July soybeans soared more than four percent on Thursday as forecasts for another round of rain in Argentina threatened the tail end of the harvest there.
But new crop November soybeans rose only 1.24 percent and so July is now at a substantial inversion premium over November. This implies that the trade expects there will be immediate increased demand for American soybeans to fill in for reduced availability of Argentine product.
Watch Canada agricultural markets update
July soy meal soared 4.81 percent, helping to drive the soy complex higher.
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Alberta Crop Report: Rains in the south, dryness in the north
Rain fell onto the southern half of Alberta last week, while hot and dry conditions persisted in the northern half, according to the province’s crop report released on July 18.
July canola was up $3.20 a tonne to $520.60, a 0.62 percent increase, while November closed at 526.30, up $4.40 of 0.84 percent.
Near ideal weather in the Canadian Prairies is contributing to rapid crop growth that will limit canola future gains, but on the other hand, as canola’s rally lags behind soybeans it improves the crush margin, making it more profitable to crush canola.
The soybean rally did not spread to corn. Most of its contracts rose by less than a penny a bushel.
However wheat saw good gains with the nearby Chicago contract climbing by almost 2.5 percent.
The Minneapolis hard red spring contract climbed 0.66 percent.
Rains this week in Argentina’s top agricultural province, which was previously unaffected by recent wet weather, may further damage the soybean harvest, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday. Rain and flooding in April already caused major damage to Argentina’s soy crop.
Soybeans were also supported by ideas that China’s hog producers are building up herds to address pork shortages and soaring pork prices. Larger hog herds would increase the demand for feedstuffs such as soy meal.
Torrential rains in France in recent days might lead to wheat quality downgrades and crop disease.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 16 cents to US$49.17 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.45 cents, up from 76.39 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3080.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 73.45 points, or 0.52 percent, at 14,136.99.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 47.87 points, or 0.27 percent, to 17,837.54, the S&P 500 gained 5.83 points, or 0.28 percent, to 2,105.16 and the Nasdaq Composite added 19.11 points, or 0.39 percent, to 4,971.36.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2016 520.60 +3.20 +0.62%
Canola Nov 2016 526.30 +4.40 +0.84%
Canola Jan 2017 529.30 +3.70 +0.70%
Canola Mar 2017 530.60 +4.00 +0.76%
Canola May 2017 531.80 +3.60 +0.68%
Milling Wheat Jul 2016 240.00 +2.00 +0.84%
Milling Wheat Oct 2016 236.00 +2.00 +0.85%
Milling Wheat Dec 2016 241.00 +1.00 +0.42%
Durum Wheat Jul 2016 302.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2016 296.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2016 298.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2016 171.50 +0.50 +0.29%
Barley Oct 2016 171.50 +0.50 +0.29%
Barley Dec 2016 171.50 +0.50 +0.29%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2016 1144.25 +44.5 +4.05%
Soybeans Aug 2016 1130.75 +35.25 +3.22%
Soybeans Sep 2016 1102.5 +23.5 +2.18%
Soybeans Nov 2016 1081.75 +13.25 +1.24%
Soybeans Jan 2017 1077.75 +13.25 +1.24%
Soybeans Mar 2017 1046.75 +7 +0.67%
Soybean Meal Jul 2016 418.3 +19.2 +4.81%
Soybean Meal Aug 2016 399.4 +11.8 +3.04%
Soybean Meal Sep 2016 388.8 +7.7 +2.02%
Soybean Oil Jul 2016 32.26 +0.07 +0.22%
Soybean Oil Aug 2016 32.37 +0.07 +0.22%
Soybean Oil Sep 2016 32.48 +0.07 +0.22%
Corn Jul 2016 415.25 +1.5 +0.36%
Corn Sep 2016 415.75 +0.75 +0.18%
Corn Dec 2016 416.75 +0.5 +0.12%
Corn Mar 2017 422.75 -0.25 -0.06%
Corn May 2017 426.25 -0.75 -0.18%
Oats Jul 2016 190.75 +0.5 +0.26%
Oats Sep 2016 203.5 +0.5 +0.25%
Oats Dec 2016 215.25 +0.75 +0.35%
Oats Mar 2017 224.25 +0.75 +0.34%
Oats May 2017 224.25 +0.75 +0.34%
Wheat Jul 2016 485.5 +11.75 +2.48%
Wheat Sep 2016 496.25 +11.25 +2.32%
Wheat Dec 2016 514 +11 +2.19%
Wheat Mar 2017 531 +10.5 +2.02%
Wheat May 2017 542.25 +10.5 +1.97%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 532.25 +3.5 +0.66%
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 540.75 +4 +0.75%
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 553.75 +4 +0.73%
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 565.75 +3.25 +0.58%
Spring Wheat May 2017 573.75 +4.25 +0.75%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 464.5 +8.5 +1.86%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 480.75 +8.5 +1.80%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 504.75 +9.25 +1.87%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 521.25 +9.5 +1.86%
