Old crop canola edges higher, but weakness dominates rest of oilseed market

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Published: April 18, 2017

The different attitudes about old and new crop canola were again displayed Tuesday as the May contract crept higher while November was nudged lower.

The expectation of tight year end stocks of canola and short covering helped lift May up $3.40 per tonne, to settle at $512.20. The loonie was lower, which also supported canola.

New crop November fell 20 cents to settle at $485.70.

The snow in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan over the weekend will make it harder to harvest the remaining 2016 crop that was left out over winter.

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The strength in the old crop canola contracts was notable as the entire soybean complex was lower.

Soy oil in particular took it on the nose, falling more than two percent.

The weekly U.S. export data from Monday was disappointing for soybeans. The monthly U.S. soybean crush report on Monday was also disappointing, with about 153.1 million bushels processed, short of expectations for 156.7 million.

Soybeans were also pressured by improving, drier conditions for the soybean harvest in Argentina.

Malaysian palm oil futures fell for the fifth day in a row on Tuesday, weighed down by forecasts of rising output and tracking weaker performing rival oils.

WHEAT

American wheat futures rose with Minneapolis spring wheat leading the way, rising almost two percent in the May contract. Short covering was a feature after wheat hit a 10 day low on Monday. The trade might also have been slightly concerned about the slow pace of spring wheat planting.

U.S. Agriculture Department on Monday afternoon said the winter wheat crop was rated 54 percent good to excellent, up from 53 percent last week and in line with market expectations. Last year it was 57 percent good to excellent.

The areas struggling the most are Colorado and western Kansas.

U.S. spring wheat was 13 percent planted down from 25 percent last year, and 21 on average.

American farmers had seeded six percent of their intended corn acreage as of April 16, below market forecasts and below the 12 percent seeded last year, and nine percent on average.

WEATHER

Cool weather is doing little to help dry fields in much of the Canadian Prairies.

Light rain is expected in parts of Saskatchewan Wednesday with the largest amounts in east central parts of the province and again on Friday.

Large rain accumulations are expected over the next seven days in Missouri and eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. This is a little further south than was the forecast last week.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 24 cents to US$52.41 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.67 cents, down from 75.09 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3392.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 62.32 points, or 0.4 percent, to finish at 15,622.57.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 113.64 points, or 0.55 percent, to 20,523.28, the S&P 500 lost 6.83 points, or 0.29 percent, to 2,342.18 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 7.32 points, or 0.12 percent, to 5,849.47.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2017   512.20   +3.40   +0.67%

Canola Jul 2017   507.80   +1.50   +0.30%

Canola Nov 2017   485.70   -0.20   -0.04%

Canola Jan 2018 489.30   -0.10   -0.02%

Canola Mar 2018   493.00   unch   0.00%

 

Milling Wheat May 2017   230.00   +4.00   +1.77%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017   233.00   +4.00   +1.75%

Milling Wheat Oct 2017   227.00  +3.00   +1.34%

 

Durum Wheat May 2017   271.00   +3.00   +1.12%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017   271.00   +1.00   +0.37%

Durum Wheat Oct 2017   263.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley May 2017   137.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Jul 2017   138.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2017   140.00   unch   0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 2017   946.00   -7.25   -0.76%

Soybeans Jul 2017   956.25   -7.50   -0.78%

Soybeans Aug 2017   958.25   -7.25   -0.75%

Soybeans Sep 2017   957.00   -6.50   -0.67%

Soybeans Nov 2017   956.75   -5.50   -0.57%

Soybeans Jan 2018   964.00   -4.75   -0.49%

 

Soybean Meal May 2017   312.20   -1.20   -0.38%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017   316.60   -1.10   -0.35%

Soybean Meal Aug 2017   317.50   -0.90   -0.28%

 

Soybean Oil May 2017   31.14   -0.66   -2.08%

Soybean Oil Jul 2017   31.38   -0.65   -2.03%

Soybean Oil Aug 2017   31.49   -0.65   -2.02%

 

Corn May 2017   361.75   -4.75   -1.30%

Corn Jul 2017   368.25   -5.00   -1.34%

Corn Sep 2017   375.75   -4.25   -1.12%

Corn Dec 2017   386.25   -4.00   -1.02%

Corn Mar 2018   396.00   -3.75   -0.94%

 

Oats May 2017   218.75   -0.50   -0.23%

Oats Jul 2017   217.75   -0.75   -0.34%

Oats Sep 2017   215.00   -1.25   -0.58%

Oats Dec 2017   216.50 -2.00   -0.92%

Oats Mar 2018   224.00   -1.75   -0.78%

 

Wheat May 2017   422.50   +1.50   +0.36%

Wheat Jul 2017   437.00   +1.25   +0.29%

Wheat Sep 2017   450.75   +1.25   +0.28%

Wheat Dec 2017   472.00   +2.00   +0.43%

Wheat Mar 2018   489.50   +2.25   +0.46%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2017   539.25   +10.50   +1.99%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017   547.25   +9.75   +1.81%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017   554.75   +9.25   +1.70%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017   564.50   +8.00   +1.44%

Spring Wheat Mar 2018   574.00   +7.00   +1.23%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2017   419.25   +3.00   +0.72%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017   432.00   +3.00   +0.70%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017   448.00   +3.00   +0.67%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017   474.25   +4.00   +0.85%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018   491.75   +4.50   +0.92%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017   126.78   +0.36   +0.28%

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017   115.65   +0.08   +0.07%

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017   111.82   +0.27   +0.24%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017   138.68   -0.37   -0.27%

Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017   140.08   -0.07   -0.05%

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017   142.18   -0.04   -0.03%

 

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017   67.15   -0.57   -0.84%

Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017   71.50   -0.85   -1.17%

Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017   72.90   -0.45   -0.61%

 

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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