Market increases focus on planting speculation

May and July canola futures edged higher on speculative buying interest, end user demand and a weaker loonie.

March closed a few pennies lower.

Reuters released a Canadian seeding survey of 12 analysts.

Forecasts for canola acreage ranged 19.3 million acres to 21 million with an average of 19.9 million.

Last year’s seeded area was 20.325 million.

See the full story here: Canadian farmers seen sowing slightly less canola, more durum.

A Louis Dreyfus official at the Grain World conference in Winnipeg today forecast that 2015-16 year end canola stocks could fall to less than a million tonnes. Agriculture Canada forecasts 2015-16 year end stocks at 1.4 million tonnes.

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U.S. corn and Chicago wheat fell today on a strong U.S. dollar that weighed on that country’s ability to export.

May soybeans ended only slightly down after bouncing from session lows. March was unchanged.

The fall in soybeans was limited by competition between crushers and exporters for available supply.

Soy oil fell about one percent.

Weekly U.S. soy export inspections were below a million tonnes for the first time since early October

Minneapolis wheat edged higher, with support from Canadian outlooks for reduced spring wheat plantings. AgriTrend today suggested Canadian non-durum wheat would be down six percent this spring.

The Reuters seeding survey for spring wheat ranged 16 million to 18.1 million to average 17.3 million. In 2014 farmers seeded 17.41 million.

However, Chicago and Kansas wheat edged lower as the U.S. is overpriced relative to other sources of wheat.

North African buyers last week turned to the European Union and Romania for supply.

“The U.S. wheat market could break down to below $5 this week as it is facing stiff competition from suppliers in Europe, mainly France,” said Kaname Gokon, general manager of research at brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo.

Morocco is on course to harvest a record cereal crop of more than 10 million tonnes this year after favourable rainfall so far during the growing season, a farm ministry official told Reuters.

The U.S. dollar rose to its highest level in more than a week after Greece late Friday struck a four-month bailout deal with euro zone finance ministers to avoid default.

Corn was also a bit lower.

“Export demand has been reasonable but the ethanol grind has been down. So overall demand, while good, hasn’t been extremely robust,” Dennis Collins, market analyst at Chicago advisory Trilateral, told Reuters.

USDA’s outlook conference held in Washington, D.C., last week reminded traders that U.S. grain and oilseeds stocks will be plentiful in the coming year.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.36 to US$49.45 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US79.49 cents, down from US79.96 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2580.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended 28.02 points, or 0.18 percent, higher at 15,200.26

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 23.6 points, or 0.13 percent, to 18,116.84, the S&P 500 lost 0.64 points, or 0.03 percent, to 2,109.66 and the Nasdaq Composite added 5.01 points, or 0.1 percent, to 4,960.97.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2015 469.70 -0.40 -0.09%

Canola May 2015 467.50 +1.40 +0.30%

Canola Jul 2015 462.10 +2.20 +0.48%

Canola Nov 2015 450.90 +2.30 +0.51%

Canola Jan 2016 452.50 +2.30 +0.51%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015 221.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat May 2015 230.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015 233.00 +1.00 +0.43%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015 333.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015 323.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015 313.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2015 184.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2015 186.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2015 188.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2015 999.25 unch 0.00%

Soybeans May 2015 1001.5 -0.75 -0.07%

Soybeans Jul 2015 1006 -0.75 -0.07%

Soybeans Aug 2015 1005.25 -0.5 -0.05%

Soybeans Sep 2015 991 -0.25 -0.03%

Soybeans Nov 2015 979.75 -0.25 -0.03%

Soybean Meal Mar 2015 348.3 +0.8 +0.23%

Soybean Meal May 2015 338.5 -0.2 -0.06%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015 335.4 -0.2 -0.06%

Soybean Oil Mar 2015 31.14 -0.34 -1.08%

Soybean Oil May 2015 31.33 -0.34 -1.07%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015 31.54 -0.32 -1.00%

Corn Mar 2015 378.75 -6.5 -1.69%

Corn May 2015 386.75 -6.25 -1.59%

Corn Jul 2015 394.5 -6 -1.50%

Corn Sep 2015 401.75 -5.75 -1.41%

Corn Dec 2015 410.5 -5.75 -1.38%

Oats Mar 2015 272 -1.5 -0.55%

Oats May 2015 272 -1.5 -0.55%

Oats Jul 2015 276.5 -0.25 -0.09%

Oats Sep 2015 284.5 +1 +0.35%

Oats Dec 2015 286.5 +0.75 +0.26%

Wheat Mar 2015 505.75 -4.5 -0.88%

Wheat May 2015 504 -3 -0.59%

Wheat Jul 2015 508.75 -2.75 -0.54%

Wheat Sep 2015 517.25 -2.5 -0.48%

Wheat Dec 2015 530 -1.75 -0.33%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 567.75 +1 +0.18%

Spring Wheat May 2015 568 +1 +0.18%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 572.5 +0.75 +0.13%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015 579.25 +1.5 +0.26%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015 591.25 +2 +0.34%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 531.25 -2 -0.38%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015 536 -2.25 -0.42%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 543 -2.75 -0.50%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 555.5 -2.5 -0.45%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 570.25 -2.25 -0.39%

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