Market wrap: canola falls $9.70 on the week

Crop futures prices were again under pressure Friday from expectations of huge South American harvests.
This week the USDA lifted its forecast for Brazil’s crop to 108 million tonnes from 104 million.
It lifted the forecast for global year end soybean stocks by about 2.5 million tonnes to 82.8 million tonnes and raised corn stocks about three million to 220.56 million.
Today, May canola closed at $522.90, down $3.60 or 0.68 percent.
New crop November closed at $502.70, down $3.20 or 0.63 percent.
For the week, May canola fell $9.70 per tonne and November fell $9.60.

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CLICK HERE TO WATCH THIS WEEK’S CROP MARKET ROUNDUP
Falling oil prices, down about nine percent this week, caused big investment funds to pull money from commodities in general and that money flow has also been negative for crop futures.
Big funds has piled into commodities earlier this year on the idea that President Donald Trump’s promises to cut taxes and increase infrastructure spending would spark inflation and lift commodities, so markets are now vulnerable to long liquidation.

WEATHER

The blizzard in the eastern Prairies earlier this week is expected to delay the start of field week this month, including the harvest of outstanding crop left from last fall.
Snow is expected today and Saturday in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan with more than 10 centimetres of accumulation around Medicine Hat and Swift Current.
Frosty weather is expected to reach south into the U.S. Midwest next week, presenting a danger to exposed soft winter wheat in about 10 percent of the growing region.

CRUSH

The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 173,363 tonnes of canola in the week ending March 8, down 5.6 percent from the week before. That represented only 81 percent of capacity, down from the average for the year of almost 90 percent. Still, the crush for the year at 5.62 million tonnes is 13.7 percent ahead of last year’s 4.94 million.

EXPORTS

Canadian grain exports moved back to a more normal level last week.
Two weeks ago the ports moved out a huge amount of grain to catch up after a poor performance the previous week because of challenging weather conditions.
For canola, the most recent data to March 5 from the Canadian Grain Commission shows bulk movement at 190,700 tonnes, down from 332,400 tonnes the week before.
The total for the first 31 weeks of the crop year is 6.44 million tonnes, up from 5.71 million at the same point the year before.
Wheat movement was a respectable 258,100 tonnes after 362,300 the week before.
The total to date is 7.87 million tonnes, almost two million behind last year.
There were 12 vessels cleared from Vancouver, and three from Prince Rupert.
The line up at Vancouver decreased to 29 vessels, down from 30 the week before.
At Prince Rupert the line up rose to eight from six the week before.

CANADIAN DOLLAR
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.33 cents, up from 74.00 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3453.
Friday’s gains came from the monthly employment statistics that showed the economy created 15,300 jobs, much higher than the expectation for just 2,500.
The unemployment rate fell to 6.6 percent, down 0.2 percentage points and there was good progress in hiring for full-time jobs.
The report somewhat lifted the cloud over the economy, which is troubled by uncertainties such as U.S. trade policy and crude oil prices.

It lifted the potential for a Bank of Canada interest rate increase sometime this year.
In the U.S. the market fully expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week, following a strong U.S. employment report today. It said 235,000 jobs were added in February and unemployment dropped to 4.7 percent.

CRUDE OIL
Oil futures again fell, settling down about nine percent this week, as production increases in non-OPEC appear to be offsetting the cuts that OPEC is making. Saudi officials are complaining that American production is benefiting from the cuts it and other OPEC members have made to try to lift crude prices.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York settled down 79 cents to US$48.49 per barrel on Friday.

STOCKS
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index unofficially closed up 9.84 points, or 0.06 percent, at 15,506.68.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 44.79 points, or 0.21 percent, to 20,902.98. The S&P 500 gained 7.73 points, or 0.33 percent, to 2,372.6 and the Nasdaq Composite added 22.92 points, or 0.39 percent, to 5,861.73.
For the week, the TSX composite lost 0.7 percent, the Dow Jones fell 0.5 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq fell 0.2 percent.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2017 522.90 -3.60 -0.68%
Canola Jul 2017 525.60 -3.30 -0.62%
Canola Nov 2017 502.70 -3.20 -0.63%
Canola Jan 2018 508.20 -3.40 -0.66%
Canola Mar 2018 512.50 -3.40 -0.66%

Milling Wheat May 2017 235.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Jul 2017 237.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2017 229.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2017 282.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2017 281.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2017 268.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2017 137.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2017 996.25 -4.00 -0.40%
Soybeans May 2017 1006.50 -4.50 -0.45%
Soybeans Jul 2017 1016.25 -4.25 -0.42%
Soybeans Aug 2017 1017.25 -4.25 -0.42%
Soybeans Sep 2017 1006.00 -4.00 -0.40%
Soybeans Nov 2017 999.75 -4.75 -0.47%

Soybean Meal Mar 2017 324.60 +0.50 +0.15%
Soybean Meal May 2017 328.70 +0.20 +0.06%
Soybean Meal Jul 2017 332.10 +0.20 +0.06%

Soybean Oil Mar 2017 32.44 -0.43 -1.31%
Soybean Oil May 2017 32.68 -0.43 -1.30%
Soybean Oil Jul 2017 32.95 -0.43 -1.29%

Corn Mar 2017 358.00 -1.75 -0.49%
Corn May 2017 364.25 -2.75 -0.75%
Corn Jul 2017 372.00 -2.50 -0.67%
Corn Sep 2017 379.25 -2.00 -0.52%
Corn Dec 2017 386.50 -1.75 -0.45%

Oats Mar 2017 269.75 unch 0.00%
Oats May 2017 246.25 +5.75 +2.39%

Oats Jul 2017 238.75 +5.75 +2.47%
Oats Sep 2017 235.25 unch 0.00%
Oats Dec 2017 234.00 +2.50 +1.08%

Wheat Mar 2017 422.75 -3.25 -0.76%
Wheat May 2017 440.50 -3.50 -0.79%
Wheat Jul 2017 456.25 -3.50 -0.76%
Wheat Sep 2017 471.00 -3.75 -0.79%
Wheat Dec 2017 488.75 -3.75 -0.76%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 536.00 +1.25 +0.23%
Spring Wheat May 2017 538.50 -0.25 -0.05%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 545.75 -0.50 -0.09%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 552.25 -0.50 -0.09%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 561.75 -0.25 -0.04%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 445.25 -8.00 -1.77%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 455.50 -7.00 -1.51%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 467.50 -6.75 -1.42%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 482.50 -6.25 -1.28%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 502.00 -6.00 -1.18%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 117.60 +1.10 +0.94%
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 107.50 +0.78 +0.73%
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 103.05 +0.65 +0.63%

Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017 127.48 +1.33 +1.05%
Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 126.68 +2.06 +1.65%
Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 125.78 +1.71 +1.38%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 68.18 +0.11 +0.16%
Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 72.90 -0.17 -0.23%
Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 76.90 -0.02 -0.03%