Canola futures closed up on Thursday but off the day’s highs, with continuing support from a weaker loonie and talk of new exports to China.
Soy oil closed higher, providing support for canola. Veg oil prices are supported by rising crude oil futures and smaller than expected production of palm oil.
Wheat, corn and soybean futures were lower even though weekly U.S. export sales of soybeans and corn topped market expectations. Wheat exports were within the range of expectations.
In wheat, Kansas hard red winter wheat led the declines, sinking 1.2 percent, as improving moisture conditions in the U.S. Plains boosted prospects for the crop that is now being seeded.
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Generally, the crop market continues to be limited by the advance of the U.S. harvest.
Almost all crop production areas of Brazil are expected to get rain in the coming seven days. That should provide relief to dry areas in central Brazil.
SASK CROP REPORT YIELD FORECAST
Today’s crop report said the harvest was mostly wrapped up. The department published its yield forecasts.
The estimates for wheat, durum and barley are significantly higher than the September forecast from Statistics Canada.
The province’s estimate for canola is the same as StatsCan.
Saskatchewan Agriculture yield forecasts (with Statistics Canada September forecast in brackets)
Hard red spring wheat 43 bushels/acre (39.4)
Durum 36 bu/acre (29.6)
Canola 34 bu/acre (34.1)
Barley 63 bu/acre (57.1)
Oats 89 bu/acre (92.9)
Peas 33 bu/acre (31.3)
Flax 21 bu/acre (18.1)
Soybeans 18 bu/acre (23.8)
Lentils 1,369 lb/acre (1,251)
Mustard 746 lb/acre (672)
EXPORTS
Canola exports in week 12, to Oct. 22, were 141,100 tonnes, the lowest since week seven, according to the weekly report from the Canadian Grain Commission.
The total to date remains above last year’s pace with 2.19 million tonnes exported, up from 1.87 million last year.
Wheat exports in week 12 were 271,800 tonnes, the largest in three weeks.
Wheat exports are also ahead of last year with 3.42 million tonnes moved, up from 3.2 million last year.
Barley and oats exports are also up from last year but pea and lentil exports are down.
Barley exports to date, at 330,300 tonnes, are particularly strong.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 46 cents at US$52.64 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US77.80 cents, up from 78.06 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2853.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 17 507.80s +2.10 +0.42%
Canola Jan 18 516.30s +2.20 +0.43%
Canola Mar 18 522.50s +2.20 +0.42%
Canola May 18 524.90s +2.00 +0.38%
Canola Jul 18 526.00s +1.80 +0.34%
Milling Wheat Dec 17 238.00s +1.00 +0.42%
Milling Wheat Mar 18 243.00s +1.00 +0.41%
Milling Wheat May 18 248.00s +1.00 +0.40%
Durum Wheat Dec 17 278.00s unch unch
Durum Wheat Mar 18 283.00s unch unch
Durum Wheat May 18 285.00s unch unch
Barley Dec 17 148.00s unch unch
Barley Mar 18 151.00s unch unch
Barley May 18 151.00s unch unch
Soybeans Nov 17 971-2s -4-2 -0.44%
Soybeans Jan 18 982-4s -3-6 -0.38%
Soybeans Mar 18 993-0s -3-6 -0.38%
Soybeans May 18 1002-2s -4-0 -0.40%
Soybeans Jul 18 1010-0s -4-2 -0.42%
Soybean Meal Dec 17 312.1s -3.3 -1.05%
Soybean Meal Jan 18 314.2s -3.3 -1.04%
Soybean Meal Mar 18 317.2s -3.2 -1.00%
Soybean Oil Dec 17 34.50s +0.24 +0.70%
Soybean Oil Jan 18 34.66s +0.23 +0.67%
Soybean Oil Mar 18 34.88s +0.24 +0.69%
Corn Dec 17 350-4s -0-4 -0.14%
Corn Mar 18 364-4s -0-6 -0.21%
Corn May 18 373-2s -0-4 -0.13%
Corn Jul 18 380-4s -0-4 -0.13%
Corn Sep 18 387-2s -0-2 -0.06%
Oats Dec 17 262-4s -13-6 -4.98%
Oats Mar 18 265-4s -11-0 -3.98%
Oats May 18 268-4s -10-2 -3.68%
Oats Jul 18 266-4s -10-2 -3.70%
Oats Sep 18 266-4s -10-2 -3.70%
Wheat Dec 17 431-6s -3-6 -0.86%
Wheat Mar 18 450-2s -3-4 -0.77%
Wheat May 18 464-2s -3-4 -0.75%
Wheat Jul 18 478-4s -2-6 -0.57%
Wheat Sep 18 494-4s -2-2 -0.45%
Spring Wheat Dec 17 620-4s -1-0 -0.16%
Spring Wheat Mar 18 632-4s -0-6 -0.12%
Spring Wheat May 18 639-2s -0-6 -0.12%
Spring Wheat Jul 18 642-6s unch unch
Spring Wheat Sep 18 637-2s -0-2 -0.04%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 17 428-2s -5-2 -1.21%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 446-0s -5-2 -1.16%
Hard Red Wheat May 18 460-2s -5-2 -1.13%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 478-4s -4-6 -0.98%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 497-0s -4-4 -0.90%
Live Cattle Oct 17 114.150s +1.125 +1.00%
Live Cattle Dec 17 120.700s +1.625 +1.36%
Live Cattle Feb 18 126.100s +1.375 +1.10%
Feeder Cattle Oct 17 155.425s +0.575 +0.37%
Feeder Cattle Nov 17 157.175s +1.000 +0.64%
Feeder Cattle Jan 18 156.100s +0.500 +0.32%
Lean Hogs Dec 17 65.050s +0.575 +0.89%
Lean Hogs Feb 18 70.525s +0.925 +1.33%
Lean Hogs Apr 18 74.400s +0.725 +0.98%
