Rising canola bucks trend

Canola prices managed to keep out of a generally negative downdraft in crop futures markets Tuesday, following soybean oil prices higher.

Fireworks in the liquidation of old crop Chicago futures in soybeans and oats, plummeting 50 cents for soybeans and 17 cents in oats, provided the day’s only real excitement, as most crops just dropped a cent or two.

Without big weather scares and with the bulk of North American crops still days and weeks away from harvest, there’s not much reason for crop prices to move other than a bit lower every day.

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“We’re just grinding lower here and there’s  not really much reason to do otherwise now,” said Jon Driedger of  FarmLink Marketing.

North America still seems set to produce big corn and soybean crops, with most other crops looking healthy, too. While some of the smaller acreage crops on the Prairies look tight for supply, not much has changed since last week’s Statistics Canada production report.

Cold and wet weather across most the Prairies hasn’t helped most crops and has held back many farmers from swathing and combining early crops. However, so far it has merely delayed harvest.

Only reports of significant quality damage or great delays are likely to wind up the markets. Especially with warm weather forecast for the latter half of the week, the markets aren’t too worried yet.

The close-to-zero degree temperatures on the Prairies in  the past couple of days are a warning about how quickly things can cool down at the end of summer and into fall, but they haven’t been severe enough to rattle most traders or commercial buyers.

“Nobody’s getting too excited yet,” said Driedger.

“It’ll be on the radar, but until we get some frosts that do damage, I don’t think people will get too excited.”

However, the poor recent weather might be one of the factors allowing canola to be a bit peppy this week as possible reductions to canola and stronger soybean oil prices give canola a reason  to stop the fall that has taken it to below $430 per tonne for both November and January.

In world stock markets, everyone stopped and noticed when the Standard and Poors 500 went over the 2,000 mark. Most exchanges rose on the day and economic news was mostly good.

Tim Hortons, a Canadian favorite but mostly unknown in the United States, received an incredible amount of attention as Burger King’s owners announced the two companies had agreed to merge, with BK getting control of Timmies.

Much of the attention arose from the possibility of the merged company being incorporated in Canada to avoid higher U.S. corporate taxes.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014    423.40    +3.10    +0.74%
Canola Jan 2015    428.90    +3.10    +0.73%
Canola Mar 2015    433.70    +2.90    +0.67%
Canola May 2015    435.20    +3.30    +0.76%
Canola Jul 2015    434.80    +3.30    +0.76%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014    205.00    +1.00    +0.49%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014    208.00    -1.00    -0.48%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015    217.00    unch    0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014    250.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014    256.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015    257.00    unch    0.00%

Barley Oct 2014    135.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Dec 2014    137.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Mar 2015    138.00    unch    0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2014    1075.5    -50.25    -4.46%
Soybeans Nov 2014    1028    -1.25    -0.12%
Soybeans Jan 2015    1035.5    -0.5    -0.05%

Soybeans Mar 2015    1042.25    -0.25    -0.02%
Soybeans May 2015    1048    +0.25    +0.02%
Soybeans Jul 2015    1052.75    +1.25    +0.12%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014    388.7    -17.4    -4.28%
Soybean Meal Oct 2014    352    -2.4    -0.68%
Soybean Meal Dec 2014    343.5    -0.2    -0.06%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014    33.03    +0.29    +0.89%
Soybean Oil Oct 2014    33.05    +0.28    +0.85%
Soybean Oil Dec 2014    33.17    +0.21    +0.64%

Corn Sep 2014    356    -4    -1.11%
Corn Dec 2014    365    -2.5    -0.68%
Corn Mar 2015    378.5    -2    -0.53%
Corn May 2015    386.75    -1.75    -0.45%
Corn Jul 2015    393.5    -2    -0.51%

Oats Sep 2014    359.75    -17.25    -4.58%
Oats Dec 2014    344.75    -6.75    -1.92%
Oats Mar 2015    332    -6.75    -1.99%
Oats May 2015    323.75    -6.5    -1.97%
Oats Jul 2015    320.75    -7    -2.14%

Wheat Sep 2014    541.5    -1    -0.18%
Wheat Dec 2014    556.5    +2    +0.36%
Wheat Mar 2015    577    +2.75    +0.48%
Wheat May 2015    587.5    +3.25    +0.56%
Wheat Jul 2015    594.75    +2.5    +0.42%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2014    612.75    -4.25    -0.69%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014    625.75    -2.5    -0.40%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015    638.25    -1.25    -0.20%
Spring Wheat May 2015    648    unch    0.00%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015    655.5    +0.25    +0.04%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2014    621    -1.75    -0.28%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014    631.75    -1.5    -0.24%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015    641    -1    -0.16%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015    645.5    +0.75    +0.12%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015    634.75    -0.25    -0.04%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 51 cents at $93.86 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.32 cents US, up from 91.07 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0951 Cdn.