Soybeans pull canola higher as Argentina suffers excess rain

Excess rain in Argentina that is flooding seeded fields pushed March soybean futures up more than two percent and canola tagged along, rising almost one percent.

The rise in soybeans was spurred more by soy meal, which climbed by more than four percent, than by soy oil, which fell 0.11 percent.

Crops prices on American futures exchanged also got support from a weaker U.S. dollar, which fell after President-elect Trump said in a Wall Street Journal story that the American dollar was too high and was killing the ability of U.S. companies to compete and create jobs.

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Of course one of the reasons the U.S. dollar is so high is that the unemployment rate is only 4.5 percent whereas in Canada it is 6.9 percent and in the EU it is close to 10 percent.

The loonie gained more than a half-cent against the U.S. greenback.

March soybeans rose as high as US$10.75 ½ per bushel, breaking above resistance at $10.75 the seasonal high set in late November. But it could not hold and settled at $10.69 ¼.

The rally in soybeans triggered farmer selling that limited the gain.

WHEAT

Chicago and Kansas City wheat both posted grains but Minneapolis spring wheat fell with the March contract down particularly strongly, falling 2.8 percent.

The previous rally in Minneapolis had it posting a strong premium over the other two contracts and this could be an adjustment to the spread.

Rain over the weekend in the U.S. southern Plains and Mississippi Delta, reduced concerns about dry soil in the region.

It is cold in Europe but reports say most winter wheat is protected under a blanket of snow.

While excess rain remains a problem in parts of Argentina, Brazil is expecting a record crop and also Paraguay and Uruguay, the smaller countries between the two South American giants, are also hoping for record production.

CANOLA ACREAGE

The head of German oilseed analyst Oil World, Thomas Mielke, is at AgDays in Brandon. He said he expects Canadian canola acres will increase by less than 10 percent this spring. At 10 percent that would mean an increase in the neighbourhood of two million acres to about 22 million, which was the record set in 2012.

Mielke a major support for oilseeds in the first half of the 2016-17 crop year was strong palm oil. Last year’s El Nino caused dry weather in Indonesia and Malaysia that shrunk production.

But the weather has returned to average and production is recovering. Palm prices are expected to fall back.

Mielke told Reuters the effect could start to weigh on canola prices in May or June.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 11 cents to US$52.47 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.57 cents, up from 75.97 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3060.

Stock markets edged lower as traders felt some of the Tump election rally is over done.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 37.93 points, or 0.25 percent, at 15,441.36.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 58.96 points, or 0.3 percent, to 19,826.77, the S&P 500 lost 6.8 points, or 0.30 percent, to 2,267.84 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 35.39 points, or 0.63 percent, to 5,538.73.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2017 509.00 +4.90 +0.97%

Canola May 2017 516.00 +5.20 +1.02%

Canola Jul 2017 519.40 +5.10 +0.99%

Canola Nov 2017 500.90 +5.30 +1.07%

Canola Jan 2018 502.20 +4.80 +0.97%

Milling Wheat Mar 2017 234.00 -8.00 -3.31%

Milling Wheat May 2017 241.00 -4.00 -1.63%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017 237.00 -7.00 -2.87%

Durum Wheat Mar 2017 315.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2017 318.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017 323.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2017 139.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2017 141.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2017 142.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2017 1069.25 +25.00 +2.39%

Soybeans May 2017 1078.00 +24.75 +2.35%

Soybeans Jul 2017 1083.25 +24.00 +2.27%

Soybeans Aug 2017 1075.75 +18.50 +1.75%

Soybeans Sep 2017 1048.75 +14.00 +1.35%

Soybeans Nov 2017 1020.00 +3.75 +0.37%

Soybean Meal Mar 2017 348.80 +15.40 +4.62%

Soybean Meal May 2017 350.20 +14.50 +4.32%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017 350.10 +13.10 +3.89%

Soybean Oil Mar 2017 35.56 unch 0.00%

Soybean Oil May 2017 35.80 -0.02 -0.06%

Soybean Oil Jul 2017 36.02 -0.03 -0.08%

Corn Mar 2017 365.50 +6.75 +1.88%

Corn May 2017 372.75 +6.75 +1.84%

Corn Jul 2017 380.00 +7.25 +1.95%

Corn Sep 2017 386.25 +6.50 +1.71%

Corn Dec 2017 392.50 +5.75 +1.49%

Oats Mar 2017 249.25 +6.25 +2.57%

Oats May 2017 239.00 +2.00 +0.84%

Oats Jul 2017 239.25 +0.25 +0.10%

Oats Sep 2017 238.00 -1.25 -0.52%

Oats Dec 2017 236.25 -1.75 -0.74%

Wheat Mar 2017 433.50 +7.00 +1.64%

Wheat May 2017 448.25 +8.25 +1.88%

Wheat Jul 2017 463.25 +8.50 +1.87%

Wheat Sep 2017 478.75 +9.50 +2.02%

Wheat Dec 2017 496.00 +10.00 +2.06%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 566.50 -15.75 -2.71%

Spring Wheat May 2017 558.75 -7.00 -1.24%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 556.25 -2.75 -0.49%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 558.00 -1.75 -0.31%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017 565.50 -0.75 -0.13%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 452.00 +3.00 +0.67%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017 463.75 +2.75 +0.60%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 475.25 +2.50 +0.53%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 489.00 +3.25 +0.67%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 508.25 +4.75 +0.94%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 119.58 +1.10 +0.93%

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 119.00 +1.20 +1.02%

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 108.52 +0.57 +0.53%

Feeder Cattle (P) Jan 2017 130.92 +0.62 +0.48%

Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017 130.05 +0.83 +0.64%

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 129.50 +0.68 +0.53%

Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 65.80 +0.32 +0.49%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 69.72 +0.40 +0.58%

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 74.78 +0.23 +0.31%

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