Most-traded May canola and other deferred contracts edged higher Thursday but March fell again.
My guess is that the sharp drop in March yesterday and today is mostly related to the fact it is in the delivery period and not a fundamental issue.
All the other canola contracts rose, regaining ground lost yesterday. Canola was supported by stronger soybeans, which revived when it became clear the Brazilian trucker strike was not going to be settled right away.
The strike is in its ninth day.
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Brazil’s government told truckers and transport companies late on Wednesday it would extend a year of free financing for vehicles from a state development bank and help truckers and transport companies work out a framework for setting freight rates, Reuters reported.
Trucking organizations are mulling the offer but have not called off road blockages. There were 91 roads blocked in nine states including top soybean states Mato Grosso and Parana.
In Paranagua, the second-largest grains exporting port, only 28 trucks arrived to deliver corn and soybeans on Thursday morning, compared to 950 trucks on a normal morning at this time of year, Reuters reported. The flow to the number one port Santos was normal.
The government plans to start fining truckers that block roads.
Meanwhile, Agroconsult, a Brazilian crop forecaster, increased its estimate of the country’s soybean crop to 94.7 million tonnes, up 828,000 tonnes, thanks to bumper crops in the south that more than made up for pockets of drought losses in the centre-west. The current USDA forecast is 94.5 million.
Argentina’s government estimated its soybean crop at 58 million tonnes. The current USDA forecast is 56 million.
Chicago wheat rose today, but Kansas and Minneapolis were mixed.
Chicago gained on profit taking after the spot price hit its lowest point since October.
Also weekly wheat export sales topped expectations, with soft red wheat having a good week while exports of hard red spring were the worst since August.
Gains were kept in check by ample world supplies and the fact American grain is priced higher than other exporters.
Corn futures bounced back up to the $3.80-$3.90 range they have been trading in for most of February.
Weekly export sales were at the low end of expectations, but corn largely followed soybeans higher.
The annual inflation rate in Canada fell to a one year low due to cheaper gas prices.
The annualized rate dropped to one percent from 1.5 percent in December.
The report will support ideas that the Bank of Canada will not increase interest rates anytime soon.
ScotiaBank released its currency forecast today. It seeds the Canadian dollar depreciating through the year, with a year end target of US75 cents.
The CWB released a new Pool Return Outlook the 2015-16 Early Delivery, Annual and Futures Choice Early Delivery pools.
Compared to the last PRO released in mid-January, projected returns for wheat and durum are $23 and $47 per tonne lower, respectively, while projected returns for canola and field peas are $20 and $10 per tonne higher, respectively. Malt barley projected returns remain unchanged. For the Futures Choice Early Delivery pools, wheat is down $13 per tonne and canola is unchanged.
For details on the PROs click here.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell $2.82 to US$48.17 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US80.06 cents, down from 80.52 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2490.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 12.59 points, or 0.08 percent, at 15,241.16.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 10.21 points, or 0.06 percent, to 18,214.36, the S&P 500 lost 3.09 points, or 0.15 percent, to 2,110.77 and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.75 points, or 0.42 percent, to 4,987.89.
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ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 455.00Â Â Â Â Â Â -3.50Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.76%
Canola May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 463.40Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.60Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.13%
Canola Jul 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 462.20Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.87%
Canola Nov 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 452.10Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.50Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.23%
Canola Jan 2016Â Â Â Â Â Â 453.80Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.60Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.25%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015      217.00      unch      0.00%
Milling Wheat May 2015      227.00      unch      0.00%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 230.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.44%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015      333.00      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2015      323.00      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015      313.00      unch      0.00%
Barley Mar 2015      180.00      unch      0.00%
Barley May 2015      182.00      unch      0.00%
Barley Jul 2015      184.00      unch      0.00%
Â
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American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Â
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 1024Â Â Â Â Â Â +16.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.61%
Soybeans May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 1026.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +15.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.56%
Soybeans Jul 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 1030Â Â Â Â Â Â +14.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.45%
Soybeans Aug 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 1027Â Â Â Â Â Â +13.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.33%
Soybeans Sep 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 1010.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +11.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.18%
Soybeans Nov 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 997.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +10.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.04%
Soybean Meal Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 354.6Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.1Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.17%
Soybean Meal May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 344.1Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.3Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.27%
Soybean Meal Jul 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 340.3Â Â Â Â Â Â +4Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.19%
Soybean Oil Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 31.84Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.13Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.41%
Soybean Oil May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 32.04Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.13Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.41%
Soybean Oil Jul 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 32.22Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.11Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.34%
Corn Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 380Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.13%
Corn May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 388.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.24%
Corn Jul 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 396.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.21%
Corn Sep 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 403.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.13%
Corn Dec 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 413.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.16%
Oats Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 281.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +6Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.18%
Oats May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 274.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +7.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.71%
Oats Jul 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 276.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +6.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.41%
Oats Sep 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 282.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +6.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.26%
Oats Dec 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 287.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +6.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.31%
Wheat Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 503.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.10%
Wheat May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 500.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.65%
Wheat Jul 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 504.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +3Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.60%
Wheat Sep 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 513.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.54%
Wheat Dec 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 527Â Â Â Â Â Â +3Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.57%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 551.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.27%
Spring Wheat May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 556.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.09%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 563.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.13%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 570.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.13%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 582.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.09%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 527.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -1Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.19%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 532.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.33%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 538.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +2Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.37%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 551Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.27%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 566.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.27%