Pakistan buys canola; analysts forecast US spring acres

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Published: March 25, 2014

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Easterm Europe and Ukraine are dry.

Talk that Pakistan had bought 90,000 tonnes of Canadian canola on Monday helped lift May canola $5.20 per tonne or 1.16 percent on Tuesday.

Canola did not get much help from soybeans, which edged up only 0.18 percent in the May contract on concerns about tight stocks. Soy oil slid a fraction. Palm oil was down on Monday on slower than expected Malaysian exports in the first 25 days of March.

Corn was also down on profit taking after recent gains and on China rejecting another cargo because of unapproved GM content.

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Second Harvest, billed as Canada’s largest food rescuer, was on hand at Ag in Motion in Langham, Saskatchewan, from July 15 to 17 to connect with farmers and raise awareness of their presence on the Prairies.

Chicago wheat also was down but Kansas and Minneapolis edged higher in the new crop December contract.

The declining quality of the U.S. winter wheat crop, especially in Texas and Oklahoma, supported wheat. Also forecasts for strong winds on Wednesday that could get the dust blowing on the southern Plains again supported wheat.

It is also dry in eastern Europe and in Ukraine.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture issues its planting intentions report on Monday March 31.

A Reuters poll of analysts shows U.S. farmers plan to seed a record 81.075 million acres of soybeans based on the average of the forecasts.

The average of the forecasts for corn plantings was 92.748 million acres, down from 95.365 million acres last year.

USDA will also issue a March 1 quarterly grain stocks report.

Analysts in the Reuters poll pegged U.S. soybean stocks at 989 million bushels, down from 998 million a year earlier.

Quarterly stocks of corn are forecast at 7.099 billion bu.

The average trade estimate for U.S. March 1 wheat stocks was 1.042 billion bu., compared with Dec. 1 stocks at 1.463 billion.

The stocks numbers might shed a little light on U.S. demand for feed grains. Demand could be off a little because of the hog losses associated with PED.

The average forecast of U.S. all-wheat plantings ahead of the USDA report was 56.277 million acres. The average for spring wheat other than durum was 12.270 million acres, and the average for durum wheat was 1.794 million.

The Australian weather service today raised its confidence level for an El Nino establishing itself this summer. An El Nino tends to bring dry conditions to Australia where key agricultural regions are already dry.

The current dry conditions in eastern Australia will get a little relief from showers today and tomorrow.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2014       453.20       +5.20       +1.16%

Canola Jul 2014       462.90       +5.40       +1.18%

Canola Nov 2014       480.20       +5.30       +1.12%

Canola Jan 2015       487.70       +5.40       +1.12%

Canola Mar 2015       494.90       +5.40       +1.10%

 

Milling Wheat May 2014       229.00       unch       0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2014       226.00       unch       0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014       227.00       unch       0.00%

 

Durum Wheat May 2014       250.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2014       250.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014       252.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley May 2014       130.50       unch       0.00%

Barley Jul 2014       128.50       unch       0.00%

Barley Oct 2014       128.50       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 2014       1428       +2.5       +0.18%

Soybeans Jul 2014       1401.25       +2.5       +0.18%

Soybeans Aug 2014       1342.25       +4       +0.30%

Soybeans Sep 2014       1246       +4.75       +0.38%

Soybeans Nov 2014       1188.75       +4.75       +0.40%

Soybeans Jan 2015       1192.75       +4.75       +0.40%

 

Soybean Meal May 2014       463.7       +1.7       +0.37%

Soybean Meal Jul 2014       449.2       +1.5       +0.34%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014       426.2       +1.4       +0.33%

 

Soybean Oil May 2014       40.74       -0.1       -0.24%

Soybean Oil Jul 2014       40.96       -0.07       -0.17%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014       40.91       +0.03       +0.07%

 

Corn May 2014       486.5       -3.5       -0.71%

Corn Jul 2014       491.25       -3.25       -0.66%

Corn Sep 2014       488.25       -2.25       -0.46%

Corn Dec 2014       486.25       -1.5       -0.31%

Corn Mar 2015       493.75       -1.75       -0.35%

 

Oats May 2014       402.25       -15.25       -3.65%

Oats Jul 2014       366.75       -11.75       -3.10%

Oats Sep 2014       342.5       -2.5       -0.72%

Oats Dec 2014       335       -0.75       -0.22%

Oats Mar 2015       332.5       +1.75       +0.53%

 

Wheat May 2014       708.25       -6.25       -0.87%

Wheat Jul 2014       711.75       -5       -0.70%

Wheat Sep 2014       718.75       -4.75       -0.66%

Wheat Dec 2014       728.25       -4.25       -0.58%

Wheat Mar 2015       733.75       -4       -0.54%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2014       763       unch       0.00%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014       759.25       unch       0.00%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014       761       unch       0.00%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014       767.75       +1       +0.13%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       772       unch       0.00%

 

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat May 2014       791.75       -2.75       -0.35%

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014       790.25       unch       0.00%

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014       792.5       +0.75       +0.09%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014       800       +1.75       +0.22%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015       799.5       +2.75       +0.35%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 41 cents at $99.19 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 89.48 cents US, up from 89.15 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1176 Cdn.

Stock markets were buoyed by data that showed U.S. consumer confidence rose more than expected in March, climbing to its highest level since January 2008.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index closed up 20.94 points or 0.15 percent at 14,299.49.

The Dow closed up 0.56 percent at 16,367.88.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 closed up 0.49 percent at 1,866.45.

The Nasdaq closed up 0.18 percent at 4,234.03.

Easterm Europe and Ukraine are dry.
Easterm Europe and Ukraine are dry.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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