Tight stocks support old crop canola Wednesday

Concerns about tight stocks of canola in Canada and also tight stocks of soybeans in the U.S. supported old crop oilseed futures on Wednesday.

November canola ended unchanged from Tuesday’s close, while further out contracts were slightly lower.

The May contract might still be on the board but almost all the trade has switched to the July contract. May volume 25, July volume 13,875.

The first delivery day for ICE canola contracts is the first trading day of the contract month. The last trading day is the one preceding the 15^th calendar day of the delivery month. So the May contract will expire Tuesday May 14.

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Corn fell on a drier outlook for the Midwest after today’s showers are over.

Kansas and Minneapolis wheat contracts rose a little on concerns about the deteriorating condition of the hard red winter crop but benchmark Chicago dipped.

A Reuters story today noted that China has a record amount of soybeans scheduled to arrive May-July. The large quantity will meet reduced demand because bird flu has caused the culling of the chicken flock and also weak hog prices are causing Chinese producers to cut back their pig production.

This could result in China cancelling some cargos and that would have a negative effect on the price of soybeans and all oilseeds, including canola. The story also notes that Brazil is clearing up its soybean shipment backlog and delayed orders will arrive in China in the May-July period.

Private crop forecaster UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine’s rapeseed production could soar by 67.5 percent to 2.01 million tonnes this year.

Production of sunflowers and soybeans is also expected to be higher this year.

Most of Ukraine’s oilseed exports go to the European Union, which is seeding rapeseed production forecasts downgraded because of excess moisture and cold in Britain and parts of France.

The head of Wilmar International, a huge Singapore-based oilseed processor in China and throughout Asia, said in its quarterly report today that the China bird flu outbreak will affect meal consumption in the short term, but is not expected to have a long term effect.

There is a new twist on the possibility that late seeding in the U.S. could cause farmers to switch some corn fields to shorter season soybeans. Now, some are looking at areas where farmers harvest winter wheat and then immediately seed soybeans. The late development of the winter wheat crop could delay harvest past the point where it advisable to seed soybeans.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2013 632.30 +3.00 +0.48%

Canola Jul 2013 602.30 +3.00 +0.50%

Canola Nov 2013 536.40 unch 0.00%

Canola Jan 2014 537.00 -0.10 -0.02%

Canola Mar 2014 532.50 -0.90 -0.17%

Milling Wheat May 2013 292.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013 294.90 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2013 243.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2013 1479 +15.5 +1.06%

Soybeans Jul 2013 1390.75 +8.5 +0.61%

Soybeans Aug 2013 1329.5 unch 0.00%

Soybeans Sep 2013 1257 -1.5 -0.12%

Soybeans Nov 2013 1214.25 -0.25 -0.02%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1221.75 -0.5 -0.04%

Soybean Meal May 2013 425.3 +9 +2.16%

Soybean Meal Jul 2013 407.6 +4.3 +1.07%

Soybean Meal Aug 2013 385.2 +1.4 +0.36%

Soybean Oil May 2013 48.66 -0.43 -0.88%

Soybean Oil Jul 2013 48.82 -0.32 -0.65%

Soybean Oil Aug 2013 48.6 -0.36 -0.74%

Corn May 2013 675 -1.5 -0.22%

Corn Jul 2013 633 -7 -1.09%

Corn Sep 2013 553.75 -7.75 -1.38%

Corn Dec 2013 532 -7.25 -1.34%

Corn Mar 2014 542.75 -7.25 -1.32%

Oats May 2013 408.75 +1 +0.25%

Oats Jul 2013 378.25 +1 +0.27%

Oats Sep 2013 368 +1.75 +0.48%

Oats Dec 2013 359.25 -0.5 -0.14%

Oats Mar 2014 363.25 -1.25 -0.34%

Wheat May 2013 696.75 -2.75 -0.39%

Wheat Jul 2013 706 -3 -0.42%

Wheat Sep 2013 715.25 -3.5 -0.49%

Wheat Dec 2013 732.75 -3 -0.41%

Wheat Mar 2014 748 -2.5 -0.33%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2013 857.75 unch 0.00%

Spring Wheat Jul 2013 816.25 +6.5 +0.80%

Spring Wheat Sep 2013 810.75 +4.25 +0.53%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 818 +4.5 +0.55%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 827.25 +2.25 +0.27%

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat May 2013 771.75 +2 +0.26%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 760.25 +2.25 +0.30%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 770 +1.25 +0.16%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 787.5 +1.25 +0.16%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 800.5 +1 +0.13%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1 at $96.62 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 99.77 cents US, up from 99.48 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0023 Cdn.

In early tallies —

The TSX closed up 120.94 points or 0.97 percent at 12,585.05

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 19.96 points, or 0.13 percent, at 15,076.16.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 3.49 points, or 0.21 percent, at 1,629.45.

The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 9.61 points, or 0.28 percent, to 3,406.24.

About 440 listed U.S. companies have posted quarterly reports so far and earnings have largely been better than expected.

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