Threat of soy meal imports drives oilseed complex lower

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Published: November 12, 2014

By D’Arce McMillan, markets editor

Twiiter @ darcemcmillan

Soy meal again dominated the oilseed trade on Wednesday, dragging down canola and soybeans after rumours circulated that American meal users were planning to import soybean meal from Argentina.

Canola rose in overnight and morning trade, trying to catch up with the big gains seen in U.S. soybeans and soy meal on Tuesday, when markets were closed here for Remembrance Day.

Soy meal futures rose more than five percent Tuesday and soybeans climbed three percent on a shortage of soybeans in the cash market. Farmers are not delivering enough soybeans to meet the demand from soy crushers and exporters.

But once the talk circulated today that Argentine product could soon arrive, the price dropped and then the fall escalated as traders liquidated to lock in the profit from the previous day’s run up. Canola, soybeans, meal and oil all closed lower.

It was a good day for wheat futures today, with Chicago climbing more than three percent on concerns about what the cold snap would do to newly seeded winter wheat in the U.S. Midwest.

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Also, concerns about dry weather in Australia and Russia are also supporting wheat futures.

Corn edged higher on slow U.S. farmer selling, early support from soybeans and ideas that the delay in soybean seeding in Brazil will lead to a smaller corn crop, which is seeded into soybean stubble immediately after the soy harvest.

The trade is also keeping an eye on long range forecasts that see less rain than previously forecast in central Brazil in December and January.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 76 cents at US$77.18 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US88.62 cents, up from 88.14 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.1284.

Most major North American stock indexes were trading fractionally higher on Wednesday afternoon

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014       445.00       -7.60       -1.68%

Canola Jan 2015       429.60       -7.00       -1.60%

Canola Mar 2015       430.50       -4.80       -1.10%

Canola May 2015       430.90       -3.50       -0.81%

Canola Jul 2015       431.60       -2.70       -0.62%

 

Milling Wheat Dec 2014       227.00       +8.00       +3.65%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015       234.00       +8.00       +3.54%

Milling Wheat May 2015       237.00       +7.00       +3.04%

 

Durum Wheat Dec 2014       356.50       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015       357.50       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015       357.50       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Dec 2014       158.00       +3.00       +1.94%

Barley Mar 2015       161.00       +2.00       +1.26%

Barley May 2015       161.00       +2.00       +1.26%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 2014       1048.25       -18.25       -1.71%

Soybeans Jan 2015       1047.75       -16.25       -1.53%

Soybeans Mar 2015       1053.5       -14       -1.31%

Soybeans May 2015       1058.25       -12.75       -1.19%

Soybeans Jul 2015       1062.75       -12.75       -1.19%

Soybeans Aug 2015       1063.25       -12       -1.12%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 2014       395       -5.6       -1.40%

Soybean Meal Jan 2015       380.7       -3.4       -0.89%

Soybean Meal Mar 2015       365.8       -1       -0.27%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 2014       32.22       -0.65       -1.98%

Soybean Oil Jan 2015       32.37       -0.67       -2.03%

Soybean Oil Mar 2015       32.56       -0.7       -2.10%

 

Corn Dec 2014       377.75       +4       +1.07%

Corn Mar 2015       390.5       +4       +1.03%

Corn May 2015       399       +3.5       +0.88%

Corn Jul 2015       406.75       +4       +0.99%

Corn Sep 2015       413.5       +3.75       +0.92%

 

Oats Dec 2014       338       +2       +0.60%

Oats Mar 2015       338.25       +2.5       +0.74%

Oats May 2015       337.5       +3       +0.90%

Oats Jul 2015       332       +2.75       +0.84%

Oats Sep 2015       334.5       +2.5       +0.75%

 

Wheat Dec 2014       542.75       +17.5       +3.33%

Wheat Mar 2015       548       +17.25       +3.25%

Wheat May 2015       555.25       +17       +3.16%

Wheat Jul 2015       561.5       +16.75       +3.07%

Wheat Sep 2015       570.25       +16.25       +2.93%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2014       581.25       +14.5       +2.56%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       590.5       +12       +2.07%

Spring Wheat May 2015       598.5       +11       +1.87%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015       606.5       +10       +1.68%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015       614.5       +8.75       +1.44%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014       599.25       +20.75       +3.59%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015       599       +19       +3.28%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015       601       +17.75       +3.04%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015       598       +19.5       +3.37%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015       609.25       +19.25       +3.26%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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