Grain marketers are anticipating a big increase in canola production when Agriculture Canada comes out with a new supply and demand outlook early next week.
They are forecasting a crop in the range of 15 to 15.5 million tonnes, said Dave Reimann, market analyst with Cargill’s Grain Marketing Services.
Agriculture Canada’s July 17 outlook calls for 14.6 million tonnes of production based on trend line yields of 33 bushels per acre.
Reimann said it is becoming clear that this year’s crop will surpass trend line yields barring an early frost. The trade believes yields will be in the 34 to 35 bushels per acre range.
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“With the weather that we’re seeing the trade is adjusting their yields up,” he said.
Corey Loessin, who farms near Radisson, Sask., expects his crop will shatter the farm’s typical 30 bu. per acre yield.
“There are some stands that should do better than 40 if they mature and the seeds fill in properly,” he said.
Weber Commodities Ltd. said the vast majority of farmers are expecting their canola crops will exceed the 33 bu. per acre average, which has some forecasters predicting as much as 16 million tonnes of canola production. Reimann said that number is possible if the weather holds.
But Saskatchewan’s crop is two weeks behind normal development almost province-wide, so frost is a mounting risk factor.
Storage could become an issue on the farm and at grain elevators and crushers if growers manage to harvest 15 to 16 million tonnes of canola.
Tyler Russell, Cargill’s national grain marketing manager, said farmers need to start planning with their local elevator or crusher if they intend to deliver straight off the combine because many other growers will be doing the same thing because $10 canola is still attractive.
“If you absolutely need to be moving some stuff to get cash you need to make sure that you make those arrangements,” he said.
