Statistcs Canada’s March 31 grain stocks report came in as expected for canola, but the all-wheat and durum numbers were smaller than the average of trade forecasts in a Reuters poll.
Total canola stocks were down 23.3 percent from the same day a year earlier to 6.6 million tonnes. That was almost spot on the pre report expectations from a Reuters poll. Canola stocks in commercial and farm storage fell 23 percent from last year at the same time.
At 9:50 AM CST July canola was trading at $529.50, up $6.70. New crop November was trading at $507.50, up $5.60.
Canola futures are supported by soyoil futures that were up 2.1 percent to their highest since March 23 in anticipation of the U.S. International Trade Commission’s finding that imports of biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia may harm U.S. producers. U.S. biodiesel producers in March asked the government to impose anti-dumping duties on imports from those countries.
Read Also
U.S. livestock: Cattle choppy amid weak cash market, tight supply
Chicago | Reuters – Chicago Mercantile Exchange cattle futures traded both sides of unchanged on Wednesday as mixed-to-weaker cash markets…
With the March 31 canola stocks at 6.6 million, you could have combined exports and domestic use of 1.5 million tonnes a month in the remaining four months of the crop year and have a tight 600,000 tonnes left as the carry over.
Agriculture Canada currently forcasts 1.1 million tonnes of carrover. If that is correct then you could have combined exports and domestic use of 1.375 million tonnes per month for the four remaining months.
In March, the combined exports and domestic use, roughly calculated, was 1.76 million.
WHEAT STOCKS
StatsCan pegged the all-wheat number at 16.6 million tonnes, lower than the midpoint of trade expectations at 18.3 million tonnes.
The all-wheat number is up 15.5 percent over last year at the same time.
StatsCan was also lower on durum, pegging it at 4.078 million compared to the trade expectation of 5.2 million tonnes.
The StatsCan number was up 51 percent over last year at the same time.
There was more barley in stock than what the trade expected. StatsCan pegged barley at 4.578 million tonnes, up 7. percent on the year. The trade expected 4.4 million, on average.
Oats stocks are 1.663 million tonnes, a little above the trade expectations at 1.6 million tonnes of oats.
The oats number was down 8.5 percent from last year.
The Reuters poll did not survey other crops.
The March Farm Survey of 11,600 Canadian farms is a survey of stocks of principal field crops conducted from March 16 to 31, 2017. Farmers were asked to report the amounts of grain, oilseeds and special crops in on-farm storage.
Data on commercial stocks of western major crops originate from the Canadian Grain Commission. Data on commercial stocks of special crops originate from a survey of handlers and agents of special crops. Data on commercial stocks of corn and soybeans are based on data from Statistics Canada’s survey of grain elevators in Eastern Canada.
