LONDON (Reuters) — The International Grains Council on Thursday forecast global corn and wheat production would fall in 2015-16, leading to a drawdown in stocks.
Global corn output was forecast to fall to 941 million tonnes, down from 990 million in the prior season, reflecting a retreat in yields from the high levels of the preceding year, the IGC said in a monthly update.
The IGC said global corn consumption was projected to fall in 2015-16 to 961 million tonnes from 974 million reflecting anticipated reduced feeding to animals in areas where huge crops had stimulated use in the current season.
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Corn stocks at the end of the 2015-16 were projected to fall to 171 million tonnes, down from 191 million a year earlier.
“A retreat in stocks is anticipated led by major exporters where (corn) inventories are seen dropping by almost one-quarter,” the IGC said.
The IGC put global wheat production in 2015-16 at 709 million tonnes, down 10 million tonnes from the prior season.
Wheat consumption was expected to edge up slightly to 711 million tonnes from 708 million, leading to a modest drawdown in stocks to 196 million from 198 million.
Total grain stocks at the end of the 2015-16 season were expected to fall by 23 million tonnes to 406 million from year earlier levels.
“Carryover (total grain) stocks at the end of the 2015-16 season are seen remaining comfortable, albeit five percent lower year-on-year … the ratio of stocks to use is expected to match the five-year average,” the IGC said.
