July canola closes down

Grains were the second-strongest commodities category Wednesday, but even so they only rose less than one percent.

Moderate gains in everything else left only May oats futures and July canola futures in the red.

Small factoids helped buoy the grains markets, even as stock markets moderately sold off.

Slightly better corn exports and feedgrain demand seemed to improve that crop’s outlook. The Chinese government reduced some production supports for soybeans, so analysts were anticipating some decrease in acreage for that crop.

The slight strength in overall crop prices was mostly due to the weakening U.S. dollar, which has the effect of making U.S. denominated crop futures appear to move higher. Buyers find it takes less of their domestic currency to buy more of the U.S. denominated crop, so there is an incentive to buy more.

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The Canadian dollar was slightly higher, staying above 83 cents, which suppresses the value of Canadian dollar denominated canola futures contracts. If the loonie strengthens and the nominal value of canola futures stays the same, they become more expensive-seeming in the eyes of U.S. dollar based buyers or people comparing canola to other crop futures.

Wheat has been weak recently but rose Wednesday. Next week the annual Kansas Wheat Quality Tour will give analysts and the markets a chance to get a better sense of what’s really happening in the hard red winter wheat zone – a subject of much discussion after a mixed-bag of situations in recent months.

Oats futures were also relatively weak Wednesday.

Stock markets fell moderately on signs that the U.S. economic recovery is faltering. However, in the bizarre world of bad-is-good that has gripped markets since 2008, the prospects of a weaker U.S. economy cheered everyone who fears the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank is nearing a rate hike. As in Canada, as economic conditions weaken, the need to boost rates recedes, giving commodity investors a reason for relief.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.52 to US$58.58 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US83.65 cents, up from 83.19 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.1954.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2015    456.20    +2.00    +0.44%
Canola Jul 2015    447.00    -2.90    -0.64%
Canola Nov 2015    439.00    -3.20    -0.72%
Canola Jan 2016    440.00    -3.60    -0.81%
Canola Mar 2016    440.20    -3.50    -0.79%

Milling Wheat May 2015    202.00    +3.00    +1.51%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015    205.00    +4.00    +1.99%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015    210.00    +3.00    +1.45%

Durum Wheat May 2015    313.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015    303.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015    308.00    unch    0.00%

Barley May 2015    205.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Jul 2015    207.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Oct 2015    192.00    unch    0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans May 2015    988.5    +11    +1.13%

Soybeans Jul 2015    988    +10.75    +1.10%
Soybeans Aug 2015    982.25    +10.75    +1.11%
Soybeans Sep 2015    968.75    +9.75    +1.02%
Soybeans Nov 2015    961.75    +8.75    +0.92%
Soybeans Jan 2016    967.75    +8.75    +0.91%

Soybean Meal May 2015    324.2    +5.5    +1.73%
Soybean Meal Jul 2015    322.4    +4.9    +1.54%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015    320.3    +4.6    +1.46%

Soybean Oil May 2015    31.47    +0.24    +0.77%
Soybean Oil Jul 2015    31.64    +0.26    +0.83%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015    31.72    +0.26    +0.83%

Corn May 2015    363.75    +2.75    +0.76%
Corn Jul 2015    367.75    +3.25    +0.89%
Corn Sep 2015    374.75    +3    +0.81%
Corn Dec 2015    385.5    +3    +0.78%
Corn Mar 2016    397    +3.25    +0.83%

Oats May 2015    233.25    -2.25    -0.96%
Oats Jul 2015    240.75    unch    0.00%
Oats Sep 2015    247.5    -0.25    -0.10%
Oats Dec 2015    256.75    +3    +1.18%
Oats Mar 2016    265.75    +3.25    +1.24%

Wheat May 2015    477.25    +5.75    +1.22%
Wheat Jul 2015    483.5    +7.25    +1.52%
Wheat Sep 2015    493.25    +7.5    +1.54%
Wheat Dec 2015    511.5    +8.25    +1.64%
Wheat Mar 2016    528.75    +8.75    +1.68%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2015    535.25    +6.75    +1.28%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015    548.75    +7.5    +1.39%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015    559.5    +8.25    +1.50%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015    571.5    +7.75    +1.37%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016    587    +8.25    +1.43%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat May 2015    500.75    +3.5    +0.70%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015    509.5    +6.5    +1.29%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015    521    +7.25    +1.41%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015    540.5    +6.5    +1.22%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016    553.75    +6.25    +1.14%