Prices fall in run-up to USDA reports

Most crop futures fell slightly through Tuesday until near the close, when they slumped down with traders closing long positions out before the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports this week.

The September USDA reports can cause explosive reactions up or down, and in recent days many market players have backed away from the market, unsure about what might happen when the new numbers come out.

Canola fell about 15 cents per bushel to $628.30 for the Winnipeg November canola contract and $632.10 for the January.

Soybean contracts in Chicago fell about 17 cents per bushel.

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Tomorrow’s USDA reports follow an incredible rally, which has taken U.S. crop prices to historical records in corn and soybeans. Volatility is great and belief in both the bull and bear cases is strong amongst adherents.

Bullish traders, which are the majority, hope for another leg upward in the rally, and perhaps a big blow-off top that takes prices far higher.

Bears think the rally has already factored in most of the upside potential, so anything any time could cause the sort of three days of locked limit down prices that tend to follow explosive rallies like the one this summer.

World stock markets were generally positive Tuesday.

Most commodities were flat.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Nov 12 $628.30, down $6.40 -1.01%

Canola Jan 13 $632.10, down $6.60 -1.03%

Canola Mar 13 $632.70, down $6.90 -1.08%

Canola May 13 $621.30, down $7.40 -1.18%

Milling Wheat Oct 12 $295.70, down $0.80 -0.27%

Milling Wheat Dec 12 $302.10, up $0.10 +0.03%

Milling Wheat Mar 13 $311.60, up $0.10 +0.03%

Durum Wheat Oct 12 $306.90, unchanged

Durum Wheat Dec 12 $311.40, unchanged