Seeding is really starting to get going on the Canadian Prairies finally but still canola and most crop futures rose today.
Canola prices varied below and above the previous day’s close but a strong drive just before the close caused prices to settle higher in light trade.
Old crop prices were again supported by concerns about tight stocks. Steady cash demand supported U.S. nearby futures.
New crop rose less than old crop.
Many traders were squaring up positions ahead of Friday’s USDA reports that will update 2012-13 year-end stocks and also issue the first outlooks for U.S. and global supply and demand for 2013-1 crops. The first farmer survey-based estimate of the U.S. winter wheat crop will be included.
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The strong run up today in old crop corn, up more than 2.5 percent, might lead to a fairly strong decline Friday if the USDA numbers are not surprisingly bullish.
The trade already expects USDA will trim its forecasts of U.S. 2012-13 corn and soybean ending stocks.
The average trade estimate of 2013-14 U.S. corn ending stocks among analysts surveyed by Reuters was 1.993 billion bushels, but estimates ranged widely from 1.387 billion to 2.427 billion.
The average trade estimate of 2013-14 U.S. soy ending stocks in the Reuters survey was 236 billion bu., with estimates ranging from 147 million to 325 million.
Watch for my Tweets about Friday morning’s USDA report @darcemcmillan.
We’ll also have coverage in the daily news section at Producer.com.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the latest data confirmed its forecast that El Nino was unlikely to cause extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the summer and into winter.
The two-week forecast on the Weather Network for the Prairies looks pretty dry so here’s hoping producers can cover a lot of acres in record time!
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2013 636.80 +4.50 +0.71%
Canola Jul 2013 606.80 +4.50 +0.75%
Canola Nov 2013 536.80 +0.40 +0.07%
Canola Jan 2014 537.10 +0.10 +0.02%
Canola Mar 2014 532.60 +0.10 +0.02%
Milling Wheat May 2013 292.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 294.90 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2013 243.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2013 1491.25 +12.25 +0.83%
Soybeans Jul 2013 1408.75 +18 +1.29%
Soybeans Aug 2013 1340 +10.5 +0.79%
Soybeans Sep 2013 1264.25 +7.25 +0.58%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1219 +4.75 +0.39%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1226.25 +4.5 +0.37%
Soybean Meal May 2013 440.1 +14.8 +3.48%
Soybean Meal Jul 2013 413.2 +5.6 +1.37%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013 387.7 +2.5 +0.65%
Soybean Oil May 2013 49.07 +0.41 +0.84%
Soybean Oil Jul 2013 49.22 +0.4 +0.82%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013 48.97 +0.37 +0.76%
Corn May 2013 694.5 +19.5 +2.89%
Corn Jul 2013 648.75 +15.75 +2.49%
Corn Sep 2013 566 +12.25 +2.21%
Corn Dec 2013 541.5 +9.5 +1.79%
Corn Mar 2014 551.5 +8.75 +1.61%
Oats May 2013 413 +4.25 +1.04%
Oats Jul 2013 382.5 +4.25 +1.12%
Oats Sep 2013 370.5 +2.5 +0.68%
Oats Dec 2013 360.5 +1.25 +0.35%
Oats Mar 2014 365.25 +2 +0.55%
Wheat May 2013 716.25 +19.5 +2.80%
Wheat Jul 2013 723.5 +17.5 +2.48%
Wheat Sep 2013 731.5 +16.25 +2.27%
Wheat Dec 2013 748.25 +15.5 +2.12%
Wheat Mar 2014 763.5 +15.5 +2.07%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2013 857.75 unch 0.00%
Spring Wheat Jul 2013 825.5 +9.25 +1.13%
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 821.25 +10.5 +1.30%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 828.75 +10.75 +1.31%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 840.25 +13 +1.57%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat May 2013 792 +20.25 +2.62%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 779.25 +19 +2.50%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 787.5 +17.5 +2.27%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 805 +17.5 +2.22%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 818 +17.5 +2.19%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York down 23 cents at $96.39 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 99.73 cents US, down from 99.77 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0027 Cdn.
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless aid fell last week to its lowest level in nearly 5-1/2 years.
But stock prices, flush with a long run of up days, ran out of steam today and finished lower.
In early tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite fell 41.15 points or 0.33 percent to 12,543.90.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 22.50 points, or 0.15 percent, to end at 15,082.62.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 6.02 points, or 0.37 percent, to close at 1,626.67.
The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 4.10 points, or 0.12 percent, to finish at 3,409.17.
