Strong U.S. soy exports support canola, weather threatens wheat

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Published: February 25, 2014

Most crop futures rose Tuesday, including canola, which was supported by rising soybeans fueled by strong U.S. exports.

Speculators were covering short positions in canola. The May contract is having trouble breaking through the 20-day moving average.

March canola gained $3.40 to $415.10 per tonne.

Most-active May canola rose $3.00 at $425 per tonne.

New crop December closed at $452.20,up $2.80

Nearby Chicago wheat closed lower by a few cents, weighed down by news that Egypt had cancelled an order for 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soft red winter wheat. The explanation was that U.S. wheat had become too expensive after its recent rally.

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However deferred months rose and all months of Kansas and Minneapolis spring wheat rose on worries about potential damage to the U.S. winter wheat crop from freezing temperatures this week and from dry soils.

Soybean futures were buoyed by USDA confirmation that private exporters had sold 568,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to an unknown destination. Traders said it was likely China.

The continued strong demand for U.S. soybeans means that the already tight ending stocks forecast might have to be further tightened.

Oil World has trimmed its forecast for South American soybean production by 4.4 percent to 151.8 million tonnes, from 158.8 million in January, Bloomberg reported today.

It now sees the Brazilian crop at 85 million tonnes, down from its previous forecast of 89.5 million tonnes. It pegs Argentina’s crop at 53 millions, down one million from the previous forecast.

It also trimmed its forecasts for secondary producers Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia.

Oil World said further trimming might be necessary if Brazil’s southern state of Rio Grande do Sul does not get rain in the next two weeks.

The oilseed analyst pegged the global soy crop at 280 million, down 7.8 million from last month, but still up from last year. It also noted the weather problems are hurting South American corn and sunflower production too.

Nearby oats hit a new record high above $5 on the shortages in the contract’s delivery area due to the problems shipping Canadian crops by rail. Oats rose the 20 cent limit. The contract now fetches a 50 cent premium over corn, which might be unprecedented.

Corn rose a little, supported by a stronger cash market that is lifting bids to pry supply from farmers.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

 

Canola Mar 2014       415.10       +3.40       +0.83%

Canola May 2014       425.00       +3.00       +0.71%

Canola Jul 2014       435.00       +3.10       +0.72%

Canola Nov 2014       452.20       +2.80       +0.62%

Canola Jan 2015       459.40       +2.50       +0.55%

 

Milling Wheat Mar 2014       195.00       +4.00       +2.09%

Milling Wheat May 2014       197.00       +2.00       +1.03%

Milling Wheat Jul 2014       198.00       +2.00       +1.02%

 

Durum Wheat Mar 2014       245.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2014       249.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2014       250.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Mar 2014       126.50       unch       0.00%

Barley May 2014       128.50       unch       0.00%

Barley Jul 2014       128.50       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2014       1399       +12.5       +0.90%

Soybeans May 2014       1387.25       +12.25       +0.89%

Soybeans Jul 2014       1370       +11.75       +0.87%

Soybeans Aug 2014       1320.5       +9.5       +0.72%

Soybeans Sep 2014       1230.75       +8.75       +0.72%

Soybeans Nov 2014       1167.5       +7.25       +0.62%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 2014       469.6       +3.7       +0.79%

Soybean Meal May 2014       453.7       +5       +1.11%

Soybean Meal Jul 2014       440.4       +5.5       +1.26%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 2014       40.58       -0.17       -0.42%

Soybean Oil May 2014       40.85       -0.18       -0.44%

Soybean Oil Jul 2014       41.09       -0.16       -0.39%

 

Corn Mar 2014       455.75       +4.25       +0.94%

Corn May 2014       461.25       +3.5       +0.76%

Corn Jul 2014       465.25       +3       +0.65%

Corn Sep 2014       465       +3       +0.65%

Corn Dec 2014       467.75       +2.75       +0.59%

 

Oats Mar 2014       503       +20       +4.14%

Oats May 2014       468.25       +20       +4.46%

Oats Jul 2014       414       +15.5       +3.89%

Oats Sep 2014       348.25       +6.5       +1.90%

Oats Dec 2014       337.25       +10       +3.06%

 

Wheat Mar 2014       615       -2.75       -0.45%

Wheat May 2014       618       +1       +0.16%

Wheat Jul 2014       623.75       +2.75       +0.44%

Wheat Sep 2014       632.25       +3       +0.48%

Wheat Dec 2014       645       +3       +0.47%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2014       674       +11.25       +1.70%

Spring Wheat May 2014       662       +5.25       +0.80%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014       665.75       +5       +0.76%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014       673.5       +4.75       +0.71%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014       685.5       +6       +0.88%

 

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014       690.5       +1.5       +0.22%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014       691       +7       +1.02%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014       686       +9.25       +1.37%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014       692       +9.25       +1.35%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014       702.25       +9       +1.30%

 

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 99 cents at $101.83 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.22 cents US, down from 90.43 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1084 Cdn.

In late session trading U.S. stock indexes and the TSX composite were down about 0.20-0.27 percent. The report will be updated when stock market close.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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