Quiet day for grain on Monday

After last week’s drama, grain markets had a relatively quiet day Monday.

“Things have stabilized and we rebounded a bit (on Friday),” said Ken Ball, a broker with P.I. Financial.

“It was surprisingly quiet today.”

Last week saw a sharp selloff in numerous markets, as some projections of possible rainfall for the U.S. Midwest later this month and U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates spooked some long side position holders.

“Speculative money that sometimes gets into these markets isn’t exactly money that’s always in the grain markets, and they don’t quite know what to do with the USDA numbers,” said Ball.

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Most crops other than spring wheat saw futures markets sell off Monday, but only by a few cents. Soybeans weakened following poor U.S. crush numbers.

Canola joined in the weakness, with most contracts falling just over a dollar per tonne, but that still left the crop comfortably above $500. Ball said he thinks canola will follow the soybean markets for its main trend, but should be able to also force a higher veg-oil premium compared to other oilseeds.

“On paper it still looks like we’ve got a huge challenge to manage last year’s level of demand,” said Ball.

“In order to reduce some of that demand, canola is going to have to discourage some buyers, and the only way it can do that is by getting (relatively) more expensive.”

Canola supplies are very tight right now, and market expectations for the crop in the field are high. However, meeting those expectations could be difficult because there is almost no carryover and demand continues to boom.

“We don’t have the buffer of a two-to-two-and-a-half million tonne carryover,” said Ball.

The canola crop in Canada is also continuing to face challenging heat and dryness in some areas, regardless of some weekend moisture in places. Ball said the market appears to be expecting a 20-20.5 million tonne crop, but anything above 19.5 million will be difficult to achieve.

However, canola will follow trends in the greater vegetable oils market unless a major production impact hits.

“It’s just a pure weather market,” said Ball.

Spring wheat continues to be the most entertaining market, with futures rising nine cents per bushel Monday on reports of crops being scorched by heat and some farmers cutting them for feed.

US CROP CONDITIONS

The USDA’s weekly crop condition report issued after the close pushed the amount of spring wheat rated good to excellent down to 34 percent from 35 percent the week before and 69 percent last year at this time. That matched expectations.

There was a four percentage point decline in North Dakota.

The soybean good to excellent rating slipped one percentage point to 61 percent.

Last year it was 71 percent.

The corn good to excellent rating fell to 64 from 65 percent the week before.

Last year it was 76 percent.

Corn and soybeans matched expectations.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 52 cents US$46.02 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US78.79 cents, down from 79.04 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2692.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 9.45 points, or 0.06 percent, at 15,165.36.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 8.02 points, or 0.04 percent, to 21,629.72, the S&P 500 lost 0.13 points, or 0.01 percent, to 2,459.14 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.97 points, or 0.03 percent, to 6,314.43.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2017   506.20   -1.10   -0.22%
Canola Jan 2018   510.20   -1.10   -0.22%
Canola Mar 2018   513.40   -1.20   -0.23%
Canola May 2018   512.80   -1.60   -0.31%
Canola Jul 2018   512.40   -1.90   -0.37%

Milling Wheat Oct 2017   289.00   -2.00   -0.69%
Milling Wheat Dec 2017   295.00   -6.00   -1.99%
Milling Wheat Mar 2018   301.00   -5.00   -1.63%

Durum Wheat Oct 2017   284.00   +2.00   +0.71%
Durum Wheat Dec 2017   286.00   +5.00   +1.78%
Durum Wheat Mar 2018   287.00   +4.00   +1.41%

Barley Oct 2017   140.00   unch   0.00%
Barley Dec 2017   140.00   unch   0.00%
Barley Mar 2018   140.00   unch   0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2017   985.00   -4.50   -0.45%
Soybeans Sep 2017   989.25   -4.25   -0.43%
Soybeans Nov 2017   997.50   -5.00   -0.50%
Soybeans Jan 2018   1006.25   -5.25   -0.52%

Soybeans Mar 2018 1009.75 -5.50 -0.54%
Soybeans May 2018 1014.75 -5.25 -0.51%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017   322.30   unch   0.00%
Soybean Meal Aug 2017   321.80   -1.30   -0.40%
Soybean Meal Sep 2017   323.80   -1.30   -0.40%

Soybean Oil Aug 2017   33.01   -0.42   -1.26%
Soybean Oil Sep 2017   33.14   -0.40   -1.19%
Soybean Oil Oct 2017   33.23   -0.38   -1.13%

Corn Sep 2017   375.00   -0.75   -0.20%
Corn Dec 2017   388.00   -0.75   -0.19%
Corn Mar 2018   398.75   -0.75   -0.19%
Corn May 2018   403.75   -0.75   -0.19%
Corn Jul 2018   408.75   -0.50   -0.12%

Oats Sep 2017   285.50   -3.50   -1.21%
Oats Dec 2017   288.50   -2.25   -0.77%
Oats Mar 2018   286.75   +2.75   +0.97%
Oats May 2018   285.75   -0.50   -0.17%
Oats Jul 2018   284.50   +48.50   +20.55%

Wheat Sep 2017   506.00   -6.75   -1.32%
Wheat Dec 2017   530.25   -6.50   -1.21%
Wheat Mar 2018   550.00   -6.00   -1.08%
Wheat May 2018   560.50   -6.00   -1.06%
Wheat Jul 2018   565.25   -5.75   -1.01%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2017   767.25   +5.50   +0.72%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017   770.00   +6.75   +0.88%
Spring Wheat Mar 2018   762.75   +3.25   +0.43%
Spring Wheat May 2018   750.00   +9.25   +1.25%
Spring Wheat Jul 2018   735.25   +3.75   +0.51%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017   506.50   -9.75   -1.89%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017   532.75   -10.00   -1.84%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018   549.00   -8.00   -1.44%
Hard Red Wheat May 2018   561.75   -9.25   -1.62%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2018   571.75   -7.75   -1.34%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017   116.95   -0.67   -0.57%
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017   118.62   +0.10   +0.08%
Live Cattle (P) Dec 2017   119.25   +0.07   +0.06%

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017   154.42   +0.02   +0.01%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017   154.38   +0.20   +0.13%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2017   153.15   +0.64   +0.42%

Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017   92.40   -0.25   -0.27%
Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2017   80.78   +0.95   +1.19%
Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2017   68.05   +0.87   +1.30%