Old crop canola gains $14.60 on week on concerns about tight stocks

Canola futures rose Friday, finishing a strong week when concerns about old crop supplies, a late start to seeding and a potential late harvest drove values higher.

Canola got no help from soybeans today, which dropped on profit taking and technical weakness after hitting a three week high on Thursday.

Fund buying helped lift canola as did lack of farmer selling.

May canola closed at $640,up $5.10 and November at $562.50, up $2.30.

On the week, May rose $14.60 while new crop November climbed only $2.

New crop oilseed futures have not faired as well as the nearby contract because of thoughts that seeding delays in the U.S. might push farmers to switch some corn acres to soybeans.

Corn rose today on concerns over late seeding. In the USDA planting intentions report North Dakota was planning to increase corn area by 500,000 acres or 14 percent, accounting for most of the increase in national acres. With the late seeding, I wonder how much of that is going to get planted? I hear Manitoba corn acres will likely not be as high as thought a month or so ago.

Wheat was supported by another round of overnight lows that fell well below the freezing point in western Kansas and eastern Colorado. There have now been multiple freezes but wheat has not really taken off. Perhaps analysts think that improved moisture and yield potential in areas not hit by freeze will offset damage?

U.S. winter wheat areas

Stock markets tended to be a little stronger today, supported by good quarterly profit reports from Microsoft and Google and strong gold and oil prices.

Markets were rattled earlier in the week by the plunge in gold prices and slower growth in the first quarter in China.

I don’t see a lot of reporting about it yet, but it is pretty dry in northern China where they seed corn and soybeans. Also it’s cold like here, so seeding is delayed.

It is also very dry in eastern Australia where seeding of winter wheat and canola is about to begin.

Australian March rain

The USDA cattle on feed report today surprised traders with more cattle placed in March than expected, up six percent from same time last year. Analysts on average had expected a 1.5 percent decrease. The news is a bit bullish for corn.

Statistics Canada next week releases is prospective seeding report on Wednesday. FarmLink Marketing Solutions yesterday released its forecast.

It says that compared to its last forecast in February farmers will likely seed less wheat, durum, corn and soybeans. Most of those acres will likely go into summerfallow because of excessive moisture, but it also expects more lentils, flax, beans, barley and oats.

There was no change in its forecast for canola area, at 20 million acres, down from about 21.5 million in 2012.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2013 640.00 +5.10 +0.80%

Canola Jul 2013 624.40 +3.80 +0.61%

Canola Nov 2013 562.50 +2.30 +0.41%

Canola Jan 2014 562.80 +2.70 +0.48%

Canola Mar 2014 557.00 +1.90 +0.34%

Milling Wheat May 2013 292.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2013 310.80 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2013 313.80 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013 299.10 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2013 243.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2013 1428.25 -2.25 -0.16%

Soybeans Jul 2013 1382.5 -7.5 -0.54%

Soybeans Aug 2013 1328.5 -10.5 -0.78%

Soybeans Sep 2013 1258.25 -10 -0.79%

Soybeans Nov 2013 1213 -10.5 -0.86%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1220.75 -10.25 -0.83%

Soybean Meal May 2013 412.4 +1.4 +0.34%

Soybean Meal Jul 2013 402.5 -0.6 -0.15%

Soybean Meal Aug 2013 381 -1.4 -0.37%

Soybean Oil May 2013 49.16 -0.5 -1.01%

Soybean Oil Jul 2013 49.18 -0.48 -0.97%

Soybean Oil Aug 2013 49.08 -0.44 -0.89%

Corn May 2013 652 +7.5 +1.16%

Corn Jul 2013 633 +3.25 +0.52%

Corn Sep 2013 572 +5.25 +0.93%

Corn Dec 2013 547 +5.75 +1.06%

Corn Mar 2014 557.25 +5.5 +1.00%

Oats May 2013 392 +3.5 +0.90%

Oats Jul 2013 383 +3.75 +0.99%

Oats Sep 2013 368.25 -1 -0.27%

Oats Dec 2013 364.25 -1.25 -0.34%

Oats Mar 2014 368.75 -1.25 -0.34%

Chicago soft red winter

Wheat May 2013 709 +6.25 +0.89%

Wheat Jul 2013 711.5 +4.75 +0.67%

Wheat Sep 2013 718 +4.25 +0.60%

Wheat Dec 2013 731.5 +4 +0.55%

Wheat Mar 2014 744.5 +4 +0.54%

Minneapolis hard red spring

Spring Wheat May 2013 825.5 +7.75 +0.95%

Spring Wheat Jul 2013 806.25 +4 +0.50%

Spring Wheat Sep 2013 800 +4.25 +0.53%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 808 +4 +0.50%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 822.25 +4.5 +0.55%

Kansas City hard red winter

KCBT Red Wheat May 2013 746 +2.25 +0.30%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 750.5 +1.5 +0.20%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 761.75 +1 +0.13%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 778.25 +0.5 +0.06%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 790.75 unch 0.00%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 28 cents at $88.01 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 97.43 cents US, down from 97.51 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0264 Cdn.

In early unofficial tallies —

The TSX rose 69.21 or 0.58 percent to close at 12,065.55

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 9.91 points to 14,547.05.

The S&P 500 index added 13.59 points to 1,555.20.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced 40.48 points to 3,206.82.

On the week, the TSX fell 2.2 percent, the Dow was down 2.1 percent, the S&P was down 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq fell 2.7 percent.

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