Canola closed another $1 lower Thursday after being a little higher in morning trade.
Early trade was based on thoughts that canola is undervalued compared to other oilseeds and on end user buying. Pressure came from commercial hedges and on technical selling
The loonie continued its slide, down 0.4 cent at noon but that didn’t stop the bleeding.
Canola is performing worse than other members of the oilseed complex. March canola dropped 14.35 percent between the open Dec. 2 and the close today.
In the same period March soybeans fell 3.3 percent and March soy oil fell 7.21 percent.
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The logistical problems moving the record large crop are expected to leave the canola market with burdensome ending stocks.
Hopefully there will be improvements in the rail and port system in the future. Today, the Canola Council of Canada set a new production goal of 26 million tonnes by 2025.
Nearby soybean contracts were up a bit on firm cash values and brisk exports to China. Deferred months closed down on expectations that Friday’s USDA reports will be bearish for corn and for 2014-15 soybeans. Follow our instant coverage of the USDA report on our twitter feeds @darcemcmillan and @westernproducer. We will post stories on the report at Producer.com.
Brazil’s government today nudged up its forecast of this year’s soybean crop to 90.33 million tonnes, from 90.03 million in the last forecast. It pegged the corn crop at 78.97 million tonnes, up from 78.78 million.
Things are also going well for soybeans in Argentina.
A climate consultant to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange told Reuters that the rest of January and February are expected to get continuing rain.
The heat in December in Argentina likely hurt yield potential in corn, which develops earlier than soybeans, but the oilseed should have avoided damage.
USDA reported today that another 100,000 tonnes of American corn rejected by China has been resold to other Asian markets. Countries such as South Korea and Japan have been snapping up the shipments that are often offered at a discount.
USDA today said weekly corn export sales were below the range of analysts’ expectations.
Oats made a big move up today with March rising 18.25 cents to $3.9475 per bushel and May closing up 10.75 cents at $3.4675. At this rate, oats might become more expensive than corn soon. The futures price reflects the transportation issues.
The Canadian dollar fell to the lowest level since 2009 on several signs that the economy is struggling and will need an interest rate cut to spark growth.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jan 2014 420.10 -1.00 -0.24%
Canola Mar 2014 429.10 -1.00 -0.23%
Canola May 2014 438.20 -0.80 -0.18%
Canola Jul 2014 446.70 -0.50 -0.11%
Canola Nov 2014 460.50 -0.40 -0.09%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 182.00 +1.00 +0.55%
Milling Wheat May 2014 187.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 190.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 243.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 247.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 248.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 146.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 148.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 148.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jan 2014 1296.25 -4.5 -0.35%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1273.75 +4.5 +0.35%
Soybeans May 2014 1255 +4.5 +0.36%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1240.5 +3.5 +0.28%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1204.5 -0.5 -0.04%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1142.5 -2 -0.17%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 433 +2.4 +0.56%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 414.3 +1.8 +0.44%
Soybean Meal May 2014 402.6 +0.5 +0.12%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 37.74 +0.31 +0.83%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 37.96 +0.28 +0.74%
Soybean Oil May 2014 38.28 +0.27 +0.71%
Corn Mar 2014 412 -5 -1.20%
Corn May 2014 420.25 -5 -1.18%
Corn Jul 2014 427.75 -4.75 -1.10%
Corn Sep 2014 434.25 -4.75 -1.08%
Corn Dec 2014 441.25 -4.75 -1.07%
Oats Mar 2014 394.75 +18.25 +4.85%
Oats May 2014 346.75 +10.75 +3.20%
Oats Jul 2014 327.75 +5.75 +1.79%
Oats Sep 2014 309.75 -4.25 -1.35%
Oats Dec 2014 303.75 +0.25 +0.08%
Wheat Mar 2014 584.25 -4.5 -0.76%
Wheat May 2014 589.5 -5 -0.84%
Wheat Jul 2014 594.25 -4.25 -0.71%
Wheat Sep 2014 604 -4.25 -0.70%
Wheat Dec 2014 617.75 -3.75 -0.60%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 629.25 +2.25 +0.36%
Spring Wheat May 2014 629.25 unch 0.00%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 637.25 +0.25 +0.04%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 644.75 -1 -0.15%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 659 -1.25 -0.19%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 639 +2 +0.31%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 636 -0.25 -0.04%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 633 -1.75 -0.28%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 645 -1.25 -0.19%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 659.25 -0.5 -0.08%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 67 cents at $91.66 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 92.16 cents US, down from 92.56 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0851 Cdn.
In early unofficial tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite rose 14.79 points or 0.11 percent to 13,629.41.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 17.98 points or 0.11 percent, to end at 16,444.76.
The S&P 500 gained 0.63 of a point or 0.03 percent, to finish at 1,838.12.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 9.417 points or 0.23 percent, to close at 4,156.194.
