KIEV (Reuters) ¬— Crisis-hit Ukraine’s corn crop is expected to slump almost 20 percent this year, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, as farmers from the major global exporter feel the impact of reduced financing.
As Ukraine teeters on the brink of dismemberment, the crisis has toughened lending conditions and some farmers have been forced to use cheaper seed or cut the amount of fertilizer they can purchase.
Others have struggled to secure loans to replace old equipment.
A survey of 11 traders and analysts produced a median forecast of 25.0 million tonnes for this year’s corn crop, down 19.1 percent from last year’s record 30.9 million.
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The crop would still, however, be the second largest on record and more than double the 11.9 million produced just four years ago.
The survey gave a median estimate for harvested area of 11.6 million acres, down less than three percent from the prior season’s 11.9 million, while yield was expected to fall more sharply by 14 percent.
“The yield could fall because of a lack of funds,” an international trader working in Ukraine said.
Last year’s record yield was also boosted by near ideal weather, while conditions this year appear not quite as favourable.
“Last year’s weather conditions were perfect while this year they are just good,” one analyst said.
The International Grains Council in late April forecast Ukraine’s corn crop would total 26.8 million tonnes. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to issue its first crop projection on Friday.
Farmers were hoping for help from the International Monetary Fund as the toughened lending conditions hit hard during the key spring sowing campaign.
“Once aid comes and the banking sector stabilizes, the agriculture sector will be the first to receive financing because it’s showing sustainable growth,” said Elena Voloshina, head of the International Finance Corporation — the World Bank’s private-sector financing arm — in Ukraine.
The country’s central bank said on Wednesday that Ukraine had received a first tranche worth about $3.2 billion from a $17 billion two-year aid program from the IMF.
