Canadian farmers expect to seed more lentils and peas and less canola, flax, oats and spring wheat this year.
They also expect to drop summerfallow acres down to just 2.16 million, down 15.6 percent from last year.
Statistics Canada released its March seeding intentions survey this morning. The survey included about 11,500 farmers and was conducted March 16-31.
Canola is trading higher on Thursday morning, but its gains are limited by a general pull back in commodities as crude oil pulls back.
| PreReport Estimate* |
StatsCan 2016 |
|
| Canola |
19.70-21.30 |
19.345 |
| All Wheat |
21.50-24.20 |
23.846 |
| Durum |
5.40-6.00 |
6.120 |
| Barley |
6.20-7.00 |
6.777 |
| Flaxseed |
1.50-1.80 |
1.115 |
| Oats |
2.80-3.20 |
2.972 |
| Peas |
4.00-5.00 |
4,280 |
| Lentils |
4.40-5.50 |
5,140 |
- Commodity New Service poll
WINNIPEG/OTTAWA, (Reuters) – Canadian farmers intend to plant less canola than expected, and will sow record-large areas with pulse crops, according to the government’s first farmer survey of crop sowings for 2016, released on Thursday.
Wheat seedings are also expected to decline, but not as much as traders and analysts expected on average.
Statistics Canada estimated that canola seedings would span 19.3 million acres, down four percent from last year and below the average trade estimate of 20.4 million acres in a Reuters poll.
“The market will view this as supportive” to canola prices, said Jerry Klassen, manager of GAP SA Grains and Produits. “The focus now turns to yields. We cannot afford a crop problem with the lower acreage.”
Canola prices are likely to be more sensitive than usual to weather during the growing season, Klassen added.
ICE Canada November canola futures, representing the next crop, rose 1 percent in morning trading.
All-wheat plantings were forecast at 23.8 million acres, down one percent, but topping the average trade expectation of 23.2 million acres. The decline in the category was due to a forecast six percent drop in spring wheat sowings, to 16 million acres, while durum plantings are expected to rise five percent to 6.1 million acres.
Back-to-back droughts in India, the world’s largest importer of edible oils and pulses, has boosted prices and made pulses attractive to Canadian farmers, taking up acres that might otherwise have grown spring wheat and canola.
Pulses are an important protein source in the Indian diet.
Farmers intend to plant 5.1 million acres of lentils and 4.3 million acres of peas, which would set new records.
Big pulse crops should boost revenues for processors such as AGT Food and Ingredients Inc, said National Bank Financial analyst Greg Colman, in a note on Tuesday.
Canada is the world’s second-largest wheat exporter and the biggest shipper of canola, a cousin of rapeseed used largely to produce vegetable oil.
Most planting in Western Canada, the country’s wheat and canola belt, happens in May.
Statscan surveyed farmers from March 16 to 31.
The following is the text from the StatsCan report.
Wheat
Nationally, farmers reported that they intend to plant 23.8 million acres of wheat in 2016, down 1.1% from last year. Planting intentions for spring wheat are 16.0 million acres, 1.0 million acres lower than in 2015. Meanwhile, durum wheat is expected to grow 5.2% to 6.1 million acres. Winter wheat remaining for harvest is expected to increase 31.6% to 1.7 million acres in 2016.
Each of the Prairie provinces expected lower seeding areas for wheat compared with 2015, while farmers in the East anticipate seeding more wheat.
In Saskatchewan, total area seeded for wheat is anticipated to decline 3.5% to 12.6 million acres. Seeding intentions for spring wheat are down 9.6% to 7.1 million acres in 2016. However, acreage dedicated to durum wheat is expected to rise 5.5% to 5.3 million acres, its highest level since 2000.
Farmers in Alberta reported that the total area intended for wheat should edge down 0.6% to 6.8 million acres. Spring wheat area is expected to decline 1.8% this year to 5.8 million acres. It is anticipated that durum wheat acreage will increase 3.0% to 845,000 acres.
Manitoba farmers anticipate seeding 2.8 million acres of spring wheat in 2016, down 3.4% from 2015.
Canola
Canadian farmers reported that they intend to sow 19.3 million acres of canola in 2016, down 3.7% from last year.
Saskatchewan producers reported that they intend to seed 10.4 million acres, 2.6% lower compared with 2015. Farmers in Alberta also anticipate decreasing their canola planted area by 7.8% in 2016 to 5.6 million acres. Manitoba farmers reported no change in the size of the canola area (3.1 million acres) they intend to seed in 2016.
Soybeans
Farmers intend to plant 5.3 million acres of soybeans in 2016, down 1.9% from 2015.
Ontario remains the province with the largest soybean planted area, as producers are expecting to seed 2.7 million acres, accounting for around half of the national soybean area anticipated in 2016. However, the province’s intentions are down 7.8% from last year.
Producers in Manitoba, the province with second largest soybean area, intend to sow 1.5 million acres of soybeans in 2016, an increase of 10.1% compared with 2015. Quebec producers expect to plant 783,300 acres of soybeans, up 0.6% from the previous year.
Saskatchewan producers are anticipating a 9.3% decline in seeded area to 245,000 acres.
Barley and oats
Barley seeded area is expected to rise 3.8% from 2015 to 6.8 million acres, with the Prairies accounting for 95% of planting intentions.
Oat planting intentions for 2016 are 3.0 million acres, down 10.9% from 2015. Alberta is the only province to report an anticipated increase in oat area, with farmers expecting to seed 730,000 acres, 9.0% more than in 2015.
Corn for grain
National corn for grain seeding area is expected to rise 6.2% in 2016 to 3.5 million acres. Ontario farmers anticipate planting 2.2 million acres, up 4.6% from 2015. In Quebec, corn for grain area is expected to increase 4.1% to 939,000 acres.
