Tight cash supply lifts July canola

Canola buyers are bidding up the July contract to try to convince farmers to part with old crop canola supplies.

Tight cash supply and rising soybean prices supported canola Wednesday, with the July contract rising more than new crop November. There is now a $14.30 per tonne spread between old and new crop.

The market awaits Statistics Canada’s seeding survey, due for release Friday morning and the U.S Department of Agriculture’s planting report and quarterly stock numbers on Monday.

The average estimate of a Reuters trade survey ahead of the StatsCan report pegs canola plantings at 19.9 million acres, the same as last year. The StatsCan spring seeding intentions survey had put canola seeded area at 19.8 million acres.

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The StatsCan report should give an indication about how many acres could not be seeded because of excess moisture. It won’t report on the number of acres that have been washed out by recent heavy rain storms.

We’ll have coverage at Producer.com Friday morning on the StatsCan report and on Monday look for our on line coverage of the USDA report.

Soybeans crept higher on light technical buying and firm U.S. cash markets. Soy oil edged lower and palm oil was little changed on mildly positive news on Malaysian palm exports in the first 25 days of the month.

The USDA reports are expected to reflect the smallest U.S. June 1 soy stocks in 37 years and a record large planted acreage.

Gains in soybeans were limited by mostly favorable crop weather in the U.S. Midwest. The weather also weighed on corn futures, which fell less than ½ percent.

Most wheat crop edged higher on bargain buying and worries about hard red winter wheat crop downgrades due to harvest time rain.

The tight old crop soybean supply situation has accelerated canola exports to the U.S. To the end of April, 765,299 tonnes of canola have gone to the U.S. this crop year, more than double the amount shipped last year at the same point.

Many crops in Canada remain behind the normal development because of late seeding and cool weather. Crops prosper when it is not too hot and they have lots of moisture, however there are also worries about whether the plants will be mature before frosts hit.

The advance of the Indian monsoon remains behind the normal pace. Rainfall since June 1 is currently 38 percent behind a 50-year average. The lack of rain is delaying seeding, but the sowing season normally extends into July.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2014 483.30 +6.10 +1.28%

Canola Nov 2014 469.00 +3.30 +0.71%

Canola Jan 2015 473.00 +3.60 +0.77%

Canola Mar 2015 473.50 +3.30 +0.70%

Canola May 2015 474.00 +2.60 +0.55%

Milling Wheat Jul 2014 197.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014 198.00 +1.00 +0.51%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014 203.00 +2.00 +1.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2014 239.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014 230.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014 232.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2014 125.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2014 132.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2014 134.50 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2014 1415.75 +2.25 +0.16%

Soybeans Aug 2014 1361.75 +4 +0.29%

Soybeans Sep 2014 1265.5 +4.75 +0.38%

Soybeans Nov 2014 1229 +4.5 +0.37%

Soybeans Jan 2015 1235.5 +4.25 +0.35%

Soybeans Mar 2015 1241.5 +4.75 +0.38%

Soybean Meal Jul 2014 451.7 +3.3 +0.74%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014 437 +3.9 +0.90%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014 410.7 +3.4 +0.83%

Soybean Oil Jul 2014 40.65 -0.32 -0.78%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014 40.76 -0.31 -0.75%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014 40.81 -0.33 -0.80%

Corn Jul 2014 441 -2 -0.45%

Corn Sep 2014 435.75 -1 -0.23%

Corn Dec 2014 440 -0.75 -0.17%

Corn Mar 2015 450.75 -0.5 -0.11%

Corn May 2015 458 -0.5 -0.11%

Oats Jul 2014 334.5 -5 -1.47%

Oats Sep 2014 335 +0.5 +0.15%

Oats Dec 2014 331.75 -0.25 -0.08%

Oats Mar 2015 326.5 -2.25 -0.68%

Oats May 2015 320 -2.25 -0.70%

Wheat Jul 2014 575.5 +4.5 +0.79%

Wheat Sep 2014 584.25 +3.5 +0.60%

Wheat Dec 2014 606 +3.5 +0.58%

Wheat Mar 2015 628 +2.75 +0.44%

Wheat May 2015 641.5 +2.25 +0.35%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2014 673.75 -2.75 -0.41%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 684.75 +1.25 +0.18%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 696.75 +2.75 +0.40%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 709.5 +5.5 +0.78%

Spring Wheat May 2015 715.75 +5 +0.70%

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014 714 +8.5 +1.20%

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014 713.5 +9.75 +1.39%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014 719 +8.25 +1.16%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015 723.25 +7.5 +1.05%

KC HRW Wheat May 2015 720.75 +9.5 +1.34%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 47 cents at $106.50 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 93.27 cents US, up from 93.11 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0721 Cdn.

The U.S. Department of Commerce sharply downgraded its assessment of U.S. gross domestic product growth for the first quarter. It now believe the economy fell at a 2.9 percent annual rate, the sharpest decline in five years, instead of the one percent reduction it had reported last month.

But traders preferred to focus on signs that the economy is doing well now and major stock market indexes rose.

In unofficial tallies —

The TSX composite rose 12.27 points or 0.08 percent at 14,974.65

The Dow closed up 49.38 points or 0.29 percent at 16,867.51.

The S&P 500 rose 9.55 points or 0.49 percent at 1,959.53.

The Nasdaq composite rose 29.40 points or 0.68 percent at 4,379.76.