Winnipeg, Oct. 2 – Statistics Canada’s survey of crop production prospects came in much as expected and many analysts expect the numbers will increase in the November survey.
Canola futures Friday morning were barely changed.
On Friday morning, StatsCan released its updated grain and oilseed production estimates. The data was collected through surveys taken Sept. 3 to 13.
Canola production came in at 14.3 million tonnes, which compares to 13.3 million tonnes in the previous report. Canada grew 16.4 million in 2014. The estimate put out a couple of weeks ago by the Crop Condition Assessment Program (CCAP) based on satellite monitoring was 14.4 million.
Jonathon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing Solutions near Grunthal, Man., said the report was uneventful.
“Most numbers came in line with what the trade was expecting. Probably in the case of canola the number is pretty close to the recent number StatsCan has put out with their different methodology,” he said, referring to the September report that took into account satellite data and environmental factors along with the responses.
Another analyst agreed with the notion that canola production will likely increase in subsequent reports.
“The next report is going to be closer to 15 (million tonnes) than 14.5 I can guarantee you,” said Wayne Palmer of Agri-Trend Marketing in Winnipeg, Man.
Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada thinks the StatsCan survey, done in the first half of September, likely missed the period when yields started to increase as a result of the late summer rain.
“The last third or half of this harvest is probably where some of the bigger yields are,” he said.
Jubinville adds most of the other crop estimates were in line with what he expected, with the exception of barley.
StatsCan pegged barley production in today’s report at 7.6 million tonnes which compares to the 7.3 in the July report, which was released in August, and 7.1 million in the CCAP forecast.
“StatsCan boosted the harvest area by 138,000 acres which is a bit unusual,” he said, adding he thought barley would have lost acreage. Canada grew 7.1 million tonnes of barley last year.
All-wheat production also rose by a significant margin from July. StatsCan today pegged it at 26.1 million tonnes which compares to 24.6 million in the July report. Last year Canada grew 29.4 million of all-wheat.
Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg says he was a little surprised by the increase but doesn’t expect it to rise much further in subsequent reports.
“The cereals didn’t respond in the dry western regions as well as the canola did because the rains came too late for them,” he said.
For Jubinville’s part, he thinks all-wheat production figure could rise again.
“I won’t be surprised if the yield average gets bumped up more … we could see a 27 million (tonne) wheat crop,” he said.
| In million tonnes | Today StatsCan | Trade estimate | StatsCan July | 2014-15 |
| All wheat | 26.061 | 24.7-26.5 | 24.625 | 29.419 |
| Durum | 4.744 | 4.5-5.1 | 4.467 | 5.193 |
| Barley | 7.610 | 6.9-7.4 | 7.305 | 7.119 |
| Oats | 3.292 | 3.0-3.4 | 3.312 | 2.979 |
| Canola | 14.297 | 13.5-15.2 | 13.343 | 16.410 |
| Flax | 0.889 | 0.85-0.95 | 0.884 | 0.873 |
| Peas | 3.156 | 2.8-3.2 | 2.921 | 3.81 |
Source: Statistics Canada
