Oilseed markets were again on the defense Tuesday, pressured by Monday’s USDA stocks report that found soybean stocks as of Sept. 1 were more than expected.
Canola and soybeans were also pressured by harvest progress. Canola did not fall as much as soybeans, possibly because of the recent harvest delays due to rain in parts of the Prairies. A half-cent drop in the loonie also supported canola.
However, the expectation of a record shattering canola crop weighs on the canola futures market. We will get Statistics Canada’s forecast of production when it reports on Friday.
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November canola closed at $477, down $4.30 or 0.89 percent. November soybeans fell 1.15 percent and soy oil fell slightly more than two percent.
Wheat was again the bright spot for farmers with all three wheat markets making gains, with Minneapolis climbing the most.
Strong global demand and problems with wheat quality are supporting wheat prices, particularly higher protein values.
Also, it is becoming clearer that persistent rain in Ukraine and parts of Russia is delaying winter wheat seeding, leading to projections of significant acreage going unseeded.
Today Ukraine’s agriculture minister said he expected 20 percent of fall grains would not be seeded. Late last week the head of the country’s farm lobby painted a more dire outlook of up to 60 percent not seeded. Even if farmers seed more than expected in October, it will be past the ideal seeding date and emergence and winter kill could become major problems.
If it goes badly, it would provide strong support to 2014-05 prices.
Corn fell today, also still feeling the weight of the USDA report on Monday that pegged Sept. 1 corn stocks higher than expected.
Brazil is seeding its next soybean crop. It had been dry in some parts but recent rain is causing farmers to pick up the pace of seeding. Analysts expect Brazil, Argentina and the rest of South America will seed a record acreage to soybeans. If they have good weather, that could keep pressure on oilseed prices through winter.
That could create the following potential scenario:
• Oilseeds under pressure through October during the Canadian and American harvests
• A window for a post harvest rally if demand is good
• Then more downward pressure early in the new year if South American prospects look good. On the other hand, if the South American growing season proves difficult, then there might be opportunities for oilseed rallies.
The budget battle in the United States is causing a partial shutdown of U.S. government operations. For agriculture a major factor is the loss of USDA reporting. Lack of daily USDA reports will have an immediate effect on livestock futures reports. If the shutdown lingers, the Monday crop progress report will be cancelled and a major monthly supply and demand report scheduled for Oct. 11 could be delayed.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 13 477.4 -4.30 -0.89%
Canola Jan 14 486.9 -4.10 -0.84%
Canola Mar 14 493.7 -4.50 -0.90%
Canola May 14 500 -4.60 -0.91%
Canola Jul 14 505.3 -5.00 -0.98%
Milling Wheat Oct 13 237 +1.00 +0.42%
Milling Wheat Dec 13 240 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 14 245 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 13 243 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 13 247 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 14 253 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 13 149 +0.70 +0.47%
Barley Dec 13 152 +0.70 +0.46%
Barley Mar 14 154 +0.70 +0.46%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 13 1268 -14.75 -1.15%
Soybeans Jan 14 1270 -15 -1.17%
Soybeans Mar 14 1253 -14 -1.10%
Soybeans May 14 1233.75 -14.75 -1.18%
Soybeans Jul 14 1229 -12.75 -1.03%
Soybean Meal Oct 13 408.5 -1.4 -0.34%
Soybean Meal Dec 13 403.3 -2.1 -0.52%
Soybean Meal Jan 14 400.9 -2.4 -0.60%
Soybean Oil Oct 13 40.01 -0.82 -2.01%
Soybean Oil Dec 13 40.27 -0.83 -2.02%
Soybean Oil Jan 14 40.57 -0.83 -2.00%
Corn Dec 13 439 -2.50 -0.57%
Corn Mar 14 451.75 -2.75 -0.61%
Corn May 14 459.75 -2.50 -0.54%
Corn Jul 14 466.5 -2.50 -0.53%
Corn Sep 14 472.25 -1.50 -0.32%
Oats Dec 13 315 -4.25 -1.33%
Oats Mar 14 302.5 -3.50 -1.14%
Oats May 14 301.75 -1 -0.33%
Oats Jul 14 296.5 -1.25 -0.42%
Oats Sep 14 301.5 -1.25 -0.41%
Wheat Dec 13 681.25 +2.75 +0.41%
Wheat Mar 14 689.5 +2.50 +0.36%
Wheat May 14 692.5 +2.75 +0.40%
Wheat Jul 14 675.75 -1.25 -0.18%
Wheat Sep 14 681 -0.50 -0.07%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 13 736.75 +8 +1.10%
Spring Wheat Mar 14 744.5 +6.50 +0.88%
Spring Wheat May 14 747 +6 +0.81%
Spring Wheat Jul 14 750.75 +5.25 +0.70%
Spring Wheat Sep 14 751.5 +5 +0.67%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 13 745 +5.50 +0.74%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 14 742.75 +2.50 +0.34%
KCBT Red Wheat May 14 740.5 +1.25 +0.17%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 14 720 +0.75 +0.10%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 14 727.75 +2.75 +0.38%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 29 cents at $102.04 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.78 cents US, down from 97.23 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0333 Cdn.
Investors believe the U.S. government partial shutdown will be short lived. They focused on other issues and stock markets closed up.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended up 60.25 points, or 0.47 percent, at 12,847.44.
The Dow Jones industrial average was up 62.29 points, or 0.41 percent, at 15,191.96.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 13.47 points, or 0.80 percent, at 1,695.02.
The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 46.50 points, or 1.23 percent, at 3,817.98.
