Today’s Statistics Canada crop forecasts had little effect on canola prices but Minneapolis spring wheat fell more than two percent even as winter wheat prices edged higher.
The overall wheat forecast of about 25.5 million tonnes was near the middle of the trade’s expectations but the mix was perhaps a surprise with durum smaller than expectations and spring wheat larger at 18.9 million tonnes.
The durum forecast of about 3.9 million tonnes was almost 50 percent smaller than last year and the smallest durum crop since 2010.
The durum average yield was the smallest since 2003.
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The trade might have interpreted the spring wheat number as a starting point, with future StatsCan reports increasing the forecast as there was some improvement in growing conditions in some areas in August.
Minneapolis spring wheat was also under pressure from higher-than-expected deliveries against the September contract on first notice day.
CANOLA
The canola forecast at 18.2 million tonnes was within the rain of expectations and slightly lower than the mid point of the range.
Statistics Canada also revised up its 2016 canola crop number by 1.2 million tonnes to 19.6 million.
Canola closed slightly higher on the day, supported strong soybean futures, which rose on bargain buying after four days of losses.
CORN
December corn jumped 3.55 percent higher on bargain buying and end of the month buying.
U.S. Midwest temperatures are mild and next week is expected to be cooler than normal, but frost risk in the Midwest is slight.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.27 at US$47.23 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US80.12 cents, up from 79.22 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2481.
Canada posted stronger than expected GDP growth in the second quarter.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 78.74 points, or 0.52 percent, at 15,211.87. For August, the index gained 0.4 percent.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 55.67 points, or 0.25 percent, to end at 21,948.1, the S&P 500 gained 14.06 points, or 0.57 percent, to 2,471.65 and the Nasdaq Composite added 60.35 points, or 0.95 percent, to 6,428.66.
For the month, the S&P edged up 0.05 percent while the Dow gained 0.28 percent and Nasdaq rose 1.27 percent.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 17 499.50s +1.40 +0.28%
Canola Jan 18 505.10s +1.30 +0.26%
Canola Mar 18 511.00s +1.50 +0.29%
Canola May 18 513.80s +1.40 +0.27%
Canola Jul 18 515.00s +1.20 +0.23%
Milling Wheat Oct 17 238.00s -5.00 -2.06%
Milling Wheat Dec 17 242.00s -4.00 -1.63%
Milling Wheat Mar 18 251.00s -4.00 -1.57%
Durum Wheat Oct 17 296.00s -2.00 -0.67%
Durum Wheat Dec 17 298.00s -1.00 -0.33%
Durum Wheat Mar 18 299.00s -5.00 -1.64%
Barley Oct 17 145.00s unch unch
Barley Dec 17 148.00s unch unch
Barley Mar 18 151.00s unch unch
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 17 936-2s +13-2 +1.44%
Soybeans Nov 17 945-2s +12-0 +1.29%
Soybeans Jan 18 954-6s +12-0 +1.27%
Soybeans Mar 18 964-2s +12-0 +1.26%
Soybeans May 18 972-6s +12-0 +1.25%
Soybean Meal Sep 17 294.3s +1.9 +0.65%
Soybean Meal Oct 17 296.5s +1.9 +0.64%
Soybean Meal Dec 17 299.5s +2.1 +0.71%
Soybean Oil Sep 17 34.71s +0.38 +1.11%
Soybean Oil Oct 17 34.81s +0.37 +1.07%
Soybean Oil Dec 17 35.06s +0.37 +1.07%
Corn Sep 17 342-2s +12-6 +3.87%
Corn Dec 17 357-6s +12-2 +3.55%
Corn Mar 18 370-4s +12-2 +3.42%
Corn May 18 377-6s +12-0 +3.28%
Corn Jul 18 384-0s +11-6 +3.16%
Oats Sep 17 223-4s -4-6 -2.08%
Oats Dec 17 237-0s -6-2 -2.57%
Oats Mar 18 244-2s -4-6 -1.91%
Oats May 18 241-6s -6-0 -2.42%
Oats Jul 18 236-4s -6-0 -2.47%
Wheat Sep 17 410-2s +6-6 +1.67%
Wheat Dec 17 434-4s +4-6 +1.11%
Wheat Mar 18 457-0s +4-2 +0.94%
Wheat May 18 470-4s +4-4 +0.97%
Wheat Jul 18 483-4s +5-0 +1.04%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 17 618-4s -14-6 -2.33%
Spring Wheat Dec 17 640-4s -15-2 -2.33%
Spring Wheat Mar 18 651-0s -13-4 -2.03%
Spring Wheat May 18 648-0s -12-0 -1.82%
Spring Wheat Jul 18 643-0s -10-2 -1.57%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 17 408-6s +8-4 +2.12%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 17 436-2s +7-0 +1.63%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 454-0s +6-4 +1.45%
Hard Red Wheat May 18 467-6s +6-0 +1.30%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 484-6s +5-2 +1.09%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Oct 17 105.400s -0.725 -0.68%
Live Cattle Dec 17 109.100s -0.250 -0.23%
Live Cattle Feb 18 112.350s +0.100 +0.09%
Feeder Cattle Sep 17 142.575s -1.175 -0.82%
Feeder Cattle Oct 17 143.300s -0.825 -0.57%
Feeder Cattle Nov 17 143.675s -0.875 -0.61%
Lean Hogs Oct 17 61.400s +0.050 +0.08%
Lean Hogs Dec 17 58.025s +0.825 +1.44%
Lean Hogs Feb 18 62.650s +0.900 +1.46%
