May canola up on Brazil truckers' blockades

Most-traded May canola and other deferred contracts edged higher Thursday but March fell again.

My guess is that the sharp drop in March yesterday and today is mostly related to the fact it is in the delivery period and not a fundamental issue.

All the other canola contracts rose, regaining ground lost yesterday. Canola was supported by stronger soybeans, which revived when it became clear the Brazilian trucker strike was not going to be settled right away.

The strike is in its ninth day.

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Brazil’s government told truckers and transport companies late on Wednesday it would extend a year of free financing for vehicles from a state development bank and help truckers and transport companies work out a framework for setting freight rates, Reuters reported.

Trucking organizations are mulling the offer but have not called off road blockages. There were 91 roads blocked in nine states including top soybean states Mato Grosso and Parana.

In Paranagua, the second-largest grains exporting port, only 28 trucks arrived to deliver corn and soybeans on Thursday morning, compared to 950 trucks on a normal morning at this time of year, Reuters reported. The flow to the number one port Santos was normal.

The government plans to start fining truckers that block roads.

Meanwhile, Agroconsult, a Brazilian crop forecaster, increased its estimate of the country’s soybean crop to 94.7 million tonnes, up 828,000 tonnes, thanks to bumper crops in the south that more than made up for pockets of drought losses in the centre-west. The current USDA forecast is 94.5 million.

Argentina’s government estimated its soybean crop at 58 million tonnes. The current USDA forecast is 56 million.

Chicago wheat rose today, but Kansas and Minneapolis were mixed.

Chicago gained on profit taking after the spot price hit its lowest point since October.

Also weekly wheat export sales topped expectations, with soft red wheat having a good week while exports of hard red spring were the worst since August.

Gains were kept in check by ample world supplies and the fact American grain is priced higher than other exporters.

Corn futures bounced back up to the $3.80-$3.90 range they have been trading in for most of February.

Weekly export sales were at the low end of expectations, but corn largely followed soybeans higher.

The annual inflation rate in Canada fell to a one year low due to cheaper gas prices.

The annualized rate dropped to one percent from 1.5 percent in December.

The report will support ideas that the Bank of Canada will not increase interest rates anytime soon.

ScotiaBank released its currency forecast today. It seeds the Canadian dollar depreciating through the year, with a year end target of US75 cents.

The CWB released a new Pool Return Outlook the 2015-16 Early Delivery, Annual and Futures Choice Early Delivery pools.

Compared to the last PRO released in mid-January, projected returns for wheat and durum are $23 and $47 per tonne lower, respectively, while projected returns for canola and field peas are $20 and $10 per tonne higher, respectively. Malt barley projected returns remain unchanged. For the Futures Choice Early Delivery pools, wheat is down $13 per tonne and canola is unchanged.

For details on the PROs click here.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell $2.82 to US$48.17 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US80.06 cents, down from 80.52 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2490.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 12.59 points, or 0.08 percent, at 15,241.16.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 10.21 points, or 0.06 percent, to 18,214.36, the S&P 500 lost 3.09 points, or 0.15 percent, to 2,110.77 and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.75 points, or 0.42 percent, to 4,987.89.

ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2015 455.00 -3.50 -0.76%

Canola May 2015 463.40 +0.60 +0.13%

Canola Jul 2015 462.20 +4.00 +0.87%

Canola Nov 2015 452.10 +5.50 +1.23%

Canola Jan 2016 453.80 +5.60 +1.25%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015 217.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat May 2015 227.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015 230.00 +1.00 +0.44%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015 333.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015 323.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015 313.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2015 180.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2015 182.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2015 184.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2015 1024 +16.25 +1.61%

Soybeans May 2015 1026.5 +15.75 +1.56%

Soybeans Jul 2015 1030 +14.75 +1.45%

Soybeans Aug 2015 1027 +13.5 +1.33%

Soybeans Sep 2015 1010.25 +11.75 +1.18%

Soybeans Nov 2015 997.5 +10.25 +1.04%

Soybean Meal Mar 2015 354.6 +4.1 +1.17%

Soybean Meal May 2015 344.1 +4.3 +1.27%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015 340.3 +4 +1.19%

Soybean Oil Mar 2015 31.84 +0.13 +0.41%

Soybean Oil May 2015 32.04 +0.13 +0.41%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015 32.22 +0.11 +0.34%

Corn Mar 2015 380 +4.25 +1.13%

Corn May 2015 388.5 +4.75 +1.24%

Corn Jul 2015 396.5 +4.75 +1.21%

Corn Sep 2015 403.75 +4.5 +1.13%

Corn Dec 2015 413.75 +4.75 +1.16%

Oats Mar 2015 281.5 +6 +2.18%

Oats May 2015 274.5 +7.25 +2.71%

Oats Jul 2015 276.75 +6.5 +2.41%

Oats Sep 2015 282.75 +6.25 +2.26%

Oats Dec 2015 287.75 +6.5 +2.31%

Wheat Mar 2015 503.25 +5.5 +1.10%

Wheat May 2015 500.5 +3.25 +0.65%

Wheat Jul 2015 504.75 +3 +0.60%

Wheat Sep 2015 513.25 +2.75 +0.54%

Wheat Dec 2015 527 +3 +0.57%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 551.25 -1.5 -0.27%

Spring Wheat May 2015 556.75 +0.5 +0.09%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 563.5 +0.75 +0.13%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015 570.25 +0.75 +0.13%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015 582.25 +0.5 +0.09%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 527.25 -1 -0.19%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015 532.5 +1.75 +0.33%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 538.25 +2 +0.37%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 551 +1.5 +0.27%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 566.5 +1.5 +0.27%

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