Oilseeds dip, cereals edge up in positioning ahead of USDA report

Oilseeds slipped on Tuesday and corn and wheat edged higher on a day when traders were positioning ahead of the USDA supply and demand reports on Thurday.

The prospect of a huge canola harvest continued to weigh on canola futures and soybeans were weighed down by weather forecasts that indicate the possibilities of showers in the dry Midwest. The western cornbelt has suffered a heatwave in recent days.

The weather on the Canadian Prairies is expected to remain mostly dry and warmer than normal into the early part of next week. After that, the long range forecast is for continued sunny days but temperatures near the seasonal norm with highs in the high to mid teens. There is no frost in the forecast.

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The loonie edged higher.

Cereals were supported by short covering as traders wanted to reduce risk exposure ahead of he USDA report. A Reuters poll of 29 analysts showed the average estimate for 2013 U.S. corn production at a record large 13.620 billion bushels, below the USDA's forecast in August for 13.763 billion bu.

The same poll put the average soybean forecast at 3.140 billion bu., below the USDA’s forecast in August for 3.255 billion bu.

Wheat was supported by news of smaller crops in Brazil and Australia.

Australia trimmed its forecast for wheat production by about a million tonnes or about three percent to 24.467 million tonnes due to dry weather across key growing areas.

In June the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences forecast 25.4 million tonnes. Last year it grew 22.1 million tonnes.

ABARES pegged the canola crop at 3.3 million tonnes from 3.2 million projected in June. Barley output is expected to total 7.7 million tonnes, up from a June estimate of 7.4 million.

Brazil’s Conab cut its forecast 2013-14 wheat crop by 11.9 percent or about 700,000 tonnes to 4.95 million tonnes due to frost.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2013 496.20 -2.80 -0.56%

Canola Jan 2014 503.80 -2.70 -0.53%

Canola Mar 2014 510.30 -2.50 -0.49%

Canola May 2014 514.70 -2.50 -0.48%

Canola Jul 2014 517.30 -3.10 -0.60%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013 241.00 +1.00 +0.42%

Milling Wheat Dec 2013 245.00 +1.00 +0.41%

Milling Wheat Mar 2014 250.00 +1.00 +0.40%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013 259.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2013 267.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2014 273.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2013 189.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2014 194.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Sep 2013 1403.75 -0.5 -0.04%

Soybeans Nov 2013 1355 -1.5 -0.11%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1355.25 -0.5 -0.04%

Soybeans Mar 2014 1338.25 unch 0.00%

Soybeans May 2014 1309.5 unch 0.00%

Soybeans Jul 2014 1303 unch 0.00%

Soybean Meal Sep 2013 462.5 -3.3 -0.71%

Soybean Meal Oct 2013 428.4 -2.2 -0.51%

Soybean Meal Dec 2013 425.2 -1.3 -0.30%

Soybean Oil Sep 2013 42.73 -0.08 -0.19%

Soybean Oil Oct 2013 42.81 -0.07 -0.16%

Soybean Oil Dec 2013 43.07 -0.1 -0.23%

Corn Sep 2013 474.75 -2.5 -0.52%

Corn Dec 2013 469 +5.5 +1.19%

Corn Mar 2014 481.75 +5.25 +1.10%

Corn May 2014 490 +5.25 +1.08%

Corn Jul 2014 496.75 +5.5 +1.12%

Oats Sep 2013 367.5 +4.75 +1.31%

Oats Dec 2013 318.75 +5 +1.59%

Oats Mar 2014 322 +3.25 +1.02%

Oats May 2014 324 +2 +0.62%

Oats Jul 2014 315 +2 +0.64%

Wheat Sep 2013 633.75 +5 +0.80%

Wheat Dec 2013 646.5 +5.25 +0.82%

Wheat Mar 2014 657.75 +4.25 +0.65%

Wheat May 2014 665.25 +4 +0.60%

Wheat Jul 2014 660 +3 +0.46%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2013 701 +2.25 +0.32%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 705.75 +3 +0.43%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 719.5 +2.5 +0.35%

Spring Wheat May 2014 728.5 +2.5 +0.34%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014 735 +3 +0.41%

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 706.75 +5.25 +0.75%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 694.75 +6.25 +0.91%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 702.25 +6 +0.86%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 706.5 +5.75 +0.82%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 697.75 +5.75 +0.83%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $2.13 at $107.39 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.55 cents US, up from 96.47 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0357 Cdn.

Gathering momentum behind Russia’s proposal that Syria hand over its chemical weapons for destruction helped to lift the stock market and lower oil and gold prices. The market has been nervous about possible American missile strikes at Syria. Market reaction to Apple’s launch of two new iPhones appears to be mostly a yawn.

The lower gold and oil prices weighed on the commodity heavy TSX composite index.

In early unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 30.16 points, or 0.23 percent, to close at 12,824.48.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 127.94 points or 0.85 percent, to 15,191.06.

The S&P 500 gained 12.28 points or 0.73 percent, to 1,683.99.

The Nasdaq Composite added 22.83 points or 0.62 percent, to 3,729.02.