Canola futures gained slightly Friday with support from a slightly weaker loonie and slow farmer selling.
March canola gained $2.40 at $466.60 per tonne.
March options expired on Friday.
Most-active May canola rose 70 cents to $470.50 per tonne.
On the week, the March contract was almost unchanged, dipping just 80 cents or 0.2 percent.
The May contract fell $5.70 on the week.
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It was a good week for canola exports with the Canadian Grain commission saying that 389,100 tonnes were exported, up from 375,300 the week before.
Total exports to date at 5.276 million tonnes are up 18.8 percent over last year at the same time (An earlier version of this report had incorrect export data.)
The year to date export pace is well ahead of Agriculture Canada’s whole year forecast for a 3.7 percent increase
The canola crush for the week was 173,594 tonnes, up 7.1 percent from the week before.
The total crush to date is 4.446 million tonnes, up 12.6 percent.
If this export and crush pace continues, and if Statistics Canada is correct on its canola crop estimate of 17.2 million tonnes, then canola ending stocks will likely fall below the current forecast of 1.75 million tonnes.
While Canadian year end stocks of many crops will likely be fairly tight, the grain trade is fixated on large world stocks and the advancing record South American harvest.
“We’re still in a market that is psychologically focused on the current season,” Sebastien Poncelet of consultancy Agritel told Reuters.
“Crop risks for the next harvest, like in India or Ukraine, are not really making headlines right now.”
India is hot and dry, Ukraine’s wheat crop suffered from drought last fall and parts of Russia’s winter wheat crop are under ice.
USDA will predict U.S. spring sowings next week, but those numbers will be based on economist projections.
The acreage forecast based on farmer surveys is due in March.
U.S. markets closed the week mostly flat after modest gains earlier in the week on short covering.
Soybeans dipped slightly today, just 1 ½ cents to $8.78 ½ a bushel
For the week, front-month soybean futures rose 0.8 percent, their biggest weekly gain in seven weeks. Soymeal was up one percent and soyoil was down 1.3 percent.
Corn closed steady.
USDA released weekly grain export sales results today, with corn sales of more than one million tonnes, above analyst expectations. Wheat and soy sales in line with estimates.
Regulatory data released after the close of trading by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed speculative investors increasing their net short stake in corn futures, and trimming their net short in wheat and soybeans.
Chicago wheat futures closed lower on Friday after a choppy session, but still eked out a modest weekly gain, supported by fund short-covering, traders told Reuters.
Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures closed higher on Friday as warm and windy conditions in the southern Plains threatened to push some of the region’s wheat to break dormancy and lose some of its winter hardiness.
Minneapolis spring wheat followed Kansas higher.
For the week, Chicago March wheat rose 4 ¼ cents, or 0.9 percent, halting a two-week slide. Kansas March wheat rose 12 ¾ cents, or 2.9 percent and Minneapolis rose 8 ¼ cents, or 1.7 percent.
Light crude oil nearby futures today in New York closed down $1.13 at US$29.64 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US72.46 cents, down from 72.88 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3801.
The weaker oil price and poor December retail sales weighed on the Toronto stock market.
The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index dropped 118 points, or 0.9 percent, to 12,813.4.
Over the week it climbed by 3.5 percent.
American stock indexes were a little lower today, but for the week posted their best performance this year.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 23.08 points, or 0.14 percent, to 16,390.35, the S&P 500 lost 0.21 points, or 0.01 percent, to 1,917.62 and the Nasdaq Composite added 16.89 points, or 0.38 percent, to 4,504.43.
For the week, the Dow climbed 2.6 percent, the S&P 500 rose 3.8 percent and the Nasdaq climbed 2.8 percent.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2016 466.60 +2.40 +0.52%
Canola May 2016 470.50 +0.70 +0.15%
Canola Jul 2016 475.40 +1.50 +0.32%
Canola Nov 2016 475.90 +0.20 +0.04%
Canola Jan 2017 479.80 +0.60 +0.13%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016 229.00 +1.00 +0.44%
Milling Wheat May 2016 232.00 +1.00 +0.43%
Milling Wheat Jul 2016 236.00 +2.00 +0.85%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016 317.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2016 325.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2016 310.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2016 186.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2016 190.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2016 192.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2016 878.25 -1.5 -0.17%
Soybeans May 2016 880.75 -2 -0.23%
Soybeans Jul 2016 885.25 -2.25 -0.25%
Soybeans Aug 2016 886.75 -2.25 -0.25%
Soybeans Sep 2016 885.75 -2.5 -0.28%
Soybeans Nov 2016 888.5 -2 -0.22%
Soybean Meal Mar 2016 264.5 +1 +0.38%
Soybean Meal May 2016 266 +0.7 +0.26%
Soybean Meal Jul 2016 268.3 +0.7 +0.26%
Soybean Oil Mar 2016 31.39 -0.44 -1.38%
Soybean Oil May 2016 31.63 -0.43 -1.34%
Soybean Oil Jul 2016 31.86 -0.43 -1.33%
Corn Mar 2016 365.5 unch 0.00%
Corn May 2016 369.25 -0.5 -0.14%
Corn Jul 2016 373.75 unch 0.00%
Corn Sep 2016 378.75 unch 0.00%
Corn Dec 2016 386.5 unch 0.00%
Oats Mar 2016 192 -6.5 -3.27%
Oats May 2016 196 -4.75 -2.37%
Oats Jul 2016 204 -4.75 -2.28%
Oats Sep 2016 210.25 -3.75 -1.75%
Oats Dec 2016 209 -0.75 -0.36%
Wheat Mar 2016 461.75 -0.5 -0.11%
Wheat May 2016 466.75 -1.75 -0.37%
Wheat Jul 2016 474 -1.5 -0.32%
Wheat Sep 2016 484 -1.5 -0.31%
Wheat Dec 2016 498.25 -1.75 -0.35%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 493.25 +0.75 +0.15%
Spring Wheat May 2016 497.75 +3.25 +0.66%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 505.5 +3.75 +0.75%
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 515.5 +4 +0.78%
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 530.25 +3.5 +0.66%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 457 +3.75 +0.83%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 466.25 +3.25 +0.70%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 476.5 +3.25 +0.69%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 490.25 +3 +0.62%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 510.5 +2.75 +0.54%
