Old crop canola rises ahead of Friday’s USDA crop forecasts

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Published: May 9, 2013

Seeding is really starting to get going on the Canadian Prairies finally but still canola and most crop futures rose today.

Canola prices varied below and above the previous day’s close but a strong drive just before the close caused prices to settle higher in light trade.

Old crop prices were again supported by concerns about tight stocks. Steady cash demand supported U.S. nearby futures.

New crop rose less than old crop.

Many traders were squaring up positions ahead of Friday’s USDA reports that will update 2012-13 year-end stocks and also issue the first outlooks for U.S. and global supply and demand for 2013-1 crops. The first farmer survey-based estimate of the U.S. winter wheat crop will be included.

Read Also

Photo: JHVEPhoto/Getty Images Plus

U.S. grains: Corn, soybeans extend losses as Midwest weather looks crop-friendly

Chicago Board of Trade corn futures extended session losses on Tuesday, weighed down by forecasts for crop-friendly rain in U.S. grain belts this week.

The strong run up today in old crop corn, up more than 2.5 percent, might lead to a fairly strong decline Friday if the USDA numbers are not surprisingly bullish.

The trade already expects USDA will trim its forecasts of U.S. 2012-13 corn and soybean ending stocks.

The average trade estimate of 2013-14 U.S. corn ending stocks among analysts surveyed by Reuters was 1.993 billion bushels, but estimates ranged widely from 1.387 billion to 2.427 billion.

The average trade estimate of 2013-14 U.S. soy ending stocks in the Reuters survey was 236 billion bu., with estimates ranging from 147 million to 325 million.

Watch for my Tweets about Friday morning’s USDA report @darcemcmillan.

We’ll also have coverage in the daily news section at Producer.com.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the latest data confirmed its forecast that El Nino was unlikely to cause extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the summer and into winter.

The two-week forecast on the Weather Network for the Prairies looks pretty dry so here’s hoping producers can cover a lot of acres in record time!

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2013       636.80       +4.50       +0.71%

Canola Jul 2013       606.80       +4.50       +0.75%

Canola Nov 2013       536.80       +0.40       +0.07%

Canola Jan 2014       537.10       +0.10       +0.02%

Canola Mar 2014       532.60       +0.10       +0.02%

 

Milling Wheat May 2013       292.00       unch       0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2013       294.00       unch       0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013       294.00       unch       0.00%

 

Durum Wheat May 2013       301.90       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2013       301.90       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013       294.90       unch       0.00%

 

Barley May 2013       243.50       unch       0.00%

Barley Jul 2013       244.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Oct 2013       194.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 2013       1491.25       +12.25       +0.83%

Soybeans Jul 2013       1408.75       +18       +1.29%

Soybeans Aug 2013       1340       +10.5       +0.79%

Soybeans Sep 2013       1264.25       +7.25       +0.58%

Soybeans Nov 2013       1219       +4.75       +0.39%

Soybeans Jan 2014       1226.25       +4.5       +0.37%

 

Soybean Meal May 2013       440.1       +14.8       +3.48%

Soybean Meal Jul 2013       413.2       +5.6       +1.37%

Soybean Meal Aug 2013       387.7       +2.5       +0.65%

 

Soybean Oil May 2013       49.07       +0.41       +0.84%

Soybean Oil Jul 2013       49.22       +0.4       +0.82%

Soybean Oil Aug 2013       48.97       +0.37       +0.76%

 

Corn May 2013       694.5       +19.5       +2.89%

Corn Jul 2013       648.75       +15.75       +2.49%

Corn Sep 2013       566       +12.25       +2.21%

Corn Dec 2013       541.5       +9.5       +1.79%

Corn Mar 2014       551.5       +8.75       +1.61%

 

Oats May 2013       413       +4.25       +1.04%

Oats Jul 2013       382.5       +4.25       +1.12%

Oats Sep 2013       370.5       +2.5       +0.68%

Oats Dec 2013       360.5       +1.25       +0.35%

Oats Mar 2014       365.25       +2       +0.55%

 

Wheat May 2013       716.25       +19.5       +2.80%

Wheat Jul 2013       723.5       +17.5       +2.48%

Wheat Sep 2013       731.5       +16.25       +2.27%

Wheat Dec 2013       748.25       +15.5       +2.12%

Wheat Mar 2014       763.5       +15.5       +2.07%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2013       857.75       unch       0.00%

Spring Wheat Jul 2013       825.5       +9.25       +1.13%

Spring Wheat Sep 2013       821.25       +10.5       +1.30%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013       828.75       +10.75       +1.31%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014       840.25       +13       +1.57%

 

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat May 2013       792       +20.25       +2.62%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013       779.25       +19       +2.50%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013       787.5       +17.5       +2.27%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013       805       +17.5       +2.22%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014       818       +17.5       +2.19%

 

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York down 23 cents at $96.39 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 99.73 cents US, down from 99.77 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0027 Cdn.

The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless aid fell last week to its lowest level in nearly 5-1/2 years.

But stock prices, flush with a long run of up days, ran out of steam today and finished lower.

In early tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite fell 41.15 points or 0.33 percent to 12,543.90.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 22.50 points, or 0.15 percent, to end at 15,082.62.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 6.02 points, or 0.37 percent, to close at 1,626.67.

The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 4.10 points, or 0.12 percent, to finish at 3,409.17.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

Markets at a glance

explore

Stories from our other publications