Oilseeds rose Thursday, supported by strong old crop U.S. soybean weekly sales.
July canola closed at $611.40 per tonne, up $10.40.
November closed at $563.10, up $4.70.
Slow farmer selling and exporter buying for July is supporting canola but the upside for new crop is limited by expectations of record production this year.
However, Canada’s competition in the coming year might not be as strong as earlier forecast.
In the May 17 Western Producer on page seven is a story on Rabobank’s analysis of the canola market. It believes smaller crops in Europe and China will spur demand for canola. Weather problems in the former Soviet Union are cutting its rapeseed crop and production in Australia is uncertain.
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• On May 15 China’s National Grain and Oils Information Centre pegged rapeseed production there at 12.8 million tonnes, down 1.5 percent from last year.
Soybean production is seen at 13 million tonnes down about seven percent from last year.
• A dry start to the crop year caused the Australian Oilseeds Federation yesterday to forecast canola production at 2.965 million tonnes, down from last year’s 3.185 million despite an increase in seeded area.
• Wheat rose again today on concerns about dry weather in the U.S. hard red winter wheat belt where the crop is three weeks early and in a critical point in establishing yield.
An industry tour of Kansas two weeks ago pegged the Kansas crop at about 11 million tonnes, but now estimates are falling to the 8.8 to 9.5 million tonnes range.
It is also dry weather in southern Russia, the area closest to the Black Sea and the usual source of the majority of Russian exports. There are dry areas in Australia as well.
Also, analyst Strategie Grains today slashed its European Union soft wheat forecast due to a reassessment of winter damage.
It cut the crop by 4.2 million tonnes to 122.7 million tonnes, down about five percent from last year.
Strategie Grains also shaved its forecast for durum production to 7.6 million tonnes from 7.8 million. That is down from last year’s 8.2 million.
It raised its forecast for the EU barley crop by 400,000 tonnes to 52.7 million tonnes, up two percent on 2011. Producers are seeding spring barley to offset losses to winter barley.
Corn production is seen at 65.6 million tonnes, up 200,000 tonnes from the April forecast but still down one percent from last year.
• Saskatchewan Agriculture said 22 percent of the province’s crop has been seeded, up from the five year average of 18 percent.
Manitoba and Alberta are about 50 percent complete.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Jul 12 $611.40, up $10.40 +1.73%
Canola Nov 12 $563.10, up $4.70 +0.84%
Canola Jan 13 $566.10, up $4.70 +0.84%
Canola Mar 13 $568.60, up $4.40 +0.78%
The previous day’s best basis in the par region was $9 above the July contract.
Western Barley Jul 12 $237.00, unchanged
Western Barley Oct 12 $210.00, unchanged
Milling Wheat Oct 12 $245.00, up $3.00 +1.24%
Milling Wheat Dec 12 $250.00, up $3.00 +1.21%
Milling Wheat Mar 13 $259.00, up $3.00 +1.17%
Durum Wheat Oct 12 $275.60, unchanged
Durum Wheat Dec 12 $280.10, unchanged
Durum Wheat Mar 13 $286.70, unchanged
Barley Oct 12 $184.00, down $1.00 -0.54%
Barley Dec 12 $189.00, down $1.00 -0.53%
Barley Mar 13 $192.00, down $1.00 -0.52%
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans Jul 12 $14.38, up 16.0 cents +1.13%
Soybeans Aug 12 $14.0525, up 10.0 +0.72%
Soybeans Nov 12 $13.065, up 4.25 +0.33%
Corn Jul 12 $6.25, up 5.0 +0.81%
Corn Sep 12 $5.385, up 1.5 +0.28%
Corn Dec 12 $5.2825, up 2.0 +0.38%
Oats Jul 12 $3.385, up 1.0 +0.30%
Oats Sep 12 $3.43, up 1.25 +0.37%
Oats Dec 12 $3.475, up 1.5 +0.43%
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Jul 12 $7.6725, up 7.25 cents +0.95%
Spring Wheat Sep 12 $7.645, up 9.0 +1.19%
Spring Wheat Dec 12 $7.685, up 7.5 +0.99%
Spring Wheat Mar 13 $7.735, up 6.25 +0.81%
The nearby light crude oil contract in New York rose 25 cents to close at $92.56.
The loonie continued to fall against the U.S. buck on anxiety about Greece’s political turmoil and the future of the eurozone.
The Bank of Canada noon rate was 98.39 cents US, down from 98.99 cents the previous trading day.
The U.S. dollar was $1.0164 Cdn.
The loonie is down about three cents this month as investors pile into the safety of U.S. treasury bonds.
In early tallies:
Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX composite index edged higher by 4.48 points, or 0.04 percent, at 11,330.56.
Investors worried over rising Spanish bond yields and anxieties about its banks and another round of weak U.S. economic data.
Based on the latest available data, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 157.65 points, or 1.25 percent, to end at 12,440.90.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 19.92 points, or 1.50 percent, at 1,304.88.
The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 60.35 points, or 2.10 percent, at 2,813.69.
