Market Wrap: Corn, soybean, canola all fall on bearish USDA report

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Published: November 9, 2017

Corn futures wound up almost two percent lower and soybeans were down 1.35 percent Thursday following a USDA report that raised U.S. corn yield more than expected and did not cut the soybean yield forecast.

Canola fell about one percent, dragged down by soybeans and by the rising loonie, which has gained about US0.6 cent so far this week.

Wheat futures managed a small gain.

The USDA raised its corn yield by 3.6 bushels to 175.4 bu. per acre, a new record.

Total corn production was 14.578 billion bu. up from 14.28 billion last month. Corn ending stocks were pegged at 2.487 billion bu., up from 2.340 billion last month.

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The soybean yield estimate stayed the same at 49.5 bu. per acre, when the trade expected a decrease.

Total soybean production was pegged at 4.425 billion bu, down slightly from 4.431 billion last month.

Soybean ending stocks were 425 million bu., down from 430 million last month.

The adage is that big crops get bigger and so it would not be surprising for the USDA to raise its corn production estimate in future reports.

In a separate weekly report, the USDA said export sales of U.S. wheat in the latest week were 781,800 tonnes, above a range of trade estimates for 350,000 to 550,000 tonnes.

Russia’s SovEcon agriculture consultancy raised its forecast for Russia’s 2017 wheat crop to a record 83.9 million tonnes, from 82.9 million previously.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

U.S. stock markets were down, reacting negatively to signs that a federal tax cut might take more time to work out.

The Senate on Thursday was expected to unveil a tax cut bill that differs significantly from one detailed last week in the House, complicating matters for the Trump administration.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 36 cents at US$57.17 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US78.88 cents, up from 78.57 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2677.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite closed down 23.26 points or 0.14 percent at 16,082.09.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.43 percent to end at 23,461.94, while the S&P 500 declined 0.38 percent to 2,584.62.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.58 percent to 6,750.05.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 17     513.00s     -5.30     -1.02%

Canola Jan 18     515.50s     -5.30     -1.02%

Canola Mar 18     522.40s     -5.50     -1.04%

Canola May 18     526.50s     -6.00     -1.13%

Canola Jul 18     528.80s     -6.80     -1.27%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 17     975-2s     -12-6     -1.29%

Soybeans Jan 18     985-0s     -13-4     -1.35%

Soybeans Mar 18     996-0s     -13-4     -1.34%

Soybeans May 18     1005-0s     -13-0     -1.28%

Soybeans Jul 18    1013-4s     -12-6     -1.24%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 17     311.8s     -3.4     -1.08%

Soybean Meal Jan 18     313.9s     -3.5     -1.10%

Soybean Meal Mar 18     317.3s     -3.6     -1.12%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 17     35.14s     -0.23     -0.65%

Soybean Oil Jan 18     35.29s     -0.24     -0.68%

Soybean Oil Mar 18     35.51s     -0.24     -0.67%

 

Corn Dec 17     341-4s     -6-6     -1.94%

Corn Mar 18     354-6s     -6-4     -1.80%

Corn May 18     363-4s     -6-2     -1.69%

Corn Jul 18     371-4s     -6-0     -1.59%

Corn Sep 18     378-2s     -6-2     -1.63%

 

Oats Dec 17     273-0s     +3-4     +1.30%

Oats Mar 18     279-2s     +3-4     +1.27%

Oats May 18     284-2s     +5-4     +1.97%

Oats Jul 18     284-2s     +5-0     +1.79%

Oats Sep 18     285-4s     +6-2     +2.24%

 

Wheat Dec 17     429-0s     +2-2     +0.53%

Wheat Mar 18     445-0s     +1-2     +0.28%

Wheat May 18     456-0s     unch     unch

Wheat Jul 18     469-0s     -0-4     -0.11%

Wheat Sep 18     483-6s     -1-0     -0.21%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 17     648-0s     +4-4     +0.70%

Spring Wheat Mar 18     658-0s     +3-4     +0.53%

Spring Wheat May 18     662-6s     +2-4     +0.38%

Spring Wheat Jul 18     661-2s     +0-6     +0.11%

Spring Wheat Sep 18     646-6s     +2-4     +0.39%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17     429-0s     +1-4     +0.35%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18     446-0s     +1-0     +0.22%

Hard Red Wheat May 18     458-2s     +0-2     +0.05%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18     473-4s     -0-4     -0.11%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18     489-2s     -0-6     -0.15%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Dec 17     122.475s     -0.450     -0.37%

Live Cattle Feb 18     128.525s     -0.050     -0.04%

Live Cattle Apr 18     128.750s     +0.375     +0.29%

 

Feeder Cattle Nov 17     158.475s    +1.150     +0.73%

Feeder Cattle Jan 18     157.850s     +0.950     +0.61%

Feeder Cattle Mar 18     155.400s     +0.900     +0.58%

 

Lean Hogs Dec 17     63.175s     -0.375     -0.59%

Lean Hogs Feb 18     70.225s     +0.475     +0.68%

Lean Hogs Apr 18     74.025s     +0.075     +0.10%

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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