Canadian farmers continue to hold tightly to old crop canola stocks, helping spark a more than two percent rally in the July contract Thursday.
Concerns about slow crop development, cool weather and the potential for harvest problems are causing farmers to keep grain in the bin.
The impact on the new crop November contact is less pronounced. November rose only $1.70 per tonne and the premium of July over November widened to $22.90 per tonne.
Traders were also positioning ahead of Friday’s Statistics Canada seeded acreage survey. We’ll cover the report at Producer.com.
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Saskatchewan Agriculture’s crop report today said that 73 percent of the canola crop in the province is in good to excellent condition while 82 percent of the spring wheat is good to excellent.
However, almost two-thirds of the canola crop is behind normal development and 55 percent of spring cereals are behind, while about half the pulse crop is behind.
Rising soybean futures today supported canola. Weekly export sales reported by the USDA were larger than expected. Soy meal rose on good exports but soy oil fell.
Traders were also positioning ahead of Monday’s USDA seeded acreage report and quarterly stocks report.
Corn futures edged higher for the first time this week, supported by the gains in soybeans and good weekly export sales.
There is also concern about excess moisture in some parts of the Midwest. The northern Midwest is expected to get substantial rain over the next few days.
That rain will also affect the eastern Prairies, with southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba getting the largest accumulations.
Wheat futures rose with nearby months gaining more than the deferred months. Cash values for soft red winter wheat at Gulf ports have risen after rain hurt crop quality in southern states, making it hard to find No. 2 grade wheat.
New crop hard and soft winter wheat edged lower on prospects for aggressive competition in the world market in the new crop year.
The International Grains Council today raised its forecast for global corn and wheat production.
It lifted its corn crop forecast by eight million tonnes to 963 million, still shy of last year’s record crop of 972 million. A bigger Chinese crop was the main reason for the increase.
Wheat production was pegged at 699 million tonnes, up five million from the last report, but still below the 710 million tonnes in 2013-14.
CWB today released its Pool Return Outlooks for the 2014-15 pools and Futures Choice pools.
Compared to the last PRO release in May, projected wheat returns are $25 to $26 per tonne lower, while projected returns for durum are $10 per tonne higher across all pools.
Canola projected returns for Early Delivery and Annual pools are $18 per tonne lower, whereas the Winter Pool is $15 per tonne lower. Malt barley and field peas projected returns remain unchanged.
For No.1 CWRS 13.5 percent protein, the early delivery pool is $280 per tonne, the annual pool is also $280 and the winter pool is $282.
ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 493.60Â Â Â Â Â Â +10.30Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.13%
Canola Nov 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 470.70Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.70Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.36%
Canola Jan 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 474.20Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.20Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.25%
Canola Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 474.20Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.70Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.15%
Canola May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 473.50Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.50Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.11%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 198.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.51%
Milling Wheat Oct 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 199.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.51%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 204.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.49%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014      239.00      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2014      230.00      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014      232.00      unch      0.00%
Barley Jul 2014      125.00      unch      0.00%
Barley Oct 2014      132.50      unch      0.00%
Barley Dec 2014      134.50      unch      0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Â
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1437Â Â Â Â Â Â +21.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.50%
Soybeans Aug 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1381.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +20Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.47%
Soybeans Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1279.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +14.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.13%
Soybeans Nov 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1244.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +15.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.24%
Soybeans Jan 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 1250.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +14.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.19%
Soybeans Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 1255Â Â Â Â Â Â +13.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.09%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 465.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +13.8Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.06%
Soybean Meal Aug 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 445.8Â Â Â Â Â Â +8.8Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.01%
Soybean Meal Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 416.7Â Â Â Â Â Â +6Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.46%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 40.51Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.14Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.34%
Soybean Oil Aug 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 40.63Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.13Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.32%
Soybean Oil Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 40.72Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.09Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.22%
Corn Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 442.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.40%
Corn Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 439Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.75%
Corn Dec 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 443.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.74%
Corn Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 454Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.72%
Corn May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 461.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.71%
Oats Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 336.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.52%
Oats Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 333.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.45%
Oats Dec 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 332Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.08%
Oats Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 329.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.84%
Oats May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 324.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.41%
Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 582.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +6.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.17%
Wheat Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 584.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.09%
Wheat Dec 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 604Â Â Â Â Â Â -2Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.33%
Wheat Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 624.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -3.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.60%
Wheat May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 636.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -5.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.82%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 679Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.78%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 686.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +2Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.29%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 698Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.18%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 709.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.04%
Spring Wheat May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 716.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.14%
Kansas City
KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 721Â Â Â Â Â Â +7Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.98%
KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 714.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.18%
KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 718Â Â Â Â Â Â -1Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.14%
KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 721.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.21%
KC HRW Wheat May 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 718.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.31%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell 66 cents at $105.84 US per barrel.
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 93.40 cents US, up from 93.27 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0707 Cdn.
The TSX was up about 48 points in late afternoon trade.
U.S. stock indexes were a little down with financial stocks falling after New York’s attorney general filed a suit against British ban Barclays accusing the British bank of giving an unfair edge in the United States to high-frequency trading clients.
