Thursday was like the flip-side of Wednesday in North American crop futures markets, with falling prices rather than yesterday’s rising prices.
But the movements were weak, reflecting a market without enough growing crops to make it too twitchy.
“It’s just the same, jittery, erratic trading of the spring markets,” said Ken Ball, a broker with P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.
“They may continue like this until the crops are in and the status of the area growing the crops is known.”
Nearby canola rose in sympathy with soybean oil, while most other crops fell. Oats played its normal contrary role, charting small gains versus general losses for other grains and feedgrains.
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Ball said the weak moves in the markets are also reflective of the generally cheap price of most crops. If prices were high, every bit of beneficial rain or good seeding or growing conditions could inspire fear in bulls and greed in bears, but when prices are low, the possibility of a selloff is much lower.
“We’re low enough that nobody wants to press too much further down until we get a look at the crops growing in June or July,” said Ball.
“If we were higher up there’d be more selling.”
On the Canadian Prairies farmers in some pockets have gotten lots of seeding done. Almost all farmers everywhere in Western Canada are ready to roll once a little more heat gets into the soil.
Unlike most years at this time, there are almost no areas beset by flooding and the prospect of delays.
“It’s the first time we might actually get a relatively uniform, almost semi-normal spring seeding under our belts,” said Ball.
While canola prices have recently cheapened versus soybeans after experience a run the other direction, there is a possibly bullish factor underlying the crop.
Statistics Canada’s 19.4 million acre projection for 2015-16 canola will not provide enough canola to make buyers feel comfortable. If farmers appear to be actually seeding less than 20 million acres, buyers are going to likely be seeking coverage.
Stock markets were off Thursday as more signs of U.S. economic weakness appeared.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.05 to US$59.63 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US82.52 cents, down from 83.65 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.21194.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2015 460.50 +4.30 +0.94%
Canola Jul 2015 446.50 -0.50 -0.11%
Canola Nov 2015 438.50 -0.50 -0.11%
Canola Jan 2016 439.70 -0.30 -0.07%
Canola Mar 2016 440.10 -0.10 -0.02%
Milling Wheat May 2015 198.00 -4.00 -1.98%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015 200.00 -5.00 -2.44%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 206.00 -4.00 -1.90%
Durum Wheat May 2015 313.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015 303.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 308.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2015 205.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2015 207.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2015 192.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2015 978.5 -10 -1.01%
Soybeans Jul 2015 976 -12 -1.21%
Soybeans Aug 2015 971 -11.25 -1.15%
Soybeans Sep 2015 958.75 -10 -1.03%
Soybeans Nov 2015 952.25 -9.5 -0.99%
Soybeans Jan 2016 958.25 -9.5 -0.98%
Soybean Meal May 2015 318.9 -5.3 -1.63%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 314.6 -5.7 -1.78%
Soybean Oil May 2015 31.51 +0.04 +0.13%
Soybean Oil Jul 2015 31.65 +0.01 +0.03%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015 31.72 unch 0.00%
Corn May 2015 362.5 -1.25 -0.34%
Corn Jul 2015 366.25 -1.5 -0.41%
Corn Sep 2015 372.75 -2 -0.53%
Corn Dec 2015 383.5 -2 -0.52%
Corn Mar 2016 394.75 -2.25 -0.57%
Oats May 2015 239.75 +6.5 +2.79%
Oats Jul 2015 244.25 +3.5 +1.45%
Oats Sep 2015 250.25 +2.75 +1.11%
Oats Dec 2015 257.25 +0.5 +0.19%
Oats Mar 2016 266 +0.25 +0.09%
Wheat May 2015 467 -10.25 -2.15%
Wheat Jul 2015 474 -9.5 -1.96%
Wheat Sep 2015 483.75 -9.5 -1.93%
Wheat Dec 2015 502.25 -9.25 -1.81%
Wheat Mar 2016 520 -8.75 -1.65%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2015 523.25 -12 -2.24%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 538 -10.75 -1.96%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 548 -11.5 -2.06%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 559.5 -12 -2.10%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 575.5 -11.5 -1.96%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat May 2015 490.25 -10.5 -2.10%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 499 -10.5 -2.06%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 509.25 -11.75 -2.26%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 528.5 -12 -2.22%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 541.5 -12.25 -2.21%
