WASHINGTON (Reuters) — The United States is a month closer to bumper supplies of corn and soybeans, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday in its second look at the 2014-15 U.S. and world grain outlook, which included few major changes.
Domestic soybean supplies will dwindle to a roughly two-week supply ahead of a forecast record large crop of 3.635 billion bushels and a spike in 2014-15 ending stocks.
USDA trimmed its 2013-14 soybean ending stocks forecast to 125 million bushels, down five million from May, on a higher crush. Record high imports will help U.S. soybean crushers limp through to harvest.
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Forecasts for old- and new-crop corn ending stocks were unchanged on Wednesday at 1.146 billion bushels and 1.726 billion bushels respectively.
USDA will not make survey-based production forecasts for corn and soybeans until August. Weekly updates show both crops in strong shape despite a late start to planting, suggesting high yields could be on tap.
“Conditions in the most recent crop progress report are the best in four years for the aggregated 18 reported states, and better than any time since 2007 for the Corn Belt,” USDA said.
U.S. winter wheat production for 2014 will be down 10 percent from a year ago, at 1.38 billion bushels, and was cut another two percent from May.
USDA cut its hard red winter wheat crop estimate but raised its forecast for soft red winter wheat, the variety traded in Chicago. The SRW crop will still be down 20 percent on the year.
The all-wheat crop of 1.942 billion compares with a trade estimate of 1.964 billion and is down nine percent on the year.
USDA cited “reduced prospects for HRW wheat in the southern and central Plains and white winter wheat in the Pacific Northwest” for its lower forecast.
Global wheat supplies for 2014-15 were raised by 4.1 million tonnes, and projected ending stocks also rose. Crop estimates were raised for China, Russia, India and the EU, among others.
World corn and coarse grain stocks are also on the rise. USDA increased its 2013-14 corn production estimates for Brazil and India.
USDA sharply raised its 2014-15 U.S. sugar stocks to use ratio, to 15.8 percent from 9.1 percent in May based on rising imports.
