Spring wheat soars 3.2% on hot weather forecast, canola also rises

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Published: June 28, 2017

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Weather reports that predict hot weather for the northern plains next week drove spring wheat futures to fresh multi year highs on Wednesday.

Most traded September Minneapolis wheat soared 3.2 percent.

Canola also rose even as the Canadian dollar jumped higher.
WATCH THIS WEEK’S VIDEO CROP MARKET UPDATE FOR MORE ON THE WEATHER AND ITS MARKET IMPLICATIONS

Traders were also adjusting positions ahead of Statistics Canada’s seeded acreage report on Thursday and USDA ‘s planting report on Friday.

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The U.S. spring wheat crop is in the worst condition since 1988. There are anecdotal reports of farmers in the Dakotas cutting their spring wheat for hay for livestock feed.

It is expected to get hot – into the mid 30s C by July 4 in the U.S. Plains.

Temperatures in the southern Prairies are also expected to climb in the first week of July, into the high 20s and low 30s C.

That helped support canola, with November up $4 to $482.10 Wednesday.

The rally had to contend with the headwind from the strongest rally in the loonie since March.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz in a speech said that low interest rates have done their job and it is time to consider change.

That had the market talking about an interest rate hike when the bank meets in July.

CBOT soybeans firmed while corn eased after beneficial showers moved across top producer Iowa overnight. However, forecasts called for warmer and drier conditions in the Midwest after the Fourth of July holiday.

STATSCAN PREVIEW

The average of a Reuters poll of the trade sees canola area at 22.2 million acres, slightly less than the 22.39 forecast this spring but up from last year’s 20.37 million.

The midpoint of the range of forecasts for all wheat it 22.7 million acres, down from 23.18 million in the spring. Last year it was 23.21 million.

It sees durum at 5.0 million acres, down from 5.15 million in the spring. Last year’s area was 6.19 million.

It sees barley area slightly higher than in the spring.

Peas at 4.0 million acres and lentil at 4.4 million are similar to the spring forecast but down from last year.

USDA FORECAST

A Reuters poll shows the mid point of the trade’s expectation for USDA acreage on Friday for corn is 89.90 million acres, down from the March forecast of 89.99 million

It sees soybeans at 89.75 million up from he March forecast of 89.48 million.

All wheat is seen at 46.07 million acres compared to 46.06 in March.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 50 cents US$44.74 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US76.74 cents, up from 75.94 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3031.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 74.36 points, or 0.49 percent, at 15,355.58.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 143.95 points, or 0.68 percent, to 21,454.61, the S&P 500 gained 21.31 points, or 0.88 percent, to 2,440.69 and the Nasdaq Composite added 87.79 points, or 1.43 percent, to 6,234.41.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2017   519.50   +6.80   +1.33%

Canola Nov 2017   482.10   +4.00   +0.84%

Canola Jan 2018   488.00   +4.10   +0.85%

Canola Mar 2018   493.80   +4.30   +0.88%

Canola May 2018   497.50   unch   0.00%

 

Milling Wheat Jul 2017   294.00   +8.00   +2.80%

Milling Wheat Oct 2017   285.00   +7.00   +2.52%

Milling Wheat Dec 2017   288.00   +7.00   +2.49%

 

Durum Wheat Jul 2017   277.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2017   267.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2017   270.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley Jul 2017   138.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2017   140.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Dec 2017   140.00   unch   0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2017   914.00   +2.75   +0.30%

Soybeans Aug 2017   919.00   +3.00   +0.33%

Soybeans Sep 2017   920.75   +3.50   +0.38%

Soybeans Nov 2017   921.75   +4.25   +0.46%

Soybeans Jan 2018   929.50   +4.25   +0.46%

Soybeans Mar 2018   936.00   +4.00   +0.43%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2017   294.60   +0.60   +0.20%

Soybean Meal Aug 2017   296.60   +0.80   +0.27%

Soybean Meal Sep 2017   298.10   +1.40   +0.47%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2017   32.12   +0.04   +0.12%

Soybean Oil Aug 2017   32.25   +0.05   +0.16%

Soybean Oil Sep 2017   32.36   +0.03   +0.09%

 

Corn Jul 2017   356.75   -2.50   -0.70%

Corn Sep 2017   366.25   -1.50   -0.41%

Corn Dec 2017   376.25   -1.25   -0.33%

Corn Mar 2018   386.00   -1.50   -0.39%

Corn May 2018   392.25   -1.00   -0.25%

 

Oats Jul 2017   266.50   +20.00   +8.11%

Oats Sep 2017   261.00   +12.00   +4.82%

Oats Dec 2017   258.75   +5.00   +1.97%

Oats Mar 2018   260.75   +4.25   +1.66%

Oats May 2018   260.25   +4.00   +1.56%

 

Wheat Jul 2017   457.25   +4.00   +0.88%

Wheat Sep 2017   473.00   +4.00   +0.85%

Wheat Dec 2017   495.25   +4.00   +0.81%

Wheat Mar 2018   510.00   +3.25   +0.64%

Wheat May 2018   520.75   +3.00   +0.58%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2017   704.75   +23.25   +3.41%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017   708.00   +22.00   +3.21%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017   701.00   +20.25   +2.97%

Spring Wheat Mar 2018   694.25   +18.50   +2.74%

Spring Wheat May 2018   686.25   +17.00   +2.54%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017   461.50   +4.25   +0.93%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017   480.25   +4.50   +0.95%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017   505.75   +4.25   +0.85%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018   520.25   +4.75   +0.92%

Hard Red Wheat May 2018   529.00   +5.00   +0.95%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017   120.25   +0.65   +0.54%

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017   115.62   +0.59   +0.51%

Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017   113.65   +0.88   +0.78%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017   146.40   +1.53   +1.06%

Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017   146.40   +1.88   +1.30%

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2017   145.08   +2.11   +1.48%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017   87.92   +1.45   +1.68%

Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2017   79.48   +0.93   +1.18%

Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2017   68.18   +0.53   +0.78%

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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