CHICAGO (Reuters) – The U.S. Department of Agriculture sees U.S. corn
and soybean exports generally increasing over the coming decade but the
U.S. share of global sales will shrink as competition from South
American producers heats up, the government said on Thursday.
In the USDA’s annual long-term projections report, laying out its
forecasts through 2027, the government said the United States should
keep its crown as the world’s biggest corn exporter over the decade. But
U.S. market share will fall below 30 percent by 2027 due to competition
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Brazil has already surpassed the United States as the world’s biggest
soybean exporter. Rising world demand for soybeans, especially from
China, should promote continued growth of U.S. exports in the coming
years, but Brazil should strengthen its grip on the top slot, the USDA
said.
Soybeans remain more profitable than other crops in Brazil, and soy
acreage in the country will grow in excess of 2.5 percent per year over
the decade, the USDA said.
For wheat, the U.S. share of the global export market will continue to
shrink through 2027, even as the volume of U.S. wheat exports begins to
rising export competition from Russia, Ukraine, the European Union and
Canada.
Nominal farm-gate prices for U.S. corn and soybeans are expected to
improve steadily after hitting a bottom in the 2017/18 marketing year
begun Sept. 1, 2017, the USDA said. However, real prices, adjusted for
inflation, are expected to decline slightly through 2027, the report
said.
U.S. farmers will plant more soybeans than corn starting in 2019, the
USDA said, and that trend should continue through the decade in response
to growing domestic and global demand for the oilseed.
In its 10-year supply and demand tables, which were released on Nov. 28
and repeated in Thursday’s full report, the USDA projected 2018 U.S.
plantings of both soybeans and corn at 91 million acres.
In 2019, the USDA sees soybean acres holding at 91 million acres, while
corn plantings fall to 90 million and shrink to 87.5 million by 2026.
U.S. wheat plantings for 2018 were forecast to hit a low of 45 million
acres – the lowest in records dating to 1919 – before rising slowly to
48 million acres by 2024/25. Farmers planted 46 million acres for
harvest in 2017.
