accepted entirely or not, boosted the grains category of commodities from the weakest element of the complex Monday morning to the strongest by the time markets closed.
ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 493.90+10.20+2.11%
Canola Jan 2014 499.50+10.30+2.11%
Canola Mar 2014 505.10+10.50+2.12%
Canola May 2014 511.10+11.00+2.20%
Canola Jul 2014 516.30+11.70+2.32%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 252.00-4.00 -1.56%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 256.00-5.00 -1.92%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 261.00-5.00 -1.88%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 286.00-5.00 -1.72%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 290.00-5.00 -1.69%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 300.00-5.00 -1.64%
Barley Oct 2013 189.00unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 194.00unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 194.00unch 0.00%
American crops in cents US per bushel, soybean meal in $US per short ton and soybean oil in
cents US per pound
Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2013 1373.75 +33 +2.46%
Soybeans Sep 2013 1256.5+38 +3.12%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1225.25 +43 +3.64%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1230 +42 +3.54%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1232.75 +40.25+3.38%
Soybeans May 2014 1231.25 +38.25+3.21%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013 425.7 +5.2 +1.24%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 402.7 +12.1 +3.10%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013 375.5 +15.5 +4.31%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013 42.32 +0.92 +2.22%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 42.38 +0.88 +2.12%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013 42.48 +0.88 +2.12%
Corn Sep 2013 472 +6.25 +1.34%
Corn Dec 2013 464 +10.75+2.37%
Corn Mar 2014 477.25+10.5 +2.25%
Corn May 2014 485.5 +10.5 +2.21%
Corn Jul 2014 491.25+10 +2.08%
Oats Sep 2013 362.25+3.25 +0.91%
Oats Dec 2013 330.25+3.5 +1.07%
Oats Mar 2014 334 +3 +0.91%
Oats May 2014 334.25+3.25 +0.98%
Oats Jul 2014 338.5 +3.25 +0.97%
Wheat Sep 2013 635 +1.5 +0.24%
Wheat Dec 2013 649 +1.75 +0.27%
Wheat Mar 2014 663.5 +3 +0.45%
Wheat May 2014 672 +3.5 +0.52%
Wheat Jul 2014 670.5 +5.5 +0.83%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 736.75+4.75 +0.65%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 741.5 +1.75 +0.24%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 753.5 +1.75 +0.23%
Spring Wheat May 2014 760.25+1.25 +0.16%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 764 +0.5 +0.07%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 700.25+3 +0.43%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 706.75+3.25 +0.46%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 715.5 +3.25 +0.46%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 717.25+3.25 +0.46%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 702.5 +4 +0.57%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 14.0 cents at $106.11 US per barrel.
The Bank of Canada rate for the loonie at noon was 97.12 cents US, up from 97.06 cents the
previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0297 Cdn.
