Oilseed, cereal markets creep upward

A mildly positive day in crop markets Monday saw slight rises in oilseed and cereal grain markets.

Some analysts think recent declines were too severe and believe the markets are oversold.

Gains in canola declined during the day but the market held on to settle up, with November at $478.60, up $1.00 supported by good crusher demand and a weaker loonie.

In wheat, the most bullish market, Statistics Canada’s Friday report that pegged the Canadian wheat crop at 33 million tonnes did not have a major impact because that was broadly expected.

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Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada made several upward adjustments to its supply and demand estimates, after including the data from the Statistics Canada production update earlier this month.

More influential are worries that Ukrainian and Russian winter wheat acreage is threatened by excess fall rain.

Wheat also continues to fly out of North America at a high rate, lessening worries about oversupply.

Much market data on crop progress — normally released Monday afternoons — and speculators’ futures positions — normally released Friday afternoons — are not available because of the U.S. government partial shutdown.

U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Oct. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates is also being delayed, something that will give the market jitters until it appears, trader say.

Most expect speculators to liquidate positions until they have access to current USDA data, and to see volatility arising from the spottiness of private data appearing in the market.

Equity markets had a bad day, as concerns about the U.S. government shutdown continued to overhang everything.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013    478.60    +1.00    +0.21%
Canola Jan 2014    487.80    +0.90    +0.18%
Canola Mar 2014    494.90    +0.80    +0.16%
Canola May 2014    500.90    +1.10    +0.22%
Canola Jul 2014    505.60    +1.10    +0.22%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013    237.00    -4.00    -1.66%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013    240.00    -3.00    -1.23%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014    246.00    -3.00    -1.20%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013    243.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013    247.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014    253.00    unch    0.00%

Barley Oct 2013    148.50    -0.50    -0.34%
Barley Dec 2013    151.50    -0.50    -0.33%
Barley Mar 2014    153.50    -0.50    -0.32%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2013    1296.5    +1.5    +0.12%
Soybeans Jan 2014    1297    +2    +0.15%
Soybeans Mar 2014    1284.25    +5    +0.39%
Soybeans May 2014    1264.25    +6.5    +0.52%
Soybeans Jul 2014    1260.75    +7.5    +0.60%
Soybeans Aug 2014    1249.75    +7.25    +0.58%

Soybean Meal Oct 2013    433.7    +2.4    +0.56%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013    420.7    +2.3    +0.55%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014    417    +3.3    +0.80%

Soybean Oil Oct 2013    39.65    -0.34    -0.85%

Soybean Oil Dec 2013    39.9    -0.34    -0.84%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014    40.22    -0.34    -0.84%

Corn Dec 2013    449.25    +6    +1.35%
Corn Mar 2014    461.75    +5.75    +1.26%
Corn May 2014    469.75    +5.25    +1.13%
Corn Jul 2014    477    +5.25    +1.11%
Corn Sep 2014    482.75    +5.25    +1.10%

Oats Dec 2013    317.5    -0.75    -0.24%
Oats Mar 2014    305.75    -0.5    -0.16%
Oats May 2014    304.75    -1    -0.33%
Oats Jul 2014    299.5    -1    -0.33%
Oats Sep 2014    304.5    -1    -0.33%

Wheat Dec 2013    694.75    +7.75    +1.13%
Wheat Mar 2014    704.5    +8.25    +1.18%
Wheat May 2014    709.75    +8    +1.14%
Wheat Jul 2014    701    +7.25    +1.05%
Wheat Sep 2014    706.25    +7    +1.00%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013    750.25    +4    +0.54%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014    759.5    +6.75    +0.90%
Spring Wheat May 2014    763.5    +6.5    +0.86%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014    766    +6.25    +0.82%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014    768    +6.75    +0.89%

Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013    756.5    +6.25    +0.83%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014    756    +6.5    +0.87%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014    755.75    +7    +0.93%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014    739.75    +6.75    +0.92%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014    748.5    +7.75    +1.05%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 81 cents at $103.03 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 97.03 cents US, unchanged from the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0306 Cdn.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 136.34 points, or 0.90 percent, at 14,936.24.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 14.38 points, or 0.85 percent, at 1,676.12.

The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 37.38 points, or 0.98 percent, at 3,770.38.