StatsCan today increases wheat forecast, trims canola

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Published: December 5, 2012

Canola was up more than one percent at noon on Wednesday after Statistics Canada slightly trimmed its estimate of Canada’s canola crop.

Canola is also supported by rising soybeans, buoyed by concerns about excessive rain and flooding in Argentina.

The Statistics Canada’s report today pegged the canola crop at 13.3 million tonnes, down from 13.4 million in its Oct. 4 report.

That is down almost nine percent from 2011.

This was the result of a 19.2 percent decrease in yield to 27.7 bushels per acre. However, farmers reported a record harvested area of 21.2 million acres, up 13.1 percent from 2011.

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The production figure was less than the average of analysts polled by Reuters before the report, but it was within the range of their forecasts.

At 12:10 p.m. CST January canola was trading at $598.30, up $8.50 or 1.44 percent.

All wheat production was set at 27.2 million tonnes, about two percent more than the last report and up 7.6 percent from 2011.

The news did not lower Minneapolis spring wheat futures. They are up slightly today, as are wheat and oats.

Statistics Canada said barley production was eight million tonnes. The average of the Reuters poll was 8.6 million tonnes and StatsCan’s Oct. 4 figure was 8.59 million.

StatsCan said the oat harvest was 2.7 million tonnes, down its previous estimate of 2.9 million tonnes, which was also the average trade guess.

The report is based on interview with 29.300 farmers conducted between Oct. 26 and Nov. 14.

 

November estimates of production of principal field crops

 

Spring wheat 18.845 million tonnes, up 4.6 percent from last year.

Durum 4.627 million tonnes, up 10.9 percent.

Winter wheat  3.733 million tonnes, up 20.5 percent.

Canola 13.310 million tonnes, down 8.9 percent.

Corn for grain 13.060 million tonnes up 15 percent.

Barley 8.012 million tonnes, up 1.5 percent.

Soybeans 4.930, up 14.7 percent.

Dry field peas 2.83 million tonnes, up 13.1 percent.

Oats 2.684 million tonnes, down 15 perent.

Lentils 1.473 million tonnes, down 3.3 percent.

Flax 489,000 tonnes, up 22.6 percent.

Fall rye 337,000 tonnes up 39.4 percent.

Total dry beans 274,000 tonnes, up 68.9 percent.

 

Special crops in tonnes

 

Manitoba

Sunflower seed    86,900 (2012)   19,800 (2011)

 

Saskatchewan

Canary seed    124,900 (2012)   128,600 (2011)

Chick peas    141,300 (2012)   75,200 (2011)

Mustard seed    82,700 (2012)   103,200 (2011)

 

Alberta

Chick peas    16,200 (2012)   10,400  (2011)

Mustard    35,900 (2012)   26,800 (2011)

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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