May canola recovering from last week’s meltdown

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Published: March 28, 2017

Canola futures bounced higher for a second day on Tuesday, repairing some of last week’s damage.
The gains were mostly in old crop months where the decline last week was also the most serious.
There are ideas that last week’s meltdown was overdone, considering the strong pace of exports and domestic crush, as well as ideas that ending stocks will be tight.
Also, the lower price could have brought out the bargain hunters.
May canola closed up $7 at $495.70 per tonne and new crop November was up 80 cents at $486.20.

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New crop is limited by ideas that there will be large canola acreage this spring.
The basis has narrowed in the last few days since the futures fell last week.
The ICE Futures Canada benchmark May basis bid as of Monday was -$17.70 compared to -$24.13 a week ago.
US MARKETS
Markets continued to adjust in advance of Friday’s USDA planting intentions report and quarterly crop stocks update.
Also, rain has begun in the U.S. Plains and Midwest and it weighed down markets. The largest accumulation in hard red winter wheat country is expected on Wednesday.
Nevertheless, corn and wheat edged slightly higher today on bargain buying after recent losses.
Soybeans were mixed.
India brought back a 10 percent import tax on wheat to try to limit competition for its own large crop this year. It also put a 10 percent duty on pigeon peas, but nothing yet on field peas or lentils.
The pulse industry expects India will grant a short term extension on its fumigation requirements.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Crude oil prices rose as Libyan oil supplies were disrupted by fighting in that country. Also officials said OPEC might extend its production cuts deal to the end of the year.
The strong oil price helped lift the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
U.S. stock markets rose after several days of declines.
A report today said American consumer confidence in March jumped to a more than 16-year high amid growing labour market optimism.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 64 cents to US$48.37 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.70 cents, up from 74.38 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3387.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 92.35 points, or 0.60 percent, closing at 15,598.57.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 150.8 points, or 0.73 percent, to 20,701.78, the S&P 500 gained 17 points, or 0.73 percent, to 2,358.59 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 34.77 points, or 0.60 percent, to 5,875.14.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2017 495.70 +7.00 +1.43%
Canola Jul 2017 499.70 +5.60 +1.13%
Canola Nov 2017 486.20 +0.80 +0.16%
Canola Jan 2018 491.50 +0.70 +0.14%
Canola Mar 2018 495.70 +0.20 +0.04%

Milling Wheat May 2017 231.00 +1.00 +0.43%
Milling Wheat Jul 2017 231.00 +1.00 +0.43%
Milling Wheat Oct 2017 226.00 +1.00 +0.44%

Durum Wheat May 2017 281.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2017 280.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2017 268.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2017 137.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans May 2017 972.00 +0.50 +0.05%
Soybeans Jul 2017 982.25 +0.50 +0.05%
Soybeans Aug 2017 984.25 +0.50 +0.05%
Soybeans Sep 2017 977.00 +0.50 +0.05%
Soybeans Nov 2017 972.25 +1.25 +0.13%

Soybeans Jan 2018 977.50 +1.00 +0.10%

Soybean Meal May 2017 315.30 unch 0.00%
Soybean Meal Jul 2017 318.80 +0.20 +0.06%
Soybean Meal Aug 2017 319.30 unch 0.00%

Soybean Oil May 2017 32.47 +0.18 +0.56%
Soybean Oil Jul 2017 32.74 +0.19 +0.58%
Soybean Oil Aug 2017 32.81 +0.18 +0.55%

Corn May 2017 357.75 +2.00 +0.56%
Corn Jul 2017 365.50 +2.00 +0.55%
Corn Sep 2017 373.25 +2.00 +0.54%
Corn Dec 2017 381.75 +1.75 +0.46%
Corn Mar 2018 391.00 +1.25 +0.32%

Oats May 2017 235.00 -5.50 -2.29%
Oats Jul 2017 225.75 -4.75 -2.06%
Oats Sep 2017 223.00 -3.50 -1.55%
Oats Dec 2017 223.25 -4.00 -1.76%
Oats Mar 2018 233.00 unch 0.00%

Wheat May 2017 424.50 +3.75 +0.89%
Wheat Jul 2017 437.50 +2.75 +0.63%
Wheat Sep 2017 452.50 +2.50 +0.56%
Wheat Dec 2017 472.50 +2.75 +0.59%
Wheat Mar 2018 487.25 +3.00 +0.62%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2017 535.00 +2.00 +0.38%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 542.00 +2.25 +0.42%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 549.00 +2.50 +0.46%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 558.25 +2.00 +0.36%
Spring Wheat Mar 2018 568.50 +2.00 +0.35%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 424.00 +2.75 +0.65%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 437.00 +2.75 +0.63%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 452.00 +2.75 +0.61%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 474.00 +2.50 +0.53%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 489.75 +2.50 +0.51%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 120.78 -0.30 -0.25%
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 111.60 +0.15 +0.13%
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 107.12 +0.34 +0.32%

Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017 132.35 +0.20 +0.15%
Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 132.95 -0.15 -0.11%
Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 131.60 +0.28 +0.21%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 65.10 -0.55 -0.84%
Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 69.40 -0.92 -1.31%
Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 72.45 -1.08 -1.47%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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