CHICAGO (Reuters) — Crop forecaster Lanworth predicted U.S. winter wheat production will rise in the 2015-16 marketing year as yields rebound, despite a four percent year-on-year drop in planted acreage.
Lanworth, a unit of Thomson Reuters, estimated U.S. 2015-16 winter wheat plantings at 40.790 million acres, down from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 2014-15 figure of 42.4 million. Lanworth attributed the decline to planting delays and low profitability of wheat relative to other crops.
By class, Lanworth put seedings at 30.1 million acres for hard red winter wheat, 7.2 million acres for soft red winter and 3.4 million acres for white winter wheat.
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The firm projected 2015-16 winter wheat production at 1.570 billion bushels, up from 1.378 billion in the 2014-15 crop year, when drought in the southern U.S. Plains wheat belt slashed yields.
The USDA is scheduled to release its first estimate of U.S. 2015-16 winter wheat seedings on Jan. 12.
Lanworth lowered its estimate of U.S. 2014-15 corn production and yield, citing reduced reported yields in Iowa and Minnesota. The firm put the corn yield at 174.7 bushels per acre, down from 175.7 in its Nov. 5 report.
The firm pared its corn production estimate to 14.585 billion bushels, from 14.667 billion previously.
For soybeans, Lanworth left its yield estimate unchanged at 47.8 bpa and pegged production at 3.94 billion bushels.
The USDA currently estimates U.S. 2014-15 corn production at a record-high 14.4 billion bushels with an average yield of 173.4 bpa, and soybean production at a record-high 3.958 billion bushels with a yield of 47.5 bpa.
For South America, where farmers are planting the 2014-15 corn and soybean crops, Lanworth trimmed its forecast of Argentine 2014-15 corn production to 29.1 million tonnes, from 29.3 million on Nov. 5. The firm left its forecast of Brazilian corn production unchanged at 75.4 million tonnes.
For soybeans, Lanworth left its projection of Brazil’s 2014-15 crop unchanged at 98 million tonnes and kept its Argentine soy forecast at 58.6 million tonnes.
