USDA lowballs soy plantings, oilseed futures rally

Canola futures rose Thursday on fund and crusher buying as well as a USDA forecast of soybean acreage that was well below expectations.

Funds added to their long position in May canola and also rolled part of their March long position into May, a trader told Reuters.

March canola gained $3.60 to close at $473.50 per tonne. The price is the highest since July.

The USDA projected soybean plantings at 83.5 million acres, down slightly from 83.7 million in 2014-15.

The forecast was surprising as private analysts expect farmers to plant more soybeans this spring, up between three and seven million, citing lower planting costs for soy compared to corn.

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Canola’s gain was limited by falling soy oil futures.

The USDA projected 2015-16 U.S. corn plantings at 89 million acres, down from 90.6 million in 2014-15. That supported corn futures, as did data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing weekly ethanol stocks declined for the first time since December.

Corn rose more than one percent. The previous three days corn had fallen, but generally it is in a 10 cents trading range for most of the month.

Wheat fell, with Minneapolis spring wheat dropping the most, pressured by the USDA planting outlook and news yesterday that Egypt had cancelled an order for American wheat because it was too expensive.

The USDA forecast 2015-16 all-wheat plantings at 55.5 million acres, down from 56.8 million in 2014-15.

Seedings of winter wheat are already down 1.9 million acres from a year ago, but plantings of spring wheat should rise, particularly durum, said the USDA forecast.

Intense cold is spreading across the Midwest. Although most soft winter wheat has snow cover there are patches at risk of winter kill.

The seeding forecasts released today are USDA’s projections. The first farmer survey of planting intentions is scheduled for release March 31.

Reuters reported truckers in Brazil’s main soy- and corn-producing state of Mato Grosso limited the flow of grain for the second consecutive day on the highway leading to the main ports ahead of the peak of the harvest, protesting a government increase in fuel prices.
The Alberta Canola Growers weekly feed price report says feed barley at Lethbridge the week of Feb. 9-13 ranged $196-$199 to average $197, down $2 from the week before and down $9 from the same point in January. The report said feed peas in Lethbridge Feb. 9-13 ranged $234-$240 to average $237, up $1 from he week before but down $5 from the same point in January.

Some seed companies and analysts think Ukraine’s corn acreage could fall five to seven percent this spring because of the weaker local currency that makes imported quality seed and fertilizer more expensive. Also farmers are expected to scrimp on applications of inputs. Similar things were said last year, but Ukraine wound up producing a bumper harvest. Still, the situation is worse this year.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 98 cents to US$51.16 per barrel on growing weekly stocks in the United States.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US80.09 cents, down from US80.29 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2486.

Based on the latest available data, The Toronto Stock Exchange composite fell 34.58 points of 0.23 percent to 15,178.17

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 43.95 points, or 0.24 percent, to 17,985.9, the S&P 500 lost 2.19 points, or 0.1 percent, to 2,097.49 and the Nasdaq Composite added 18.34 points, or 0.37 percent, to 4,924.70.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2015 473.50 +3.60 +0.77%

Canola May 2015 467.90 +4.80 +1.04%

Canola Jul 2015 462.20 +4.00 +0.87%

Canola Nov 2015 451.10 +3.80 +0.85%

Canola Jan 2016 452.70 +3.50 +0.78%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015 224.00 -2.00 -0.88%

Milling Wheat May 2015 233.00 -1.00 -0.43%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015 235.00 -1.00 -0.42%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015 333.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015 323.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015 313.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2015 184.00 -1.00 -0.54%

Barley May 2015 186.00 -1.00 -0.53%

Barley Jul 2015 188.00 -1.00 -0.53%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2015 1007.25 +11.5 +1.15%

Soybeans May 2015 1011.25 +12 +1.20%

Soybeans Jul 2015 1015 +11 +1.10%

Soybeans Aug 2015 1013.75 +11 +1.10%

Soybeans Sep 2015 998.25 +10.25 +1.04%

Soybeans Nov 2015 986.25 +9.75 +1.00%

Soybean Meal Mar 2015 347.5 +8.9 +2.63%

Soybean Meal May 2015 339.7 +8.2 +2.47%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015 336 +7.3 +2.22%

Soybean Oil Mar 2015 31.83 -0.18 -0.56%

Soybean Oil May 2015 32.04 -0.16 -0.50%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015 32.22 -0.14 -0.43%

Corn Mar 2015 389.75 +6 +1.56%

Corn May 2015 397.75 +5.75 +1.47%

Corn Jul 2015 405.25 +5.75 +1.44%

Corn Sep 2015 412 +5.5 +1.35%

Corn Dec 2015 419.75 +5.25 +1.27%

Oats Mar 2015 277 +2.75 +1.00%

Oats May 2015 274 +2.5 +0.92%

Oats Jul 2015 276.5 +2 +0.73%

Oats Sep 2015 281.5 +1.75 +0.63%

Oats Dec 2015 285 +2.25 +0.80%

Wheat Mar 2015 527.75 unch 0.00%

Wheat May 2015 519.5 -4.25 -0.81%

Wheat Jul 2015 521.75 -4.25 -0.81%

Wheat Sep 2015 529.75 -4.25 -0.80%

Wheat Dec 2015 542 -4.25 -0.78%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 574 -8 -1.37%

Spring Wheat May 2015 574.5 -5.75 -0.99%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 578.25 -3.75 -0.64%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015 584 -4.25 -0.72%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015 594.5 -4.5 -0.75%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 544.5 -3.5 -0.64%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015 545.5 -4 -0.73%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 551.75 -3.75 -0.68%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 563.5 -3.5 -0.62%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 577.75 -3.5 -0.60%

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