May canola sees wild swings but July settles little changed

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Published: April 29, 2014

The May canola contract saw big price swings Tuesday, ranging from a low of $470 to a high of $494.40, but settled at $471.90, down $10.60.

July, the most traded contract, saw about a $10 range and settled at $477.20, up 20 cents.

November closed down 20 cents at $485.50.

A half-cent gain in the Canadian dollar weighed on the canola market.

The big moves in the May contact looked like perhaps someone was in a short squeeze, following the expiry of May options on Friday.

The delivery period for the May contract begins Thursday.

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The more general issue moving markets was the concern over delayed seeding because of wet, cool weather from the Midwest up to the Canadian Prairies.

Also, the deteriorating condition of the U.S. hard red winter crop was in the news as the annual Wheat Quality Council Tour began today.

On the other hand, recent rain in dry parts of Australia and Europe has improved prospects for crops there.

Soybeans rose on the continuing concern about tight old crop supplies in the U.S. The July soybean contract closed above $15 a bushel.

Corn rose on planting delays and on strong cash market demand.

If planting delays continue in the Midwest, talk will start about the potential for farmers to switch some acres to shorter season soybeans from long growing season corn.

As stated, the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop continues to deteriorate. The weekly crop ratings in the hard wheat states, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska generally worsened in the USDA report issued Monday. Kansas saw its poor to very poor percent increase to 37 percent from 32 percent the previous week.

The annual Wheat Quality Council Tour of hard red winter wheat began today. The tour will release a crop forecast on May 1. Early news from the tour today showed yield potential is lower than it was in last year’s tour.

But crops in other regions, including Europe and Australia, got welcome rain recently.

U.S. spring wheat seeding was at 18 percent complete as of Sunday, within the expected range of 17 to 20 percent, but behind the five-year average of 30 percent.

North Dakota had only three percent planted, down from the average of 19 percent.

U.S. corn was 19 percent planted, lagging the average pace of 28 percent and traders’ average expectation of 21 percent.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

 

Canola May 2014       471.90       -10.60       -2.20%

Canola Jul 2014       477.20       +0.20       +0.04%

Canola Nov 2014       484.50       -0.20       -0.04%

Canola Jan 2015       490.70       -0.10       -0.02%

Canola Mar 2015       495.90       -0.30       -0.06%

 

Milling Wheat May 2014       230.00       +3.00       +1.32%

Milling Wheat Jul 2014       233.00       +7.00       +3.10%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014       234.00       +6.00       +2.63%

 

Durum Wheat May 2014       247.00       -3.00       -1.20%

Durum Wheat Jul 2014       247.00       -3.00       -1.20%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014       242.00       -5.00       -2.02%

 

Barley May 2014       139.50       unch       0.00%

Barley Jul 2014       140.50       unch       0.00%

Barley Oct 2014       140.50       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 2014       1524       +15.75       +1.04%

Soybeans Jul 2014       1517.25       +17.25       +1.15%

Soybeans Aug 2014       1443       +16.5       +1.16%

Soybeans Sep 2014       1313       +11.75       +0.90%

Soybeans Nov 2014       1248       +8.75       +0.71%

Soybeans Jan 2015       1252.75       +8.25       +0.66%

 

Soybean Meal May 2014       499.9       +3       +0.60%

Soybean Meal Jul 2014       491.2       +6.4       +1.32%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014       462.3       +6.5       +1.43%

 

Soybean Oil May 2014       42.77       +0.15       +0.35%

Soybean Oil Jul 2014       42.95       +0.12       +0.28%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014       42.82       +0.12       +0.28%

 

Corn May 2014       515.75       +8       +1.58%

Corn Jul 2014       521.5       +7.75       +1.51%

Corn Sep 2014       516.25       +6.25       +1.23%

Corn Dec 2014       512.25       +5.25       +1.04%

Corn Mar 2015       519.75       +4.75       +0.92%

 

Oats May 2014       422       -0.5       -0.12%

Oats Jul 2014       369.25       +6.75       +1.86%

Oats Sep 2014       352.25       -0.75       -0.21%

Oats Dec 2014       340.5       +1.25       +0.37%

Oats Mar 2015       340       +1.75       +0.52%

 

Wheat May 2014       708       +7.75       +1.11%

Wheat Jul 2014       716.5       +8       +1.13%

Wheat Sep 2014       724       +7.25       +1.01%

Wheat Dec 2014       736.5       +6.25       +0.86%

Wheat Mar 2015       748.25       +6       +0.81%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2014       747.25       -3       -0.40%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014       761.25       +7.75       +1.03%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014       769       +9       +1.18%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014       779       +8.75       +1.14%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       785.5       +8.25       +1.06%

 

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat May 2014       797.25       +14       +1.79%

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014       802.5       +16       +2.03%

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014       806.5       +15       +1.90%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014       812.75       +13       +1.63%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015       814.5       +12.75       +1.59%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 44 cents at $101.28 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.22 cents US, up from 90.64 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0963 Cdn.

In early, unofficial tallies —

Strong oil company shares helped lift the Toronto Stock Exchange composite, which closed up 52.21 points or 0.36 percent at 14,589.11.

Strong quarterly corporate profit reports and mergers and acquisitions activity in the pharmaceutical sector lifted Wall Street.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 91.86 points or 0.56 percent, to 16,540.6.

The S&P 500 gained 8.35 points or 0.45 percent, to 1,877.78.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 28.264 points or 0.69 percent, to 4,102.665.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is meeting today and tomorrow. Analysts expect it will again trim its bond buying program.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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