Soy rebounds; weather supports canola

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Published: September 20, 2018

Winnipeg – The ICE Futures canola platform ended slightly higher on Thursday, following gains in the U.S. soy complex.

Weather issues continue to lend support to futures, as farmers in parts of Western Canada waited for drier conditions to finish the harvest.

The November contract continues to receive technical support at the C$485 per tonne mark.

Spec buying was a feature of the morning’s activity as the trade largely shrugged off yesterday’s report from Statistics Canada, which raised production estimates.

However, recent strength in the Canadian dollar was bearish for values.

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The technical bias appears pointed lower.

About 20,042 canola contracts traded, which compares with Wednesday when 15,324 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 12,726 of the contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade continued to correct higher Thursday, in the wake of heavy losses over the past few weeks that have driven the market to 10-year lows.

A lack of trade progress between China and the United States continues to overhang the market.

Argentina is considering hiking its export tax on soybeans from 28 percent to 33 percent. The proposal was laid out in the government’s recent budget.

The corn market rose Thursday as forecasts called for rain in the upper Midwest, which is expected to halt the harvest.

Demand for U.S. livestock feed remains reasonably solid while ethanol sales are steady.

Hurricane Florence has devastated the corn crop in the Carolinas. Fortunately, it only makes up a small portion of the U.S. supply.

Wheat futures in Chicago, Minneapolis and Kansas City ended relatively unchanged in choppy trading.

Northern Africa has increased its purchases of wheat in recent weeks, but Russia seems to be the country that is benefiting the most due to recent weakness in the ruble.

According to the USDA, the U.S. exported 468,000 tonnes of wheat last week, which was on the lower end of expectations.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down 32 cents at US$70.80 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US77.49 cents, up from 77.24 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2905.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

 

Canola Nov 18 489.10s +2.10 +0.43%

Canola Jan 19 494.70s +2.00 +0.41%

Canola Mar 19 500.00s +2.40 +0.48%

Canola May 19 504.70s +2.20 +0.44%

Canola Jul 19 508.60s +1.90 +0.37%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 18 850-2s +20-2 +2.44%

Soybeans Jan 19 864-0s +20-2 +2.40%

Soybeans Mar 19 877-0s +19-6 +2.30%

Soybeans May 19 889-6s +19-4 +2.24%

Soybeans Jul 19 899-6s +19-4 +2.22%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 18 311.4s +5.0 +1.63%

Soybean Meal Dec 18 314.4s +5.2 +1.68%

Soybean Meal Jan 19 315.3s +5.3 +1.71%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 18 27.60s +0.35 +1.28%

Soybean Oil Dec 18 27.86s +0.36 +1.31%

Soybean Oil Jan 19 28.11s +0.38 +1.37%

 

Corn Dec 18 352-4s +6-6 +1.95%

Corn Mar 19 364-6s +6-6 +1.89%

Corn May 19 372-6s +6-2 +1.71%

Corn Jul 19 379-0s +6-0 +1.61%

Corn Sep 19 384-0s +5-4 +1.45%

 

Oats Dec 18 249-0s -0-2 -0.10%

Oats Mar 19 253-6s unch unch

Oats May 19 258-0s +1-2 +0.49%

Oats Jul 19 261-4s +2-0 +0.77%

Oats Sep 19 264-6s +1-6 +0.67%

 

Wheat Dec 18 524-0s +1-4 +0.29%

Wheat Mar 19 542-4s +2-2 +0.42%

Wheat May 19 553-6s +2-0 +0.36%

Wheat Jul 19 556-2s +1-2 +0.23%

Wheat Sep 19 565-6s +1-0 +0.18%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 18 588-4s +0-4 +0.09%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 602-4s +1-2 +0.21%

Spring Wheat May 19 609-2s +0-6 +0.12%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 615-0s +0-4 +0.08%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 618-4s -0-2 -0.04%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 527-0s +0-6 +0.14%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 550-6s +1-0 +0.18%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 563-2s +0-2 +0.04%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 562-0s -0-4 -0.09%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 572-4s unch unch

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 18 112.450s -0.650 -0.57%

Live Cattle Dec 18 117.900s -0.075 -0.06%

Live Cattle Feb 19 121.600s -0.250 -0.21%

 

Feeder Cattle Sep 18 155.675s +0.150 +0.10%

Feeder Cattle Oct 18 157.275s -0.600 -0.38%

Feeder Cattle Nov 18 157.150s -0.575 -0.36%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 18 61.250s +1.250 +2.08%

Lean Hogs Dec 18 58.275s +0.375 +0.65%

Lean Hogs Feb 19 65.625s -0.325 -0.49%

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