Canadian farmers continue to hold tightly to old crop canola stocks, helping spark a more than two percent rally in the July contract Thursday.
Concerns about slow crop development, cool weather and the potential for harvest problems are causing farmers to keep grain in the bin.
The impact on the new crop November contact is less pronounced. November rose only $1.70 per tonne and the premium of July over November widened to $22.90 per tonne.
Traders were also positioning ahead of Friday’s Statistics Canada seeded acreage survey. We’ll cover the report at Producer.com.
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Alberta crop conditions improve: report
Varied precipitation and warm temperatures were generally beneficial for crop development across Alberta during the week ended July 8, according to the latest provincial crop report released July 11.
Saskatchewan Agriculture’s crop report today said that 73 percent of the canola crop in the province is in good to excellent condition while 82 percent of the spring wheat is good to excellent.
However, almost two-thirds of the canola crop is behind normal development and 55 percent of spring cereals are behind, while about half the pulse crop is behind.
Rising soybean futures today supported canola. Weekly export sales reported by the USDA were larger than expected. Soy meal rose on good exports but soy oil fell.
Traders were also positioning ahead of Monday’s USDA seeded acreage report and quarterly stocks report.
Corn futures edged higher for the first time this week, supported by the gains in soybeans and good weekly export sales.
There is also concern about excess moisture in some parts of the Midwest. The northern Midwest is expected to get substantial rain over the next few days.
That rain will also affect the eastern Prairies, with southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba getting the largest accumulations.
Wheat futures rose with nearby months gaining more than the deferred months. Cash values for soft red winter wheat at Gulf ports have risen after rain hurt crop quality in southern states, making it hard to find No. 2 grade wheat.
New crop hard and soft winter wheat edged lower on prospects for aggressive competition in the world market in the new crop year.
The International Grains Council today raised its forecast for global corn and wheat production.
It lifted its corn crop forecast by eight million tonnes to 963 million, still shy of last year’s record crop of 972 million. A bigger Chinese crop was the main reason for the increase.
Wheat production was pegged at 699 million tonnes, up five million from the last report, but still below the 710 million tonnes in 2013-14.
CWB today released its Pool Return Outlooks for the 2014-15 pools and Futures Choice pools.
Compared to the last PRO release in May, projected wheat returns are $25 to $26 per tonne lower, while projected returns for durum are $10 per tonne higher across all pools.
Canola projected returns for Early Delivery and Annual pools are $18 per tonne lower, whereas the Winter Pool is $15 per tonne lower. Malt barley and field peas projected returns remain unchanged.
For No.1 CWRS 13.5 percent protein, the early delivery pool is $280 per tonne, the annual pool is also $280 and the winter pool is $282.
ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2014 493.60 +10.30 +2.13%
Canola Nov 2014 470.70 +1.70 +0.36%
Canola Jan 2015 474.20 +1.20 +0.25%
Canola Mar 2015 474.20 +0.70 +0.15%
Canola May 2015 473.50 -0.50 -0.11%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 198.00 +1.00 +0.51%
Milling Wheat Oct 2014 199.00 +1.00 +0.51%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014 204.00 +1.00 +0.49%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 239.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2014 230.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014 232.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 125.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2014 132.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2014 134.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2014 1437 +21.25 +1.50%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1381.75 +20 +1.47%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1279.75 +14.25 +1.13%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1244.25 +15.25 +1.24%
Soybeans Jan 2015 1250.25 +14.75 +1.19%
Soybeans Mar 2015 1255 +13.5 +1.09%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 465.5 +13.8 +3.06%
Soybean Meal Aug 2014 445.8 +8.8 +2.01%
Soybean Meal Sep 2014 416.7 +6 +1.46%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 40.51 -0.14 -0.34%
Soybean Oil Aug 2014 40.63 -0.13 -0.32%
Soybean Oil Sep 2014 40.72 -0.09 -0.22%
Corn Jul 2014 442.75 +1.75 +0.40%
Corn Sep 2014 439 +3.25 +0.75%
Corn Dec 2014 443.25 +3.25 +0.74%
Corn Mar 2015 454 +3.25 +0.72%
Corn May 2015 461.25 +3.25 +0.71%
Oats Jul 2014 336.25 +1.75 +0.52%
Oats Sep 2014 333.5 -1.5 -0.45%
Oats Dec 2014 332 +0.25 +0.08%
Oats Mar 2015 329.25 +2.75 +0.84%
Oats May 2015 324.5 +4.5 +1.41%
Wheat Jul 2014 582.25 +6.75 +1.17%
Wheat Sep 2014 584.75 +0.5 +0.09%
Wheat Dec 2014 604 -2 -0.33%
Wheat Mar 2015 624.25 -3.75 -0.60%
Wheat May 2015 636.25 -5.25 -0.82%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 679 +5.25 +0.78%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 686.75 +2 +0.29%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 698 +1.25 +0.18%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 709.75 +0.25 +0.04%
Spring Wheat May 2015 716.75 +1 +0.14%
Kansas City
KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014 721 +7 +0.98%
KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014 714.75 +1.25 +0.18%
KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014 718 -1 -0.14%
KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015 721.75 -1.5 -0.21%
KC HRW Wheat May 2015 718.5 -2.25 -0.31%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell 66 cents at $105.84 US per barrel.
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 93.40 cents US, up from 93.27 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0707 Cdn.
The TSX was up about 48 points in late afternoon trade.
U.S. stock indexes were a little down with financial stocks falling after New York’s attorney general filed a suit against British ban Barclays accusing the British bank of giving an unfair edge in the United States to high-frequency trading clients.
