New crop canola dips on better rain in Argentina

Nearby canola was almost steady on Wednesday but new crop edged lower, pressured by falling soybeans.

Soybeans fell on new forecasts for a slightly wetter outlook for Argentina next week.

The drop was limited by expectations that Friday’s USDA reports will drop the forecast for year end U.S. soybean stocks.

However, expectations are that USDA will increase its corn stocks estimate Friday.

Old crop canola remains well supported by tight stocks, continuing good demand and thoughts that prices must stay high to ration demand.

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March canola closed at $638.20 per tonne, up 40 cents. November closed at $560.50, down $4.

Wheat stopped a multiday decline, supported by bargain buying and by weather forecasts that now say Kansas will not get moisture from a weekend storm. Nebraska might get about one centimetre of moisture.

• Crop forecaster Lanworth today forecast U.S. corn production of 13.8 billion bushels in the 2013-14 crop year, with average yields rising to 155.6 bu. per acre, Reuters reported.

But it said the forecast would have to decline if dry weather continues into the growing season.

Lanworth cut its forecast of U.S. wheat production to 1.932 billion bushels from 1.941 billion.

It trimmed its expectation for Argentine soybean production to 51.6 million tonnes from 53.1 million, Reuters said.

It pegged Argentine corn production at 25.1 million tonnes, down from 25.6 million earlier.

It sees Brazil corn production at 75.6 million tonnes, down from 75.8 million and soybeans at 80.3 million tonnes from 80.9 million.

It expects Russia will harvest 49.9 million tonnes of wheat and Ukraine 23 million tonnes, unchanged from a previous forecast, Reuters reported.

• I have seen some chatter on Twitter that traders at the Rosario grain exchange in Argentina are penciling in soybean production at less than 50 million tonnes, but that is not official. On Jan. 23 the exchange pegged the crop at 53 million tonnes.

Winnipeg ICE Futures (per tonne)

Canola Mar 13 $638.20, up $0.40 +0.06%

Canola May 13 $624.20, down $1.70 -0.27%

Canola Jul 13 $611.60, down $2.60 -0.42%

Canola Nov 13 $560.50, down $4.00 -0.71%

Milling Wheat Mar 13 $291.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat May 13 $294.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Jul 13 $296.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Oct 13 $296.00, unchanged

Durum Wheat Mar 13 $312.40, unchanged

Durum Wheat May 13 $316.40, unchanged

Durum Wheat Jul 13 $319.40, unchanged

Durum Wheat Oct 13 $304.70, unchanged

Barley Mar 13 $241.50, unchanged

Barley May 13 $242.50, unchanged

Barley Jul 13 $243.00, unchanged

Barley Oct 13 $243.00, unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans (P) Mar 13 $14.875, down 8.0 -0.53%

Soybeans (P) May 13 $14.7725, down 8.5 -0.57%

Soybeans (P) Jul 13 $14.685, down 8.0 -0.54%

Soybeans (P) Aug 13 $14.395, down 9.25 -0.64%

Soybeans (P) Sep 13 $13.8325, down 11.0 -0.79%

Soybeans (P) Nov 13 $13.36, down 12.25 -0.91%

Corn (P) Mar 13 $7.225, down 6.5 -0.89%

Corn (P) May 13 $7.24, down 6.75 -0.92%

Corn (P) Jul 13 $7.1475, down 7.25 -1.00%

Corn (P) Sep 13 $6.035, down 9.5 -1.55%

Corn (P) Dec 13 $5.7875, down 11.25 -1.91%

Oats (P) Mar 13 $3.7775, up 11.5 +3.14%

Oats (P) May 13 $3.7675, up 9.0 +2.45%

Oats (P) Jul 13 $3.7525, up 6.0 +1.62%

Oats (P) Sep 13 $3.745, up 6.0 +1.63%

Oats (P) Dec 13 $3.7175, up 6.0 +1.64%

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Mar 13 $8.4475, up 3.0 +0.36%

Spring Wheat May 13 $8.5775, up 3.0 +0.35%

Spring Wheat Jul 13 $8.6775, up 3.75+0.43%

Spring Wheat Sep 13 $8.695, up 2.5 +0.29%

Spring Wheat Dec 13 $8.7475, up 4.0 +0.46%

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was $1.0040 US up from $1.0028 the day before.

The U.S. buck was 99.60 cents Cdn.

Nearby crude oil in New York was down two cents at $96.62 per barrel.

Stock markets were mostly flat.

The S&P/TSX composite rose 15.94 points, or 0.13 percent, closing at 12,761.59

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 7.22 points, or 0.05 percent, at 13,986.52.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.83 points, or 0.05 percent, to 1,512.12.

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.10 points, or 0.10 percent, finishing at 3,168.48.

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