Tight stocks lift old crop canola, other crop futures down on warm forecast

Old crop canola futures rose Tuesday on tight stocks but new crop months were down a little on forecast for warmer weather next week that should melts snow and move us closer to seeding.

Slow farmer selling and steady demand supported the May and July contracts.

The market eagerly anticipates the Statistics Canada seeding intentions survey report out tomorrow. As usual though, people will say the data is out of date and that the late spring will force adjustments.

One thing that will affect the numbers is that there will likely be more summerfallow acres than previously expected due to the inability to seed.

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U.S. crop futures brushed off the crop progress report Monday, along with its data on slow seeding and deteriorating winter wheat condition and focused instead on a forecast for warm weather next week that will get soil temperatures in the Midwest up, allowing seeding. The idea that rain makes grain seems to be trumping concerns about late seeding.

There will be another freezing event Wednesday morning in much of the western hard red winter wheat belt.

The condition rating of the U.S. winter wheat crop in Monday’s USDA weekly crop progress report slipped only one percentage report but applies to all winter wheat, hard and soft. The soft crop is doing well, but in the hard red states, there was pretty strong deterioration in Texas, Kansas and Colorado although there was improvement in Oklahoma.

Ukraine’s government said it would lift its wheat export cap for the rest of the 2012-13 shipping season. That should allow shipments of about 500,000 tonnes.

Computer hackers broke into the AP news service’s Twitters feed today releasing a bogus report that there had been two explosions at the White House, briefly sending U.S. market reeling. They recovered once the report was shown to be false.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2013 639.60 +2.60 +0.41%

Canola Jul 2013 622.90 +2.40 +0.39%

Canola Nov 2013 554.30 -1.20 -0.22%

Canola Jan 2014 555.00 -0.90 -0.16%

Canola Mar 2014 549.50 -0.80 -0.15%

Milling Wheat May 2013 292.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2013 303.90 +0.30 +0.10%

Durum Wheat Jul 2013 303.90 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013 296.90 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2013 243.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2013 1419.75 +2.5 +0.18%

Soybeans Jul 2013 1358.5 -5.75 -0.42%

Soybeans Aug 2013 1298.75 -10.75 -0.82%

Soybeans Sep 2013 1236.5 -6.5 -0.52%

Soybeans Nov 2013 1196.25 -6.5 -0.54%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1204 -6.75 -0.56%

Soybean Meal May 2013 411.7 +1.7 +0.41%

Soybean Meal Jul 2013 397.9 -0.2 -0.05%

Soybean Meal Aug 2013 372.4 -3.4 -0.90%

Soybean Oil May 2013 48.57 -0.05 -0.10%

Soybean Oil Jul 2013 48.41 -0.18 -0.37%

Soybean Oil Aug 2013 48.27 -0.23 -0.47%

Corn May 2013 638.5 -7.25 -1.12%

Corn Jul 2013 614 -9.5 -1.52%

Corn Sep 2013 542.5 -13.5 -2.43%

Corn Dec 2013 522.75 -10.25 -1.92%

Corn Mar 2014 533.5 -10.25 -1.89%

Oats May 2013 397 -3.5 -0.87%

Oats Jul 2013 390.25 -2 -0.51%

Oats Sep 2013 366.5 -1 -0.27%

Oats Dec 2013 363.5 unch 0.00%

Oats Mar 2014 368 unch 0.00%

Soft red winter

Wheat May 2013 697.5 -4.75 -0.68%

Wheat Jul 2013 695.5 -7 -1.00%

Wheat Sep 2013 703 -7.25 -1.02%

Wheat Dec 2013 717 -7.25 -1.00%

Wheat Mar 2014 729.75 -7.75 -1.05%

Minneapolis hard red spring

Spring Wheat May 2013 815.25 -3.5 -0.43%

Spring Wheat Jul 2013 801 -2 -0.25%

Spring Wheat Sep 2013 793.5 -2.5 -0.31%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 799.5 -3.5 -0.44%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 811.5 -6.5 -0.79%

Kansas City hard red winter

KCBT Red Wheat May 2013 737.25 -2.25 -0.30%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 738.5 -4 -0.54%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 750 -4.75 -0.63%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 766.5 -5.25 -0.68%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 778.5 -5.75 -0.73%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped one cent at $89.18 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 97.48 cents US, up from 97.44 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0259 Cdn.

Economic data reports from Germany and China showed disappointing growth.

In early unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index closed almost unchanged at 12,090.94.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 152.29 points, or 1.05 percent, to end at 14,719.46.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 16.27 points, or 1.04 percent, to finish at 1,578.77.

The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 35.78 points, or 1.11 percent, to close at 3,269.33.

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