All the market seemed to care about Wednesday was soybeans and Apple.
And that caused Winnipeg canola futures to have a good day because canola traders care a lot about soybeans and little about the new IPhone 5.
Soybean futures prices in Chicago soared after the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s September reports verified beliefs that soybean supplies in the U.S. and elsewhere are low, lending support to notions that canola will find a lot of demand for both its oil and meal throughout the winter.
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Saskatchewan farmers made good harvest progress during the first week of October, only seven per cent of crops still in the field as of Oct. 6, according to the latest provincial report. Dry conditions over the past few weeks allowed harvest to catch up to seasonal averages.
The USDA reports didn’t find anything truly surprising to most market participants, but did not kill the bullish argument and allowed bullish traders to once more roll into long soybean positions.
Corn suffered slightly, however, because the USDA projected higher ending stocks than previously expected.
Soybeans generally rose 45 cents per bushel from November to March, and canola contracts rose almost 30 cents per bushel, reflecting the weaker gains in soybean oil than in soybean meal. Shortness of soybean meal continues to underlie the market.
Canola was also strengthened by continued reports of disappointing canola yields across Western Canada. Crops that look good in the stand and swath aren’t looking so good in the bin.
Generally, world markets had a good day. The grains were the hottest commodity class, but most stock markets chalked up gains, too.
There is great anticipation that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, will announce more quantitative easing this week, and many traders are ready to roll out the barrel on its commencement.
Bearish traders worry that if the Fed doesn’t announce another financial happy hour, the hangover from the last few years of debt indulgence will quickly overwhelm the market.
More U.S. stocks rose than fell, but computer company Apple fell after unveiling the new IPhone 5. A widespread mood of “so what?” greeted the announcement that the 5 will have a bigger screen and operate with faster networks. This was all expected and there were no door-buster surprises to cause consumers to jam the stores to get a new IPhone immediately.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Nov 12 $641.70, up $13.40
Canola Jan 13 $645.50, up $13.40
Canola Mar 13 $646.10, up $13.40
Canola May 13 $634.60, up $13.30
Milling Wheat Oct 12 $294.70, down $1.00 -0.34%
Milling Wheat Dec 12 $301.10, down $1.00 -0.33%
Milling Wheat Mar 13 $310.60, down $1.00 -0.32%
Durum Wheat Oct 12 $306.90, unchanged
Durum Wheat Dec 12 $311.40, unchanged
Durum Wheat Mar 13 $318.00, unchanged
Barley Oct 12 $250.00, down $7.00 -2.72%
Barley Dec 12 $255.00, down $7.00 -2.67%
Barley Mar 13 $258.00, down $7.00 -2.64%
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans (P) Sep 12 $17.4075, up 44.25 cents +2.61%
Soybeans (P) Nov 12 $17.4575, up 44.25
Soybeans (P) Jan 13 $17.4450, up 43.75 +2.57%
Soybeans (P) Mar 13 $16.9375, up 45.00 +2.73%
Corn (P) Sep 12 $7.7100, down 11.25 -1.44%
Corn (P) Dec 12 $7.6950, down 8.25 -1.06%
Corn (P) Mar 13 $7.7325, down 8.00 -1.02%
Oats (P) Sep 12 $3.8050, down 3.00 -0.78%
Oats (P) Dec 12 $3.8700, down 0.50 -0.13%
Oats (P) Mar 13 $3.8900, down 0.75 -0.19%
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Sep 12 $9.3950, up 13.00 cents +1.40%
Spring Wheat Dec 12 $9.5150, up 16.50 +1.76%
Spring Wheat Mar 13 $9.6000, up 16.00 +1.69%
Spring Wheat May 13 $9.6650, up 15.00 +1.58%
The previous day’s best canola basis was $20.16 under the November contract according to ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 16 cents at $97.01 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0249 US, down from $1.0284 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 97.57 cents Cdn.
